NFL Predictions Week 14: Early Odds, Picks and Projections for Upcoming Schedule

Home field didn't matter last week, when 11 road teams sent NFL fans growling out of stadiums. As the playoff race intensifies, clubs battling for a postseason bid must continue that trend through Week 14.

Aside from the San Francisco 49ers combating the Cleveland Browns, every matchup contains some playoff significance. With so many teams in the hunt, those looking up in the standings can't afford any hiccups over the final four weeks.

Due to the dull NFC East, two games in particular are more important than they look. As of Tuesday morning, both possess an even betting line on Odds Shark. Meanwhile, a team previously penciled into the Super Bowl is suddenly fighting for a first-round bye.

Both sides need a victory in these three games, but the road clubs are poised to triumph.

Away	Home	Odds	Prediction
Minnesota Vikings	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -7.5	27-17 ARI
Buffalo Bills	Philadelphia Eagles	Even	30-24 BUF
Seattle Seahawks	Baltimore Ravens	SEA -6	27-6 SEA
San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns	Even	17-16 SF
Detroit Lions	St. Louis Rams	Even	23-15 DET
Tennessee Titans	New York Jets	NYJ -7.5	28-21 NYJ
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -3	38-35 PIT
Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Even	23-20 IND
San Diego Chargers	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -11.5	31-20 KC
Washington Redskins	Chicago Bears	CHI -2.5	23-21 CHI
Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	CAR -8.5	30-21 CAR
New Orleans Saints	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -3.5	34-30 TB
Oakland Raiders	Denver Broncos	DEN -8.5	27-20 DEN
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	20-12 GB
New England Patriots	Houston Texans	NE -3	28-19 NE
New York Giants	Miami Dolphins	Even	31-30 NYG

Buffalo Bills (Even) at Philadelphia Eagles

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The Philadelphia Eagles entered Week 13 in a downward spiral, coughing up 45 points in consecutive games. Pundits discussed Chip Kelly as the biggest head-coaching disaster ever despite guiding them to two 10-win campaigns. 

Then they beat the New Patriots and moved into a three-team tie atop the NFC East.

It's easy to now swing too far in the other direction. Philadelphia posted top-five offenses in 2013 and 2014, and its putrid division remains entirely up for grabs. Yet don't be surprised when the Buffalo Bills accomplish what their AFC East foes didn't and keep their own playoff hopes afloat.

Buffalo has experience extinguishing the flavor of the week, recently ending the Houston Texans' four-game winning streak with a 30-21 victory. The 6-6 Bills have won six of 10 Tyrod Taylor starts, and the Patriots were responsible for two of those defeats.

LeSean McCoy's return to Philadelphia will undoubtedly steal the headlines. The star running back spent six years with the Eagles before getting traded for linebacker Kiko Alonso last offseason. While he acknowledged the upcoming reunion, per ESPN.com's Mike Rodak, he stopped short of offering any bulletin-board material:

Philadelphia's No. 26 rushing defense will have its hands full against McCoy, who has exceeded 100 total yards in each of his last six games. Yet Sammy Watkins presents an even bigger matchup nightmare.

According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles rank No. 31 in defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA) to No. 1 wide receivers. The Bills are finally making the most of their talented second-year wideout, who has amassed 267 yards and three touchdowns over the Bills' past two games.

Philadelphia stunned New England with three touchdowns on defense and special teams, but such high-variance plays aren't a sustainable source of points. Quarterback Sam Bradford only mustered 120 yards on 24 passes, and those woes will rise to the surface without the other two units saving the day.

New York Giants (Even) at Miami Dolphins

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

The New York Giants and Miami Dolphins are both mediocre football teams. Neither deserves to play postseason football, and the Dolphins would need to win out and receive help to stay alive.

Yet the NFC East is just sitting there, unclaimed, like a plate of cookies left out for Santa Claus. All the Giants had to do was not blow one (maybe two if you want to get greedy) of their six losses by six points or fewer.

ESPN Stats & Info highlighted their tendency of charitably giving games away:

Along with poor clock management, the Giants constantly unravel behind a nonexistent running game, the turnover-prone Eli Manning and a league-worst defense incapable of making a key stop. They should be done. Tobias Funke should be able to declare that they blue their playoff spot, because a team where everyone stands around and hopes Odell Beckham Jr. masks their awfulness doesn't cut it.

But in football's worst division, it just might be. The 5-7 Dolphins won't garner any nicer sentiments after beating the Baltimore Ravens' backups by two points. Since demolishing the Texans in Week 7, they're 2-4 with a minus-70 scoring margin. 

Despite their identical records, New York sports a plus-14 point differential while Miami lags behind at minus-60. Each is inept defensively, but a good Manning sighting is a better bet than a good Ryan Tannehill outing. The law of averages kick in, giving the Giants a close victory for a change.

New England Patriots (-3) at Houston Texans

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The Patriots fell from undefeated to the AFC's No. 3 seed with two consecutive losses, their first back-to-back defeats since September of 2012. They haven't dropped three straight since 2002, Tom Brady's second season as their starting quarterback.

Yet these Pats face unique circumstances, forced to withstand injuries to Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. After completing over 61 percent of his passes in each of New England's first nine games, Brady has gone 72-of-136 (52.9 percent) with three of his six interceptions.

Missing skill players, however, isn't fully responsible for New England's sudden mortality. Pro Football Focus pointed out a breakdown in the trenches over that stretch:

Houston has the No. 3 passing defense and a decent pass-rusher in J.J. Watt, but it's also a 6-6 team with a minus-11 point differential. While the ingredients are there for a tricky Sunday night showdown, don't sell New England too short in light of recent events. 

The Patriots lost to the NFL's best defense (in an overtime game filled with questionable calls) and because of an avalanche of unrepeatable big plays. Just as the Eagles are unlikely to return a punt, block a punt and have an interception for a touchdown again, the Patriots are unlikely to suffer all those volatile outcomes to the Texans.