2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 13
We're an Army-Navy game away from the bowl season. Everyone else's regular season is wrapped up, as is championship week. What does that mean? It's officially draft season.
For months, we've been studying these college teams from NFL projection perspectives so you can lounge back on Saturdays and embrace the weekend slate as a whole for entertainment. This is the time of the year when fanbases start shifting their eyes from January hopes to April hopes, though, and someone has to be readied with enough hot takes to go around.
As we have done all season, we will provide a list of players who helped or hurt their draft stock based off of their performances last weekend. With a short list of games we'll only feature four players this week, all of whom come from Power Five conference championship games, which if you were lucky, you were able to see while maniacally flipping channels.
Stock Up: Tim Williams, EDGE, Alabama
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At the beginning of the year, I would have told you that there was an underclassman situational pass-rusher who had a shot going in the top 100, but who wasn't even a starter for his team. The issue is, I would have said it was Rutgers' Kemoko Turay, who had 7.5 sacks as a redshirt freshman in that role in 2014. In 2015, he has had even more limited playing time for Rutgers, only seeing the field enough to reach two sacks for the regular season and nine combined tackles.
No, the guy I'm thinking about in that role currently is Tim Williams of the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Crimson Tide use their defensive personnel better than anyone in the country, as they've developed situational players like NFL squads do. They aren't the program to play a guy 90 percent of the time just because he's their best defensive tackle. They have enough depth to go around.
Williams is an undersized speed rusher who mostly plays defensive end for the team. According to Alabama's official site, he's 6'4" and 230 pounds. He needs to gain at least 20 pounds on his frame to be considered a player who can see the field for more than one down at the next level, but he's shown enough potential as a pass-rusher that he's worth the investment should he declare a year early, even if he has to hit the weight room as a professional.
As of right now, Williams has 9.5 sacks on the season, only ranking behind two players in the SEC: Myles Garrett, who will be discussed as a potential top overall prospect in the 2017 draft class, and Jonathan Allen, who is an Adrian Clayborn clone and could go in the first round in April.
Over and over against the Florida Gators, especially late in the game when the Crimson Tide forced them into passing situations, Williams made a huge impact. He was in the backfield with bend and quick swipe moves. If he has a good draft cycle, he could land on Day 2.
Current draft projection: Fourth-round pick
Stock Up: Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford
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Early on in his Stanford Cardinal career, wide receiver Ty Montgomery was considered to be a first-round receiver. By the time he was selected in 2015, he was a third-round pick and viewed as a reach even then. One way "apologists" rationalized the selection was by stating that it had to be taken into account that Kevin Hogan was his quarterback, which really limited what he could do as a pass-catcher.
That was the narrative Hogan walked into the 2015 season with. Not only was he not the "next Andrew Luck," but with his Tim Tebow-esque elongated motion, many viewed him as a liability, even at the college level. After the Cardinal beat the Maryland Terrapins last bowl season, Gabriel Baumgaertner of Sports Illustrated wrote a piece about the game potentially being the then-junior's last for Stanford. Scott Sudikoff, who has worked for a variety of companies including ESPN, claimed there was even talk about Hogan becoming a graduate transfer for Maryland.
No one thought Hogan would be an NFL prospect, including myself, but 2015 has changed my mind. In the Pac-12, a conference noted for its quarterback play, he ranks second in passer rating, completion percentage and yards per attempt, not including the fact that he ranks fifth in the FBS in ESPN's QBR metric.
There's nothing he can't do on paper, and if a team can work on his passing motion and change his javelin throw style, they can turn a third-string quarterback into a starter over the course of a couple years. It's also cliche to say a Stanford guy is intelligent, but it really is amazing to see Hogan work the line of scrimmage like Peyton Manning and Jameis Winston.
Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey is a popular Heisman Trophy candidate. He's been so successful this season that Fox Sports' Joel Klatt claimed he is "the best overall player" in his lifetime. One reason for the numbers that McCaffrey is putting up? Hogan always has the Cardinal offense running the right play. It's almost predictable what the offense is doing, because Hogan is actively playing a numbers game at all times. He might not be a Day 1 or Day 2 guy, but he's going to end up on a roster.
Current draft projection: Day 3 pick
Stock Down: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
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Yes, I wrote about Connor Cook as a "Stock Up" prospect just last week. Yes, all Cook did this past weekend was orchestrate a grinding game-winning drive, including a speed option by himself in a crucial situation, to seal a 16-13 win over one of two then-undefeated Power Five teams to clinch a playoff bid. Everything sounds great, until I tell you this has nothing to do what he did on the field, at least when time was still on the clock.
Cook is going to be an interesting prospect to watch as the draft cycle moves forward. He wasn't voted a team captain, despite the fact that he was the top returning senior quarterback in college football, and elected to return for another year when he most likely would have been a top-100 selection in a poor quarterback class last season, the difference of millions of dollars.
