UFC on Fox 17 Results: 10 Burning Questions Heading into 2016
UFC on Fox 17 is in the books. The results are as follows:
UFC on Fox 17 Main Card
- Rafael dos Anjos def. Donald Cerrone, TKO (Round 1, 1:06)
- Alistair Overeem def. Junior dos Santos, TKO (Round 2, 4:43)
- Nate Diaz def. Michael Johnson, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Randa Markos, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Prelims on Fox Sports 1
- Charles Oliveira def. Myles Jury, submission (Round 1, 3:05)
- Nate Marquardt def. C.B. Dollaway, knockout (Round 2, 0:28)
- Valentina Shevchenko def. Sarah Kaufman, split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
- Tamdan McCrory def. Josh Samman, submission (Round 3, 4:10)
- Nik Lentz def. Danny Castillo, split decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
- Cole Miller vs. Jim Alers—no-contest, eye poke (Round 2, 1:44)
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass
- Kamaru Usman def. Leon Edwards, unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
- Vicente Luque def. Hayder Hassan, submission (Round 1, 2:13)
- Francis Ngannou def. Luiz Henrique, knockout (Round 2, 2:53)
That card closes the book on MMA in 2015, and it's time to take a look back and a look forward.
2015 was quite the year for the UFC, and MMA as a whole.
The highs were all the way in the clouds. Young talent emerged. Old talent realized their dreams. Champions posted breakout performances, and the sport touched the hearts of millions of new fans.
The lows, however, were devastating. Legends fell. Legacies were tarnished. Athletic commissions and promotions alike showed that they cannot be trusted.
With all that in mind, it's worth discussing what the key questions are entering this new year and what their answers may be.
What Will Happen with Ronda Rousey?
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What Happened in 2015?
This one leaves Lorenzo Fertitta awake at night. Ronda Rousey achieved a level of mainstream relevance that has never been seen before in MMA history and appealed to demographics that were once viewed as unreachable by promoters. Then she lost in devastating fashion to Holly Holm at UFC 193.
With so much of her mystique tied to her unstoppable aura, and with questions about her longevity in the sport getting asked well before she got Holmed, it's hard not to wonder if Rousey will remain a UFC fighter by 2016's end.
What Could Happen in 2016?
There is a lot to consider when it comes to Rousey's 2016, and it's probably not as simple as "if she loses to Holm in a rematch, she goes to make movies full-time, and if she wins, she's back."
Hollywood is a tricky thing, and there are two big things to remember. First, while movie stars make substantially more than you or me, their ceiling is substantially lower than true prizefighters. Plain and simple.
For the sake of comparison, Seth Rogen and James Franco made $6.5 million each for their work in The Interview, and they weren't just appearing in bit parts or making cameos. Conor McGregor might be set to shake up the UFC's pay structure (Warning: NSFW language), at least for the organization's biggest names, and if he can indeed start pulling in paychecks in the $20 million range, there's no reason Rousey shouldn't be doing the same. That would blow away anything Rousey could make as an actress.
Not only that, but it's worth remembering how quickly Gina Carano went from Strikeforce to Haywire to straight-to-DVD garbage and how she got her biggest role to date (as Angel Dust in 2016's Deadpool) when she once again became a hot act (Warning: NSFW Language) in MMA.
Of course, that looks into just one of the possibilities for Rousey. She could retake the title and get right back to business. She could win her title and retire to a life of luxury in Tahiti. She could lose and still maintain a spot as one of MMA's top draws.
There are so many moving parts here, and so many of those parts could change by the end of next year. It's impossible to know where Rousey will be 12 months from now.
Will the Reebok Deal Be Any Less Terrible for Fighters?
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What Happened in 2015?
The UFC rolled out uniforms for their fighters, and to label the endeavor as a comedy of errors would be inaccurate. Yes, the typos, "misprints" and complete lack of cultural awareness have been utterly hilarious. Unfortunately, the reality of the deal is that fighters are hurting. Big time.
While folks like Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor are likely making bank on the deal, most of the hundreds of other fighters on the UFC roster are worse off. Some much, much worse off.
What Could Happen in 2016?
Fighters were vocal about their dissatisfaction with the Reebok deal for a time, but that unsurprisingly died down before the uniforms were officially rolled out. Since then, the dissatisfaction has been quieter...but still apparent.
