NFL Playoff Picture Breakdown and Analysis Through Week 13
The NFL playoff picture is a jumbled mess with just four games left on the schedule. We have major changes in the AFC playoff race after the New England Patriots lost a second straight game. The NFC is filled with quality contenders looking to lock down their spot.
Stumbling now can ruin any remaining aspirations a team may have. With parity rampant throughout the NFL, each game will take on heightened importance.
We’re going to break down and analyze the playoff picture as it currently stands entering Week 14.
Whether your favorite team will make it to the postseason could be determined as late as in the final game of the year. This drama is what fans love about the sport.
Will your favorite team earn a playoff berth? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
Current AFC Playoff Seeding
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AFC No. 1 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (10-2)
We finally have a new top overall seed in the AFC. The best team in the conference right now is the Cincinnati Bengals. Not only does their standing reflect this, but they are playing great football on both offense and defense.
Cincinnati has some playoff questions they’ll have to answer come January, but they’ve been excellent in the regular season. The offense is deep with talent, and the defense has been as steady as almost any across the league.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Steelers (7-5), at 49ers (4-8), at Broncos (10-2), vs. Ravens (4-8)
AFC No. 2 Seed: Denver Broncos (10-2)
The Denver Broncos are in the midst of one of the most interesting seasons in the NFL this year. The major positive for the franchise is how well the defense has played. Led by a deep pass rush and talented secondary, the Broncos potentially have a historically good unit.
Denver has a stretch of three tough games coming, starting with the Oakland Raiders this week. Divisional matchups are rarely easy. Then AFC North foes Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will try to overcome Denver and make their own playoff pushes.
Watch out for the Broncos.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Raiders (5-7), at Steelers (7-5), vs. Bengals (10-2), vs. Chargers (3-9)
AFC No. 3 Seed: New England Patriots (10-2)
A lot has changed for the New England Patriots since two weeks ago. This team seemed destined for a perfect regular season, blowing through opponents and making clutch plays whenever needed. Now, the Patriots are behind two teams for the top overall seed and a bye week.
New England has an easier remaining schedule than its competition, facing zero teams with a record above .500. It's also playing its worst football right now after dropping two straight games.
Remaining Schedule: at Texans (6-6), vs. Titans (3-9), at Jets (7-5), at Dolphins (5-7)
AFC No. 4 Seed: Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
It's incredible that the Indianapolis Colts are not only in the playoff race but actually lead their division at 6-6. The AFC South is so bad that the Colts’ undermanned roster led by Matt Hasselbeck is still atop the standings.
Their lead is not safe, though.
With several divisional matchups left down the stretch, the Colts could easily fall behind the Houston Texans and lose their grip on the lead. Even if quarterback Andrew Luck returns, nobody knows whether he will be fully healed from his numerous injuries.
Their Week 15 matchup against Houston could decide which team will win the AFC South. My money is on the Colts to pull through, but the fourth seed is the most uncertain playoff spot in the conference.
Remaining Schedule: at Jaguars (4-8), vs. Texans (6-6), at Dolphins (5-7), vs. Titans (3-9)
AFC No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)
Andy Reid and his coaching staff deserve a ton of credit for the 2015 season. After losing some close games early on and starting 1-5, the Chiefs didn’t give up. They’ve taken the season week by week and clawed their way back into the playoff picture. They are likely to win one of the wild-card berths now.
The Chiefs defense has been superb this year. It's allowed just 20 points per game, which is seventh in the NFL. But over the last eight games, Kansas City has given up an average of only 14.4 points a game. This is a Super Bowl-caliber defense.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Chargers (3-9), at Ravens (4-8), vs. Browns (2-10), vs. Raiders (5-7)
AFC No. 6 Seed: New York Jets (7-5)
The New York Jets win gritty games, which is a trait of a playoff team. New York’s physicality and overall mindset pulverize opponents over the course of 60 minutes. Its ability to take advantage of mistakes is why it currently sits in the sixth playoff seed.
With four games left, the Jets control their own destiny. Two easy matchups are next, and then they finish with two divisional foes.
If 10 wins is the minimum expected number for a wild-card berth, then the Jets are in a good place to hit it.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Titans (3-9), at Cowboys (4-8), vs. Patriots (10-2), at Bills (6-6)
Current NFC Playoff Seeding
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NFC No. 1 Seed: Carolina Panthers (12-0)
Carolina has one of the league's offenses that runs more often than passes, and that balance has allowed quarterback Cam Newton to reach new heights with his play. The Panthers rely on Newton to make clutch throws to a pedestrian receiving corps, but it has worked wonderfully thus far.
