Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
On Saturday, UFC on Fox 17 will feature a lightweight title tilt between champion Rafael dos Anjos and No. 2-ranked contender Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone.
Dos Anjos stunned the division with his defeat of Anthony Pettis at UFC 185 earlier in 2015. He was thought to just be a warm body against the flashy American, but the Brazilian walked right through him en route to the gold. Now, he makes his first defense on national network television.
Cerrone earned his title shot with eight consecutive victories. His last came against John Makdessi in May.
The two lightweights are sure to put on an entertaining affair in the main event, but who walks out with the belt?
Bleacher Report finds out who holds the edge with the head-to-toe breakdown of Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone. Let's go.
Striking
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This fight could be reduced to a striker vs. grappler contest in the eyes of many, but that would be oversimplifying MMA and these two fighters. Rafael dos Anjos is a perfect example of that oversimplification with his championship-winning performance against Anthony Pettis.
Dos Anjos won that fight on the feet against one of the better strikers in the division. It showcased his overall growth as a fighter, but also made it clear that stylistic matchups are important in this game.
Even still, Cerrone has the edge on the feet. He matches up well with Dos Anjos, and with his length he will make it difficult for the Brazilian to find success. Cerrone is better with his kicks and knees. However, that could open the door for takedowns from the lightweight champion.
The battle in this category falls firmly in the challenger's corner.
Edge: Cerrone
Grappling
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This is where the champion lives.
Dos Anjos is an improved wrestler, and on the mat he is one of the top men in this division. His jiu-jitsu top game is smothering and active. He is relentless. The addition of constant ground-and-pound also assists in how well he performs from top position.
Cerrone’s takedown defense will play a large role in this fight. According to FightMetric statistics, Cerrone has a 69 percent takedown defense percentage and has only been dragged down twice in his last five fights.
This is Dos Anjos’ wheelhouse, but taking down Cowboy will be no easy task Saturday.
Edge: Dos Anjos
Submissions
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This category, too, will go to Dos Anjos, but it is a lot closer than folks think.
Cerrone has a quality submission game that is aided by his long limbs. A forgotten element of Cerrone’s record is that all of his WEC finishes were via submission. Despite his striking, it wasn’t until he reached the UFC that he began winning by KO/TKO. His penchant for striking can lull fighters into forgetting about his submission game.
Dos Anjos’ jiu-jitsu background and proven in-cage results still give him the edge, but he cannot sleep on Cerrone’s submission expertise.
Edge: Dos Anjos
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X-Factors
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Cerrone’s X-Factor: Getting Back Up Quickly
Dos Anjos can grind his opponents down if he stays on top, and that is why it will be important for Cerrone to get back up to his feet after takedowns.
Of course, he will try not to be taken down at all, but over five rounds that is unlikely to happen against someone the likes of Dos Anjos.
Cerrone is fantastic at getting back to his feet. That has never been as important as it will be for this fight.
Dos Anjos’ X-Factor: Distance
Cerrone is a long fighter, and that distance will be an obstacle for Dos Anjos to overcome when they meet in the main event.
The Brazilian has to get inside for his striking to be effective, and he cannot take shots from way outside if he wants the fight on the ground. Cerrone will easily stuff those takedown attempts. Dos Anjos may have to decide to eat a punch or two to force his way inside of Cerrone’s range.
That’s a dangerous proposition.
Prediction
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Perhaps I am still not giving Dos Anjos his due, but I am leaning quite heavily toward Cerrone in this fight.
I respect the run the champion has had and was thoroughly impressed when he not only defeated but dominated Anthony Pettis for the gold. But at some point he will be outgunned by elite-level fighters, and Cerrone is one of them.
That is not to say I would be shocked with another Dos Anjos win. I see his path to victory clearly in this fight, but I simply do not believe he will pull it off.
Dos Anjos will struggle with the range set by Cerrone, eat jabs and low leg kicks and expend a lot of energy trying to take down Cowboy. Eventually, Cerrone will increase the tempo of his striking game to earn the stoppage and his first world championship.
Prediction: Donald Cerrone defeats Rafael dos Anjos by TKO in the fourth round.
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