Matt Schaub: What a Difference a Week Makes

In week one, Matt Schaub looked like a high school quarterback suddenly thrust into the NFL spotlight.

In week two, he was Joe Montana reincarnated (except, of course, for the technicality that Joe Montana is alive and well).

So, which Matt Schaub, can we expect to see in week three against Jacksonville?

Ha, trick question.  They're both the same Matt Schaub.

The fact is, the failures of week one Matt Schaub were grossly overstated and the successes in week two were a little inflated.

Yes, I'm well aware that week one Matt Schaub passed for 166 yards, zero TD's, and one INT.  I'm also aware that week two Matt Schaub passed for 357 yards, four TD's, and zero INT's. 

But I'm also aware that the circumstances surrounding both performances were significantly different.

Let's start by looking at the Jets game. 

The fact is, that Schaub didn't miss many opportunities in that game. 

The Texans under Kubiak have historically struggled against 3-4 defenses.  This is because 3-4 defenses generally have large, strong nose tackles whose primary function is to take up blockers so their athletic linebackers can run free and create havoc.

This doesn't mesh well with Alex Gibb's lighter offensive linemen.  When plagued with an especially undersized and weak center like Chris Myers, that larger nose tackle can progress from "taking up blockers" guy to "wearing Matt Schaub as a jock strap" guy.

Kris Jenkins played this role well.

Like everything else, however, this did not occur in a vacuum.  Rex Ryan also dialed up all sorts of blitzes which were executed to perfection (unlike the Texans' blitzes which were rather unsuccessful).

These blitzes came from a variety of angles, and the offensive line and Steve Slaton struggled to pick them up. 

To oversimplify, the priority system of offensive linemen in this scheme is to work inside-out.  This becomes difficult when Jenkins is rag-dolling Myers and the guards now have to account for both their man and a 360 pound cookie monster who mistook Schaub's head for a chocolate chip.

On blitzes, Slaton's job is to account for the most immediate threat first, which generally involves the first blitzer.

When this process fails, Schaub can't step into his throws and his accuracy suffers. 

Furthermore, Schaub struggled in recognizing the blitz and making the proper adjustments.  His mobility may have suffered as a result of the ankle injury, but Schaub also seemed to get frustrated and start looking for big plays.

Big plays mean longer routes.  Longer routes take more time to develop.  I think you can see where I'm going here.

Schaub's interception was a perfect example and a microcosm of the entire game.  Schaub's pre-snap read should have shown him an overload blitz from the right side.  Since the Jets had rarely shown blitz and backed off, Schaub should have expected it.

Fast forward to the snap—Slaton slipped out as a check down, but didn't help with a blitz.  That meant that more guys were coming in than the offensive line could block.  Instead of checking down, Schaub tried to hang in there to allow Jacoby Jones to come open and tried to force the ball down field.

Pick.  Ball game.

So what was different in the Tennessee game?

Two things: protection and play action. 

Tennessee is not afraid to blitz, but they rely more on pressure from their front four.  The Texans' offensive line did a much better job of protecting, and Slaton did a much better job of picking up the blitz when it did come. 

The result was that Schaub had more time—even if only a second or two—and more space to step in and make an accurate throw.

As I mentioned earlier, this time also allows the receivers to better develop their routes and given time, nobody can cover Andre Johnson.

Furthermore, despite the low rushing numbers, the play action was very effective against the Titan defense.  There may have been a bit of a residual effect from Slaton's effectiveness in the two meetings last year.

Suddenly provided time and space to operate, Schaub was able to generate more offense and put points on the board. 

So, back to the premise, what can we expect to see next week?

The anchor of the Jacksonville Jaguars' offensive line is big John Henderson, but he's more of a run stopper than pass rusher.  Then again, if he's facing Chris Myers, I know I'll have some heartburn watching the interior line this weekend.

Other than that, the Jaguar pass rush has been seriously lacking this year. 

They have one sack, courtesy of Reggie Hayward, who was put on the IR last week.  Last week, they were credited with one quarterback hit, and that came from cornerback Rashean Mathis.

The Jags are unlikely to suddenly discover their pass rush, especially in light of the blocking adjustments the Texans made between weeks one and two, so look for Schaub to have another big day. 

In his one game against them last year, he threw for 307 yards with three TD's and zero INT's, and I would expect similar numbers this week.

Now, how do we stop Maurice Jones-Drew?