Now two games ahead in the race for the top overall seed in the NFC, Carolina controls its destiny.
The Panthers have already clinched their division, and it’s highly likely they’ll get the No. 1 seed.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Falcons (6-6), at Giants (5-7), at Falcons (6-6), vs. Buccaneers (6-6)
NFC No. 2 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
Although they're currently the second overall seed in the NFC playoff picture, the Arizona Cardinals have been the most impressive NFC team this season. The Cardinals' plethora of playmakers on both sides of the ball makes them a difficult team to oust. At 10-2, they're also close to solidifying a playoff berth.
Arizona is the league's highest-scoring team, which is largely a credit to the fantastic play of Carson Palmer and his terrific receivers. Head coach Bruce Arians has done a masterful job of maximizing his players' potential, as he's unafraid to bomb away with deep shot after deep shot to Michael Floyd, John Brown and J.J. Nelson as of late.
The Cardinals do have to play several tough teams in the coming weeks, with conference and divisional foes Minnesota and Seattle being the key two. If Arizona wins those, it will lock down a first-round bye quickly.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Vikings (8-4), at Eagles (5-7), vs. Packers (8-4), vs. Seahawks (7-5)
NFC No. 3 Seed: Green Bay Packers (8-4)
Green Bay ends up back in the third seed after Aaron Rodgers' miraculous Hail Mary in Detroit bailed out his struggle team. Now ahead of the Vikings due to their head-to-head win, the Packers should be able to bolster their record with two relatively easy contests in Weeks 14 and 15.
Their last two weeks could determine who wins the division, though.
Aaron Rodgers and company have to battle through injuries and inconsistency from playmakers and offensive linemen. Getting Eddie Lacy back on track after a Thanksgiving no-show would go a long way toward helping Green Bay win the NFC North, too.
I’d like to see head coach Mike McCarthy scheme some new looks to mix up a bland offensive design that doesn’t cater to his current receiving corps. That could help put this offense in better shape.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Cowboys (4-8), at Raiders (5-7), at Cardinals (10-2), vs. Vikings (8-4)
NFC No. 4 Seed: Washington Redskins (5-7)
Coming off a Monday Night Football loss, the Redskins own a tiebreaker over the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants to stay in first place in the NFC East. Washington holds that distinction despite having yet to win a road game this season, which speaks to the quality of the division in general.
The Redskins may be the worst team currently leading a division. If they can close out the season with eight wins, they should reach the playoffs, which would go a long way toward reaching legitimacy.
None of the Redskins’ remaining opponents have a winning record; however, three of the four are road games.
Remaining Schedule: at Bears (5-7), vs. Bills (6-6), at Eagles (5-7), at Cowboys (4-8)
NFC No. 5 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (8-4)
Right after the Vikings claim the divisional lead, they lose it. Most concerning is how they slipped from third to fifth. The Seahawks destroyed Minnesota, 38-7, and the Vikings must recover quickly.
A lot went wrong in Week 13 for Minnesota, but a bounce-back performance at Arizona can speak even more loudly about who this team is.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been great this season, but his receivers and offensive line have been among the worst in the NFL. It bears watching whether this young team can show growth after enduring some adversity.
Remaining Schedule: at Cardinals (10-2), vs. Bears (5-7), vs. Giants (5-7), at Packers (8-4)
NFC No. 6 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
It seems the Seattle Seahawks have awoken from their slumber. Their destruction of the Vikings followed an impressive home win against the Steelers in Week 12. With three consecutive cupcakes before facing the Cardinals in Week 17, the Seahawks can lock up a playoff spot if they do what is expected of them.
If Seattle unexpectedly drops a game in the next three weeks, the door opens for teams on the outside working to get in. The Seahawks reaching 10 wins would likely ensure their safety with at least the sixth seed.
Remaining Schedule: at Ravens (4-8), vs. Browns (2-10), vs. Rams (4-8), at Cardinals (10-2)
Teams on the Bubble
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AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
Although the Steelers trail in the wild-card race, they have the best team that is not currently in the playoff picture. They have several difficult matchups coming in the next two weeks, but if they manage to split those two games against the Bengals and Broncos, they'll have a good shot of sliding into the postseason.
The Steelers may be too far behind in the division to win the AFC North, and they are behind several other teams for the wild-card spot. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, which would make them a dangerous playoff threat if they can get there.
