Liberty Bowl 2016: Preview, Predictions for Kansas State vs. Arkansas
Date: January 2, 2016
Time: 3:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
While both the Kansas State Wildcats and the Arkansas Razorbacks had disappointing years overall, both squads have ended the season streaking just to get to bowl eligibility. And that's certainly an accomplishment worthy of, well, playing for a trophy that pits together both a Big 12 and an SEC squad.
K-State, after suffering a six-game losing streak, won its last three contests to get to 6-6. For Arkansas, after starting a putrid 1-3, the Razorbacks finished 6-2 over their last eight games to finish the year 7-5.
With that, let's check out how these two teams will stack up in Memphis, Tennessee, for the Liberty Bowl.
Keys to Victory for Kansas State
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1. Pass with precision
The Razorbacks' biggest weakness by far on defense is their secondary, finishing last in the SEC in pass yards per attempt (8.31) and last in completions of 20 yards or more (52). K-State isn't a pass-heavy team, in fact the Wildcats have been criticized this year for not relying on the rushing attack more. But both quarterback Joe Hubener and QB/WR combo Kody Cook have shown a penchant for airing it out in crucial moments. Expect the Wildcats to be very balanced but not afraid to pick apart Arkansas' secondary.
2. Shutdown Alex Collins
Arkansas' running back has been a terror this year, passing the 1,300-yard mark on the ground and proving to be the perfect complement to Brandon Webb. The Wildcats, known for their stout run defense in only giving up 159 yards per game, have to make the Razorbacks one-dimensional and force them to air it out.
Keys to Victory for Arkansas
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1. Beat K-State at its own game and control the clock
The Wildcats, under The Wizard himself in Bill Snyder, are masters of controlling time of possession. But Bret Bielema is a Snyder disciple himself as the co-defensive coordinator at K-State from 2002-03. So the Razorbacks need to flip the script in this matchup. Alex Collins needs to pound the ball effectively, the Razorbacks needs to grind out an early, two-possession lead and force the Wildcats to push the panic button.
2. Gash the Wildcats' secondary
Like the Razorbacks' themselves, Kansas State's weakness is its secondary. The Wildcats rank 119th in the FBS in pass defense, just one spot better than Arkansas, as it allows 283 yards through the air per game. Brandon Allen will be the more talented quarterback in this game, so he has to take advantage of the mismatch more effectively than Kansas State.
Players to Watch for Kansas State
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Kody Cook
No matter where he plays on the field, under center at quarterback or split out as a wide receiver, Cook has a knack for making the big plays as the most opportune times for the Wildcats. Against West Virginia in the last game of the year for K-State, after quarterback Hubener was hurt, Cook was subbed in and provided the necessary spark to give the Wildcats a comeback, a one-point win to earn bowl eligibility.
Morgan Burns
Everybody knows Stanford's Christian McCaffrey, the all-purpose yardage king. Well, he's second in the NCAA in return yards at 1,042. Kansas State's Morgan Burns is first with 1,047. He also leads the nation with four kickoff returns for a touchdown and has housed one on a punt return. Oh, and Burns can also block punts as he's done so numerous times this year.
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Players to Watch for Arkansas
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Alex Collins
An NFL talent at running back, Collins has rushed for more than 100 yards in nine games this season. This could be the junior's last game in a Razorback uniform, so Arkansas fans need to take a good look at him. Collins will also play a big role in the game, as how he runs against a very physical K-State defense will be a good indicator of how his draft stock will trend.
Deatrich Wise Jr.
Finishing the 2015 regular season sixth in the SEC in sacks with eight, Deatrich Wise will be the biggest force along the Razorback defensive line that the Kansas State Wildcats will have to contain. K-State's offensive attack is built on patience and attacking the holes. If Wise can cause enough disruption, that'll rattle the Wildcats game plan.
What They're Saying
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Bill Snyder, per K-State Athletics:
“We have a wonderful fan base, and so many people that save up their nickels and dimes throughout the course of the year, and the only vacation they take is the one after our (regular) season is over. It doesn’t make any difference where it is; they love to go and it’s why we have such great attendance year in and year out at bowl games. They are fully invested in our program and this (becoming bowl eligible) means a great deal to them.”
Bret Bielema, per Arkansas Athletics:
“On behalf of our coaches, student-athletes and administration, we are very excited to accept the bid to play Kansas State in the Autozone Liberty Bowl,” said head coach Bret Bielema. “To be able to play a quality Big 12 team that has special interest close to my heart from my time with Coach Snyder is a great opportunity. Our student-athletes are excited to go to Memphis and have the chance to close this season out on a high note in front of a what I’m sure will be a fired up crowd of Razorback fans.”
Prediction
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The proof is in the pudding for this one. Kansas State squeaked into bowl eligibility by beating lower tier Big 12 teams in the final three weeks, while the Razorbacks have been streaking in the SEC for the better part of two months with wins over the likes of Ole Miss and LSU.
K-State is always a tough team to play when Snyder is at the helm, but expect Allen to be the difference-maker in a game featuring two horrendous secondaries.
Score Prediction:
Arkansas 34, Kansas State 20
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