Sun Bowl Betting: Miami vs. Washington State Odds, Analysis and Pick

They call it playing under the radar, and the Washington Cougars did just that this season, combining an improving program with low expectations and limited exposure to go 8-1 against the spread over their last nine games. Coming off their first winning campaign in over a decade, the Cougars look to finish in style when they meet Miami in the Sun Bowl. 

Sun Bowl point spread: Cougars opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.7-29.4 Cougars

Why the Hurricanes can cover the spread

Miami started this season 3-0—with a win over Nebraska—then lost three of its next four games and its head coach along the way. The Hurricanes then recovered and won four of their last five games, including their last two over Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, to finish at 8-4 overall (5-3 ACC play).

Miami is 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 ATS since making that change at the coaching position.

The Canes jumped out to a 20-0 lead on the Panthers in the season finale and held on from there, taking that game outright as seven-point underdogs. On the day, Miami outgained Pitt 377-331, and most of the Panthers' yardage came while playing catch-up.

The Hurricanes have now outgained three of their last four opponents. They're also 4-2 ATS this season as underdogs on the betting line.

Why the Cougars can cover the spread

Wazzu began its fourth season under head coach Mike Leach 2-2, with a pair of one-score losses. But the Cougars then announced their intentions for the future by winning six of their next seven games, knocking off the likes of Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA along the way. Washington State then laid an egg in an Apple Cup loss to Washington in the season finale, but it finished 8-4 overall—its best record in a dozen seasons—and 6-3 in Pac-12 play.

The Huskies outplayed the Cougars, but prior to that, WSU had outgained six of its previous seven opponents.

For the season, Washington State ranks in the top 20 in the country in total offense, led by quarterback Luke Falk, who's thrown for almost 4,300 yards and 36 touchdowns against eight interceptions.

Smart pick

Motivation can be everything in a bowl game, and while Wazzu is trying to build on something, Miami resides in a twilight zone. The smart money here plays the Cougars.

Betting trends

Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.

Washington State is 0-3 SU in its last three bowl games.

The total has gone over in five of the last six Sun Bowls.

The underdog has covered in five of the last six Sun Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.