The most obvious sign is the huge uptick in the fighters leaving the UFC. Phil Davis and Josh Thomson are already in Bellator. More importantly, elite talents such as Benson Henderson, Aljamain Sterling and Alistair Overeem may not be far behind. That's on top of uber-prospects like Aaron Pico, Tyrell Fortune and Ed Ruth all passing on the UFC to sign with Bellator.
Will the UFC start rethinking how it distributes the Reebucks? Or is content in letting talented fighters go in order to make room for its handpicked stars like Sage Northcutt and Paige VanZant? Time will tell.
How Many More Fighters Will the UFC Lose to Free Agency?
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What Happened in 2015?
Phil Davis left the UFC. Then Josh Thomson. Then Top 10 names Ben Henderson, Aljamain Sterling and Alistair Overeem entered free agency. It's a new day for the UFC—one that could mark the end of the promotion's days as the exclusive home of top-notch MMA.
What Could Happen in 2016?
That's the question, isn't it? The UFC probably wasn't all that worried about keeping Davis, given how he was locked out of the title picture and left with a loss to Ryan Bader. They probably didn't lose any sleep over Thomson, who was 36 years old and riding a three-fight losing streak.
Henderson, though? He's a Top 10 name in two divisions. Sterling? He's arguably in the Top Five at 135. Oh, and now Overeem? Yeah, he now has wins over four different UFC heavyweight champs in his pocket, including the current champ, Fabricio Werdum.
Those, by the way, are just the free agents we know about.
Does this completely stem from the Reebok deal? It's possible, but it's also possible the UFC is taking a new approach to its roster.
The UFC has been shifting away from its "UFC-first" style of promoting cards and has been putting a greater focus on individual fighters. That's a wise move, of course, but it also leaves talented yet functionally interchangeable fighters such as Thomson and Henderson out in the cold.
Is the UFC actively trying to push these fighters out to make room for its handpicked stars? Is this just a byproduct of the increased competition from foreign promotions? Does the UFC plan on making any moves to fix things?
Very interesting stuff.
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Will Any of the UFC's Handpicked Stars Shake Out?
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What Happened in 2015?
The UFC long leaned on its own brand to promote fights, but a disastrous 2014 showed without a shadow of a doubt that this approach just doesn't work anymore. 2015 saw the organization allow its top names, most notably Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor, to transcend the brand. The UFC is grooming their successors, Paige VanZant and Sage Northcutt, and they're likely to expand that stable in the future.
The trouble with investing in fighters is that there is no guarantee of success in the cage or how fans will respond. How things pan out for these fighters in 2016 will go a long way in determining whether or not the UFC is able to manufacture stars, or if this remains something that has to happen organically.
What Could Happen in 2016?
The UFC has put VanZant and Northcutt front and center in recent months, and there has been a definite response from fans. Whether or not that is sustainable, however, remains to be seen.
VanZant's in-cage credibility took a huge hit when Rose Namajunas trounced her at UFC Fight Night 80. It's worth watching how she rebounds from that, and it's also worth keeping an eye on how the UFC handles her over the coming months.
Northcutt, on the other hand, has looked solid in the cage thus far, but the response to his 1950s Jimmy Olsen persona is described well by this three-second video. The fans could easily turn on Northcutt in a hurry and, again, it's easy to wonder how the UFC would handle that.
Looking past that, are VanZant and Northcutt really stars in their own right at this point? Rousey was already holding gold in Strikeforce when she became a big name, and McGregor had a clear path to the UFC title when he first blew up. With the "VanZant is a Top 10 strawweight" train officially derailed, will she remain a key player for the UFC going forward? And is Sage anything more than a "flavor of the month" guy at this point?
If they do manage to keep luring fans, is the formula for creating a star in MMA really as simple as going full Mike Jeffries?
These are important questions that will be answered by 2016's end.
Will Anything New Happen with the Class Action Lawsuit Against the UFC?
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What Happened in 2015?
Nate Quarry, Cung Le and Jon Fitch filed a class action antitrust lawsuit against the UFC in 2014, and a number of other fighters joined soon after. That has been one of the most important, albeit overlooked, stories of 2015.
Because of the molasses-like speed of the courts, headlines have not been especially plentiful, but the fighters cleared two big hurtles in 2015 while twice stumbling.