Remaining Schedule: at Bengals (10-2), vs. Broncos (10-2), at Ravens (4-8), at Browns (2-10)
Houston Texans (6-6)
The best team in the AFC South over the last month has been the Houston Texans. They aren’t overly dynamic with a plethora of playmakers or sexy quarterback play, but they are efficient and effective enough. The roster is top-heavy with stars like J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, and now younger players are beginning to help, too.
Outside of their Week 14 matchup with the Patriots, they have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Their Week 15 tilt against the Colts is the key matchup to watch.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Patriots (10-2), at Colts (6-6), at Titans (3-9), vs. Jaguars (4-8)
Buffalo Bills (6-6)
The Bills have all of the ingredients of a very good team, except for the head coach. Rex Ryan’s struggles with the Jets have followed him to the Bills. Buffalo leads the NFL in penalty yards per game, forfeiting 82.1 per week.
It should be concerning that Doug Marrone got more out of a similar version of this Bills team in 2014, sans an upgraded quarterback in Tyrod Taylor.
With four games left, the Bills still have a playoff shot if they win at least three of their remaining games. They likely need to win out.
Remaining Schedule: at Eagles (5-7), at Redskins (5-7), vs. Cowboys (4-8), vs. Jets (7-5)
NFC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
If any team is going to steal the final wild-card spot away from the Seahawks, it will be the Buccaneers. Yes, the team with a rookie quarterback that finished with the worst record in the NFL last season.
Behind Jameis Winston and a defense that has found life as the season has progressed, the Buccaneers are just one game out of the playoffs.
The next three games are going to be tough, but each is winnable for the Bucs. They finish with the Panthers on the road, but Carolina might rest its starters if it clinches the top seed by then. When asked whether he'd play his starters in Week 17 if the Panthers make it to 15-0, head coach Ron Rivera told Bill Voth of the Black and Blue Review, "Hypothetically speaking, yes—to a point. ... The reason I would is because I was on a team that had done the same thing, and we didn't, and it cost us in my opinion because I thought we were rusty."
A little help is needed, but the Buccaneers have a chance to make it if they play their best football down the stretch.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Saints (4-8), at Rams (4-8), vs. Bears (5-7), at Panthers (12-0)
Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
The reeling Falcons seem like a lost cause at this point. With five straight losses, the Falcons have ruined a hot start to the season. While Matt Ryan continues to show signs of major regression, several offseason acquisitions have also faltered as the season has progressed.
Atlanta is almost in a must-win-out situation. Anything worse than 10-6 is very unlikely to earn a playoff spot, considering the Seahawks and Buccaneers’ advantages with tiebreakers.
Remaining Schedule: at Panthers (12-0), at Jaguars (4-8), vs. Panthers (12-0), vs. Saints (4-8)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
It’s amazing that the Eagles are still in the playoff race. Tied for first place in the NFC East with the Redskins and Giants, this is the worst division in football right now. Two big divisional games left on the Eagles’ schedule could drastically sway how this season ends.
Philadelphia has to get its offense rolling. Chip Kelly deserves some blame for his decision-making in the past offseason, but his weekly schemes haven’t challenged defenses as much this year. He needs to get back to pushing the boundaries and utilizing space like he’s so well-known for.
Remaining Schedule: vs. Bills (6-6), vs. Cardinals (10-2), vs. Redskins (5-7), at Giants (5-7)
New York Giants (5-7)
The Giants continue to lose games that make you wonder how this regime will stay employed past 2015. Bad teams find a way to squander wins, and that defines this Giants team right now.
Nonetheless, the NFC East hasn’t buried them yet.
Four games against teams that match up well with them await the Giants now. New York needs at least two—if not more—wins to stay in this race. The odds aren’t looking good here.
Remaining Schedule: at Dolphins (5-7), vs. Panthers (12-0), at Vikings (8-4), vs. Eagles (5-7)
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Teams Out of Contention
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We have our first team that has been officially eliminated from the 2015 NFL playoffs. The Cleveland Browns continue to be terrible, having dropped seven straight games, and they could be in for a host of changes once the offseason rolls around.
They won't be alone for long as others rack up losses.
Below, you can see other teams that should start looking toward the 2016 NFL draft instead of the playoffs. It's going to be a long offseason for many of these franchises.
Teams Eliminated or Nearing Elimination from Playoffs
AFC: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns (officially eliminated), Miami Dolphins, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC: Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints
AFC Seeding Odds
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AFC No. 1 Seed
Best Odds: Cincinnati Bengals
The new holders of the top overall seed are in a good position to finish the season with home-field advantage in the playoffs. With two games left against 4-8 teams and a massive head-to-head Week 16 game against the Broncos, the Bengals control their own fate. Win out, and things are easy to decide.
