Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Houston vs. Florida State
Houston and Florida State kick off the New Year's Six bowl games when they clash in Atlanta in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Dec. 31.
The No. 18 Cougars, the highest-ranked Group of Five team, ripped off 10 consecutive wins to start the first season of the Tom Herman era. But Houston slipped in its penultimate regular-season game, falling 20-17 to Connecticut. The Cougars did bounce back and handle Navy 52-31 on Thanksgiving weekend before toppling Temple 24-13 to win the AAC Championship Game.
"That would be extremely special for this team and this university to be on the national stage," Herman said to reporters of the possibility of playing in a New Year's Six bowl game, via the Houston website. "You can't buy that advertisement. You can't buy that energy and enthusiasm that brings to a university."
The Cougars will step on that stage against the ninth-ranked Seminoles, who check in at 10-2. Florida State suffered its first loss of the season in heartbreaking fashion in late October, as Georgia Tech walked off with a 22-16 victory. Two weeks later, No. 1 Clemson downed the Seminoles 23-13. But on Thanksgiving weekend, Florida State handled Florida 27-2.
"If you're not in the playoff game, these are the games you want to be in," Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher said, per Tim Linafelt of Seminoles.com.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7Herman has produced an exciting Cougars offense, one that should test the Florida State defense.
On the other side, how will Houston's defense fare against a Seminoles offense highlighted by playmakers such as Dalvin Cook, Kermit Whitfield and Travis Rudolph?
Keys to Victory for Houston
2 of 7
Slow Dalvin Cook
Cook is one of the best running backs in the country, and the Cougars must contain the Florida State ground game.
Though the Seminoles still piled up 197 rushing yards on 30 carries against Clemson, Florida State struggled on the ground in its other loss. Georgia Tech kept the Seminoles to a season-low 70 rushing yards on 24 attempts.
Since then, however, Florida State has rolled to rushing outputs of 221, 197, 196, 193 and 144 yards.
When asked what he's seen of Cook, Herman said, according to Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle: "Just on SportsCenter. He seems to be showing up a lot on there lately."
Maintain Red-Zone Efficiency
The Cougars rank in the middle of the FBS pack when it comes to red-zone productivity—slotting 40th in the country with an 87.1 percent scoring rate.
But a deeper dive reveals Houston is 13th in red-zone touchdown rate, ending trips to the red zone with six points 71 percent of the time.
As a defense, Florida State boasts one of the stingiest red-zone units in the country. The Seminoles have only allowed touchdowns on 40 percent of its opponents' trips to the red zone.
Keys to Victory for Florida State
3 of 7
Limit Explosive Plays
Houston ranks sixth in the nation with 85 plays from scrimmage of at least 20 yards. But the Seminoles have only surrendered 40 such plays this season, tied for the 11th-best mark in the country.
Cougars quarterback Greg Ward Jr. flashes a big-play ability that could pose problems for Seminoles defensive coordinator Charles Kelly. Florida State has allowed touchdowns of 58 (Miami), 39 (Louisville), 60 (Georgia Tech), 59 (Syracuse) and 38 yards (Clemson) this season.
Protect Sean Maguire
While he's not Jameis Winston, Florida State redshirt junior quarterback Sean Maguire is 5-1 as the Seminoles starter.
He's started four of the last five games, and Fisher reiterated Sunday that Maguire will start against Houston, per Safid Deen of the Tallahassee Democrat.
Houston's defense ranks tied for 21st in the country with 33 sacks, while the Seminoles are middle of the road nationally with 23 sacks allowed. Florida State's pass protection has been steady since the loss to Georgia Tech, with the Seminoles posting five consecutive games in which they've allowed two sacks or fewer.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Players to Watch for Houston
4 of 7
Greg Ward Jr.
Ward has powered a Cougars offense that averages 40.6 points and 486.9 yards per game. He has completed 68 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,590 yards and 16 touchdowns, and he's rushed for another 1,041 yards and 19 scores.
Against Temple in the AAC title game Saturday, Ward provided touchdown runs of 47 and 10 yards, helping lift the Cougars to the win.
"He's a competitive dude, and he's a playmaker," Herman said to reporters (via the Houston website) after the game of Ward, who has also played receiver and returned punts in his Cougars career. "We still have some polishing to do in terms of his quarterback play. When the ball is in his hands, usually good things are going to happen. He certainly is the gas that runs the engine on offense."