Breaking in their favor, the UFC's motion to dismiss got shot down. Obviously, that's important (since the motion to dismiss could have ended things then and there), but it wasn't an unexpected turn. Second, the discovery portion of the case started in full in October, and that could bring a lot of nitty-gritty financial (and previously confidential) information to the surface over the next year.
It wasn't all smooth sailing for the plaintiffs, however, as the case was passed from California (which traditionally favors workers) to Nevada (which traditionally favors management). Not only that but, the FTC ended its second antitrust investigation into the UFC in November. While that doesn't directly hurt the plaintiffs, it does lower the heat on Zuffa at this time.
What Could Happen in 2016?
Everything I said last year about this lawsuit remains true today, particularly this part:
"First, the discovery portion of the case could potentially bring the secretive inner workings of Zuffa to light. Remember, the mysterious UFC fighter contract became part of the public sphere during the legal battle between Eddie Alvarez and Bellator in 2013...and that didn't actually involve Zuffa directly. Details like fighter wages and pay-per-view buyrates could finally come to light.
"
The slow pace of this court battle means that it won't dominate the news cycle in any serious way, but the stakes remain high. Will the UFC try to settle the case? Will it let the plaintiffs dig through all their inner workings? Will more fighters join in? Who will end up taking the stand during the case?
So many questions and such an agonizingly long wait for answers...
What Will We See out of Bellator?
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What Happened in 2015?
Bellator did a great job of both differentiating itself from the UFC and drawing solid ratings in 2015. Mixing together nostalgia, legitimate high-level action and some ol' fashioned freak-show appeal, Bellator cultivated a unique product that appeals to a deceptively broad audience.
The only trouble, however, is this is not a sustainable promotional strategy. There are only so many fights like Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock to go around, and Bellator can't rely on them to be its sole source of revenue.
What Could Happen in 2016?
Things are starting to get quite interesting for Bellator right now. The centerpiece of Scott Coker's Bellator has been throwback fights. Tito Ortiz vs. Stephan Bonnar and Ken Shamrock vs. Kimbo Slice have been the biggest main events to date, with no other events coming close.
The trouble is that Shamrocks and Slices are hard to come by, have a short shelf life and lean on novelty appeal more than anything else. Though Bellator has a big event set for February, headlined by Ken Shamrock vs. Royce Gracie 3, the promotion desperately needs reinforcements.
That is where things start getting fun.
Could Coker turn to free agency and look to turn somebody like Aljamain Sterling into a top name? Is Bellator going to pin its hopes on homegrown stars like Will Brooks and Liam McGeary? Will it try to dust off other old favorites like Frank Shamrock, Randy Couture and Don Frye?
It's too early to tell, but it's easy to be excited. There are lots of interesting possibilities for Bellator.
Which Fighters Will Fail Drug Tests?
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What Happened in 2015?
Nick Diaz, Anderson Silva, Hector Lombard, Gilbert Melendez, Mike Richman and Alexander Shlemenko were all suspended for failed drug tests. Jon Jones was caught using cocaine. The UFC may have covered up a suspicious Vitor Belfort drug test to make sure he could fight at UFC 152.
It was a tough year for MMA when it came to drug testing, and the UFC took a bit of action by functionally handing USADA a blank check to make the sport cleaner (though, Thomas Hauser's scathing report on USADA is worth remembering). Since then, Gleison Tibau and Mirko Cro Cop have both been hit with suspensions, and that leaves everyone to wonder...who's next?
What Could Happen in 2016?
As a disillusioned curmudgeon whose views on clean sport were permanently changed by the knowledge that, arguably, the greatest fighter of all time was caught with two different steroids in his system, I can't say anyone is above suspicion. We may as well just sit back and wait for the next suspension, no?
Will the CM Punk Signing Pay Off?
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What Happened in 2015?
Not much. The UFC signed CM Punk in 2014, and while he famously joined Milwaukee's Roufusport gym in the spring, there has been little in the way of real news regarding the Best in the World.
What Could Happen in 2016?
When it comes to the fight itself, UFC President Dana White says that Punk totally, definitely, absolutely will debut at some point in 2016, with (in this writer's opinion) UFC 200 being the most likely landing spot. While that's all well and good, it's getting harder and harder to figure out why everyone is bothering with this.