Things get hairy if the Bengals lose a game, though. With such little separation between teams, one single game could be the difference between the first seed and the third.
Long Shot: Kansas City Chiefs
At 7-5, the Chiefs are having a better season than we expected two months ago. But they are a long way from capturing any of the top three seeds. Such a jump would take major failure from one or more of the current top three seeds.
AFC No. 2 Seed
Best Odds: Denver Broncos
Whether the Broncos stay in second, move to first or drop to third, they’re in a good position to make a Super Bowl run. This team is stacked with impact players on both sides of the ball. It must win in Week 16 against the Bengals if it wants home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but it helps that the Broncos host that game in Denver.
Long Shot: New York Jets
As well as the Jets have played, they would have to see chaos rain down upon the top three seeds to make it this high up. They're likelier to settle into one of the wild-card spots below.
AFC No. 3 Seed
Best Odds: New England Patriots
No one should be surprised if the Patriots ascend higher than the third seed in the last month of the season. But they will finish no worse than third, barring utter disaster.
This is not the same team that went 10-0, as injuries and sloppiness have changed the way this team must win games. Still, don’t expect it to be anything but a Super Bowl threat.
Long Shot: Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently out of the playoffs, the Steelers are the likeliest team to rise up and surge down the stretch. Their ceiling is the third seed, but that would take a considerable drop-off from one of the current top-three seeds. This is unlikely, as are the Steelers’ chances of making the playoffs as anything other than a wild-card team.
AFC No. 4 Seed
Best Odds: Houston Texans
It may be unlikely, but the Texans are still in the AFC South title hunt. The team trails the first-place Colts by a tiebreaker because it lost to Indianapolis at home this season. With favorable matchups coming, I’m taking the Texans as the team that will prevail.
The division has been dreadful for much of the season, but someone has to win. Houston has a better roster and easier schedule to finish the season.
Long Shot: Indianapolis Colts
Unless Andrew Luck comes strolling through the tunnel from here on out and immediately reverts to his 2014 form, the Colts will continue to look like a bad football team. Their remaining schedule isn’t too scary, but it’s hard to trust this team with a 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Don’t be surprised if the Colts miss the playoffs entirely.
AFC No. 5 Seed
Best Odds: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are one of the NFL's hottest teams. Head coach Andy Reid has them playing great team football, with every aspect of the roster contributing. Kansas City is a solid threat to do damage in the playoffs.
The ball-hawking defense has been lights-out in the last two months. Its athleticism, speed and intangibles on all three levels have routinely confounded opposing quarterbacks.
This is a dangerous matchup for every team across the league.
Long Shot: Buffalo Bills
It’s impossible to rule the Bills out of the playoff picture, but they are holding on by a thread right now. While others are trending upwards, the Bills are not. Their execution levels are as sporadic as anyone's in the NFL.
Buffalo could go on a tear to end the season, but that must happen right away for it to make the playoffs.
AFC No. 6 Seed
Best Odds: New York Jets
The second-best team in a quality AFC East division, the Jets have what it takes to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. They rely on a great defense and physical nature, which bodes well as the weather gets colder.
If rookie head coach Todd Bowles can lead this team to the playoffs in his first year, he will deserve some Coach of the Year votes.
Long Shot: Oakland Raiders
This just doesn’t look like the Raiders’ year, but there are many reasons for optimism about this young team. Quarterback Derek Carr and defensive end Khalil Mack have been spectacular this season, among other young, emerging studs.
With another strong offseason, the Raiders may find themselves in the divisional race.
NFC Seeding Odds
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NFC No. 1 Seed
Best Odds: Carolina Panthers
At 12-0, the Panthers are two games up on their competition for the top seed. With the way the Panthers run the ball and play defense, they’re difficult to beat. Factor in Cam Newton’s growth, and this is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Long Shot: Anyone else
Simply put, given Carolina's two-game lead, everyone is a long shot to challenge the Panthers.
NFC No. 2 Seed
Best Odds: Arizona Cardinals
How impressive are the Cardinals? They have the best offense in the NFL and are as deep with talent at playmaker positions as any team. Carson Palmer has a variety of young weapons and veterans at his disposal. He’s been playing at an MVP level all season.
Arizona’s defense hasn’t skipped a beat after losing Todd Bowles last year, either. The Cardinals are a great example of tremendous coaching and leadership, from the organizational top all the way to the players.
Long Shot: Minnesota Vikings
As well as the Vikings have played, this is a simple numbers game. While the Cardinals are playing great football and face an easier second-half schedule, the Vikings face a murderers' row. For the Vikings to earn the second seed, they may have to reach 12 wins, which is unlikely.