Elandon Roberts
Senior inside linebacker Elandon Roberts leads the Cougars with 132 tackles, including 17 for loss and six sacks, to go along with an interception and two forced fumbles.
"He's a great leader," Cougars cornerback William Jackson III said to reporters of Roberts. "He's a great friend off the field. He's everything you would want in a senior linebacker. He'll get on you."
Roberts and Co. limited Temple to just 13 points Saturday, forcing a pair of turnovers by the Owls en route to their 12th win of the season.
"Turnovers are a big part of the game," Roberts said to reporters afterward. "When the defense can get turnovers, it changes the momentum of a good offense like Temple's. It's a really good vibe for the offense to go out on the field and capitalize on it."
Players to Watch for Florida State
5 of 7
Dalvin Cook
Cook headlines the Seminoles and has piled up 1,658 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns in 11 games. The 5'11", 202-pounder is averaging 7.9 yards per carry.
"There are a lot of great running backs in this country, and he is as good as any of them with everything he does," Fisher said to reporters after the win over Florida. "His character and what he means and how he carries himself, the effect he has on his teammates; we could do a whole press conference on him."
Houston ranks 12th in the nation in rushing defense and has only allowed an average of 116 rushing yards per game. Cook gashed the Gators for 183 rushing yards on 26 attempts (7.0 yards per carry), including fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 15 and 29 yards.
Jalen Ramsey
Seminoles junior defensive back Jalen Ramsey has broken up 10 passes and defended another 10 while tallying 43 tackles from his cornerback perch.
The preseason All-American will be making his 41st career start—25 of which have come at safety—in the Peach Bowl. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller recently pegged Ramsey as the No. 8 player in his updated 2016 NFL draft big board.
What They're Saying
6 of 7
"I'm really excited for our team. That was a tremendous team win. Heck of an effort from our defense. Our offense found a way to move the football and score points against a tremendous defense and a heck of a team that Temple has." — Herman, to reporters (via the Houston website), after Houston’s win over Temple
"We've got a plan to win, and first thing in that plan to win is play great defense. I don't know of any championship teams that have hoisted trophies without great defensive play. First and foremost on my mind when I got the job, I wanted to make sure we hired great defensive coaches that we were able to instill a great defensive culture here at the University of Houston. We have certainly ridden their backs on numerous occasions." — Herman on Saturday
"Houston coach Tom Herman says he has studied Jimbo Fisher's offenses "year in and year out."
— Safid Deen (@Safid_Deen) December 6, 2015"
"Jimbo Fisher notes FSU's indoor practice facility as an asset for the #Noles playing in the Georgia Dome to finish the season.
— Safid Deen (@Safid_Deen) December 6, 2015"
"Houston coach Tom Herman calls FSU "the cream of the crop when it comes to college football."
— Safid Deen (@Safid_Deen) December 6, 2015"
". @CoachTomHerman on what a win over @FSU_Football would mean: ‘Any time you can win last game it can give you tremendous momentum.'
— Joseph Duarte (@Joseph_Duarte) December 6, 2015"
". @FSU_Football coach Jimbo Fisher: @UHCougarFB QB Greg Ward Jr: ‘He’s one of the most explosive players in America.'
— Joseph Duarte (@Joseph_Duarte) December 6, 2015"
"Tom Herman said he was hoping Dalvin Cook wasn't as good as the numbers show.
— Jared Shanker (@JShankerESPN) December 6, 2015"
Prediction
7 of 7
Between Houston's high-powered offense, Ward and Cook, there should be no shortage of excitement in the Georgia Dome on New Year's Eve.
The Cougars showed the capability to score enough—23 points—against a stout Temple defense. But can Houston generate more production against Florida State and outpace the Seminoles, like when the Cougars kept pouring on the offense in the 52-31 win over Navy at the end of November?
While Florida State is far from the No. 2-ranked scoring offense it rode in 2013, the Seminoles still average 32 points per game. Can Maguire make enough plays to keep the Cougars off Cook?
We're giving the slight edge to Cook and the Noles.
Prediction: Florida State 38, Houston 31
All quotes were obtained firsthand and all stats courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Mike Monaco is the lead Notre Dame writer for Bleacher Report. Follow @MikeMonaco_ on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