The time for a CM Punk shoot was back in 2014, when the pro wrestling world was still buzzing over his sudden departure from the WWE. His MMA debut felt long overdue back in June, and another six months of waiting hasn't helped make it more interesting. Oh, and he is still an unathletic 37-year-old with no combat sports background of any kind who is about to jump into one of the deepest divisions in the game.
At this point, it doesn't feel like there will be all that much payoff from a CM Punk run. Even at his peak in the WWE, he was not an exceptional pay-per-view draw and even wound up booked behind the company's face, John Cena, on multiple pay-per-view cards.
To this writer, it feels like the window of opportunity closed with Punk several months ago. Will I be proved wrong?
What Will Happen with Weight Cutting, Weight Classes?
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What Happened in 2015?
There has been a great deal of chatter over the last three months surrounding the future of weight cutting in MMA.
First came the nonsensical ban on IVs from USADA. While the ban on intravenous hydration is primarily due to the fact that it can be used to mask the use of other drugs, it became a major point of contention with fighters due to the fact that so many of them rely on it to recover from cutting weight. Despite the fact Mike Dolce provided a thoughtful, bulletproof argument for why that is a bad idea, it was nonetheless reiterated by the new MMA Rules and Regulations Committee, who also proposed adding new weight classes.
Of course, change is long overdue. One FC fighter Yang Jian Bing died earlier this month due to health issues stemming from a weight cut, and he isn't the first fighter this appears to have happened to. Still, it feels like everyone is going about this the wrong way, looking to regulate the problem away rather than address the real problem: overbearing promoters.
What Could Happen in 2016?
Realistically speaking? Probably nothing, at least at the top of the game. The problem with weight cutting isn't with the fighters, it's with the promoters, more specifically the UFC and even more specifically, Joe Silva and Dana White.
Keep in mind, White makes the most out of every opportunity to publicly shame grown men on national television for missing weight ahead of an exhibition fight on a reality show with basically no stakes. And Silva? Yeah, he says that fighters who miss weight for short-notice bouts aren't doing him a favor by stepping up (lie) because he could have found somebody else who could have made weight (probably a lie, as detailed by MMAJunkie.com) and that he doesn't pressure fighters into taking short-notice fights if they don't think they can make weight (definitely a lie).
To be blunt, the concept of strict weight classes is stupid. Would Charles Oliveira's win over Myles Jury at UFC on Fox 17 have been more impressive if he made 145 pounds? What if the fight was at a catchweight of 150 pounds? Is there really a point to putting these fighters through a dangerous weight cut if neither man is remotely close to a title shot?
There's no way the UFC is going to change its weight classes, and because of that, it's unlikely that any other high- or medium-level promotions will do the same.
As for the IV ban, that is going to have tragic consequences. The question is if those consequences will be felt in the immediate future or at some point down the line.
What Will Happen with Conor McGregor?
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What Happened in 2015?
Dennis Siver, Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo. Knocked out, knocked out and knocked out. Conor McGregor worked his way up the ladder to become one of the hottest names in MMA (with his only real competition for the top spot being Ronda Rousey) and now that he holds undisputed UFC gold, he might just bring about some big changes in the UFC's business practices.
What Could Happen in 2016?
McGregor is the UFC's greatest enemy right now. He's a fighter with all the leverage in the world and is willing to use that to squeeze every penny he can out of the promotion (which he should, since this is prizefighting). There are likely to be two major sources of tension for the UFC and the McGregor camp.
First, he's just plain going to demand more money from the UFC. It's a simple tactic that is generally underutilized in MMA, where fighters' managers are all too often unwilling to rock the boat. As previously discussed, he's looking for more than $20 million per fight from here on out, and it's hard to say he doesn't deserve it.
Second, McGregor does not care about weight classes one bit; he simply cares about fighting the biggest opponents he has a realistic chance of beating. At the UFC 194 post-fight press conference (Warning: NSFW Language) he made it clear he had no intention of vacating the featherweight title but also made it clear that taking the lightweight strap was at the top of his to-do list. While that may not seem like much, the thinly veiled message is that McGregor is willing to tell the UFC: "No, I do not care about your standard operating procedures, I only care about getting the biggest paydays."
Everything about McGregor, both in and out of the cage, is exciting to watch. Fun times are just over the horizon.
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