As Joe Marino of Draft Breakdown has pointed out, many draft analysts have put their names to statements about Cook's relationship with his teammates. Ben Allbright of AM1340 in Denver, a noted quarterback evaluator, and Eric Galko, the founder of Optimum Scouting, are two of the most trusted sources in this business, and if they both echo the same rumors floating around about how Cook comes off, you'd be smart to believe them.
Why is this important this week? Well, if you didn't stick around for the trophy presentation, when Cook took the stage to receive an award from Archie Griffin, the only human on Earth to win two Heisman trophies, he came off extremely cocky, almost not giving the time of day to Griffin as he quickly went for screen time. Now, to be fair, he did apologize on the Big Ten Network afterward, but who wouldn't?
Like it or not, NFL teams care about the image of their franchise players, and coming off smug isn't going to help Cook, especially with what was already swirling around. If Panthers owner Jerry Richardson cared about quarterback Cam Newton having tattoos and piercings, then there's no doubt in my mind that this will hang over Cook when teams are asking themselves if he's "the guy."
Current draft projection: Late first-round pick
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Stock Up: Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson
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Shaq Lawson isn't some new face to the college football world. It is his first year as a starter, but if you've seen any Clemson Tigers games this season, he's flashed in front of your eyes.
Lawson's momentum keeps growing, and as this pass-rushing class starts to settle, his chances to go very high in the draft keep getting better. Think about it this way; the best four pass-rushing prospects in the 2016 class are Joey Bosa, Lawson, Carl Lawson and Noah Spence in some order.
Carl Lawson of the Auburn Tigers has only played one full season of football, as a true freshman, and is only a redshirt sophomore. The chances of him leaving early aren't high. Spence is an FCS prospect by way of the Ohio State Buckeyes who has character issues in his past. Behind Bosa, Shaq Lawson might be the second edge defender off the board by default.
In my opinion, and if you go by contract numbers, defensive linemen are the second-most important unit on the field outside of quarterbacks. If there's only two "safe" linemen who can get after the passer, and one is a lock to go in the top three, the second will be drafted early almost exclusively based on how many teams need an extra rusher.
Outside of Lawson's burst, he's not going to impress physically. He's not insanely long like Michael Johnson, nor does he have hips and flexibility like Von Miller, but he's very well-rounded. He has natural leverage, knows how to control his body, has a strong bull rush and isn't a liability in the run game. If you were able to get a look at Seattle Seahawks defensive end Frank Clark's impact in the preseason, that's essentially what I expect from Lawson in the NFL. They are very similar prospects on the field.
Current draft projection: First-round pick
Bonus: Top-Five Mock
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1. Cleveland Browns: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
I don't think the Cleveland Browns have their quarterback of the future on their roster currently. If head coach Mike Pettine is given another season, for whatever reason, he will want to go get "his guy" as job security. That's usually how it works, unless you're former Tennessee Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt and it backfires miserably. If there's a new head coach in town, I doubt he's going to be as sold on quarterback Johnny Manziel as the staff that traded up to get him in the first round was.
2. Tennessee Titans: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
Marcus Mariota is going to sack-fumble often, so the Titans have to make sure that he doesn't get hit. Tackle Laremy Tunsil is the best prospect in this class, and for any team that already has a quarterback, he should be the first overall pick, no questions asked. He's the best offensive tackle prospect since Joe Thomas, and he should be able to play either right or left tackle for Tennessee on Day 1, depending on what it thinks of current left tackle Taylor Lewan.
3. San Diego Chargers: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss
This pick has to come down to Robert Nkemdiche or Joey Bosa, but with the Chargers already pretty solid at 3-4 outside linebacker with Jeremiah Attaochu and Melvin Ingram, two young top-50 picks, I think it has to be the Ole Miss product. Nkemdiche is versatile enough on the defensive line that I think he can play three-, five- or six-technique in the NFL. He's incredibly strong, and if he's able to put it all together, he might be a J.J. Watt-level defender.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
There just aren't going to be many more opportunities for the Dallas Cowboys to take a quarterback between now and Tony Romo's retirement or next season-ending injury. Owner Jerry Jones doesn't like to lose, so he might as well bite the bullet and start developing the next bridge to a winning quarterback. I may not be a huge fan of Connor Cook, but if he's going to sit for a year or two, he's a better option than anyone else in the class or anybody who is slated to hit free agency.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
This would just be an amazing pick for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They needed pass-rushing help last season, but defensive end Dante Fowler, the third overall pick of last year's draft, went down with an ACL tear in rookie camp. If they were able to pair 21-year-old Florida products Bosa and Fowler, the latter of whom will be ready to play in 2016, on the edges of their defense, it completely changes what that squad looks like. Imagine if a team magically was able to add Khalil Mack, the Fowler comparison, and Cameron Jordan, the Bosa comparison, in the same offseason? That's worth another win or two easily.
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