NFC No. 3 Seed
Best Odds: Minnesota Vikings
Although the Green Bay Packers currently sit in the third seed, I believe the Vikings are the better team. They do have a tougher schedule than the Packers, which makes this a tough prediction. Ultimately, this may be determined by their Week 17 collision in Green Bay.
Long Shot: Washington Redskins
At 5-7, the Redskins don’t have much of a shot at the third seed. But you can see below for what the Redskins can attain.
NFC No. 4 Seed
Best Odds: Washington Redskins
He may not have the best reputation with fans, but head coach Jay Gruden has done a really nice job with a limited roster in Washington. His game plans have been solid, often exploiting the weaknesses of opponents on a weekly basis.
Washington is clearly building its identity, but its core isn’t quite talented enough.
A weak secondary and below-average quarterback mean the Redskins must play their very best to become the divisional winners. Plus, they have to face several upstart teams that match up with them quite well.
Long Shot: New York Giants
The Giants feel like the better team, but they’ve blown too many opportunities to win this division. The Redskins have the tiebreaker over the Giants, which will make this a major uphill climb for them.
NFC No. 5 Seed
Best Odds: Green Bay Packers
At this point, the Packers are as inconsistent as anyone. Now back in the division lead, the Packers could be considered the favorite for the NFC North. But I don’t trust a team that needed a Hail Mary to beat the Lions.
Green Bay is likely going to make the playoffs, but this doesn’t look like a Super Bowl contender right now.
Long Shot: Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks shouldn’t be considered underdogs with their pedigree. They are right in the mix to make a Wild Card Round appearance. Moving up from the sixth seed to fifth wouldn’t be shocking at this point, especially after what we've seen in the past three weeks from both teams.
NFC No. 6 Seed
Best Odds: Seattle Seahawks
The last two weeks have shown this team's upside. The Seahawks have all the talent needed to win key games, even if they aren't as deep or playing as well as in years past. That doesn’t mean we should disrespect the two-time reigning NFC champions.
When compared to its competitors, this team has the better coach, better quarterback and better defense. That’s enough to win the sixth seed.
Long Shot: Atlanta Falcons
This team is trending downward as fast as any besides the Cleveland Browns. Five straight losses have completely changed the tone of the Falcons’ season. However, they’re just one game back from the Seahawks. We’ll see if they can turn their fortunes around soon.
Week 14 Games with Biggest Playoff Implications
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Washington Redskins (5-7) at Chicago Bears (5-7)
While the Washington Redskins are holding on as the NFC East leaders in a three-way tie, they need to win some road games to lock up the division. Their Week 14 opponent, the Chicago Bears, have mostly played impressive football since starting the season poorly.
This game’s outcome will dramatically affect the playoff race.
If the Bears lose, they’re basically out of the playoff picture as a wild-card threat. For the Redskins, a win keeps them in first place. A loss could set them back one game.
This matchup isn’t terribly appealing if you like top-tier football teams, but it might be entertaining, and the implications are certainly massive.
Atlanta Falcons (6-6) at Carolina Panthers (12-0)
While one of these teams continues to ascend in the win column, the other hasn’t notched a win in the last five weeks. The Falcons square off with the Panthers for their first of two meetings this month. If Atlanta doesn’t win at least one of those games, its playoff hopes will fade to black.
For Carolina, one more win puts it in position to clinch the top overall seed sooner than later. It's already clinched a playoff berth and the division, but home-field advantage should be the goal at this point.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-2)
In what is the most important AFC game this week, these two AFC North teams have a lot on the line. The showdown in Cincinnati will ultimately affect both the race for the top seed in the conference and the wild-card hunt.
This game also features two exciting teams that can light up the scoreboard in a hurry.
Pittsburgh needs this game more in terms of just reaching the playoffs. While Cincinnati is in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage, its playoff seat has almost been clinched.
We’ll see how the Steelers combat the Bengals’ deep playmaker core. Their defense must elevate its play in this game like it did in their previous meeting on Nov. 1.
New England Patriots (10-2) at Houston Texans (6-6)
Similarly to the aforementioned Steelers-Bengals matchup, the Patriots-Texans game is more important for the team sitting on the outside of the playoffs.
The Texans are tied record-wise with the Colts but trail due to tiebreakers. This means Houston must finish with a better record to win the division.
New England needs to get back on track before the playoffs begin. It's played sloppy football over the past two weeks without several offensive linemen and receivers available. Head coach Bill Belichick and his staff need to put together a game plan that can maximize their depleted roster.
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