Holiday Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Wisconsin vs. USC

The USC Trojans and Wisconsin Badgers are set to square off in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 30 at 10:30 p.m. ET. 

After a tough schedule and some injuries, Wisconsin's 9-3 record shows how good of a coaching job Paul Chryst was able to do in his first season. The Badgers' three losses came against teams that are now ranked in the College Football Playoff committee's Top 25, with two of them in the current Top Five. 

Things have not gone exactly as planned for Southern California, but this game is a chance to gain some momentum, as Clay Helton will head into his first full season as head coach in 2016. The Trojans sit at 8-5 overall and are coming off a tough loss to Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game. 

USC features an explosive offense with guys such as Cody Kessler and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the Badgers boast the nation's top-ranked scoring defense. This will be a great matchup of strength versus strength, and it will likely be won or lost in the trenches. 

Wisconsin running back Corey Clement has missed nine games this season, but he could be available for the bowl game. Per SB Nation, head coach Paul Chryst said that, "Corey's going to practice. If he's good to go, he'll play." He is a game-changing player, so this is something to watch. Wisconsin has struggled to consistently run the ball this season, so Clement's return could give their ground attack a boost for the Holiday Bowl. 

Tale of the Tape

The big matchup here will be the USC offense against Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers are good across the board, holding offenses to both low passing and rushing totals. The Trojans are averaging 35.0 points per game, and Wisconsin allows only 13.0 points per contest, so something will have to give in the Holiday Bowl. 

Another thing to watch is turnovers. The Trojans do not cough up the ball a lot, seen by the 11 turnovers this season. On the other hand, USC's defense has forced 23 turnovers, so Wisconsin will need to take care of the ball to win this game. 

Keys to Victory for Wisconsin

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Not Turning the Ball Over

Turnovers are going to be an important part of this game. Southern Cal is tied for ninth in the nation in turnover margin at plus-12, while Wisconsin sits tied for 52nd at plus-two. In the nine wins, quarterback Joel Stave has thrown eight touchdowns and six interceptions, but in three losses, he has just two touchdowns compared to five interceptions. 

USC has forced 14 interceptions this year, so it's going to be important that Stave protect the ball in this game.

Minimizing USC's Explosive Plays

The Badgers defense has also been successful in this aspect. It has allowed 112 scrimmage plays of 10 yards or more, which is the best in the nation. Southern Cal is explosive in its passing game, though, and has guys who can beat you deep. It is tied for 12th nationally in pass plays of 50 yards or more with eight, and a lot of that has to do with the speed it has at the skill positions.

Adoree Jackson is a speedster averaging 15.9 yards per reception, and Smith-Schuster sits at 15.9 yards per catch. This duo has the the ability to spread defenses out, so Wisconsin will need to be mindful of that. 

Keys to Victory for USC

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Win the Battle Up Front

This is a tough Wisconsin front that Southern Cal will face, and it's one that has gone largely underrated in college football this season. The Badgers allow just 97.9 rush yards per game, which is good for fourth best in the NCAA, but think again if you think that opens things up in the pass game. Wisconsin is sixth in that category and allows just 169.2 passing yards per game.

USC is facing a tough Badgers defense, so it's important that it win the battle up front and give running backs Justin Davis and Ronald Jones II some running room.  

Make Stave Beat You Through the Air 

It hasn't been the typical Wisconsin offense this season when we think about the ability to line up and run the ball down the defense's throat. The Badgers are tied for 97th in the nation with 148.1 rushing yards per game, and it's important that USC take away that aspect of the Wisconsin offense.

The Badgers want to control the clock and keep possession of the ball, but Southern Cal will benefit if it is able to put them into passing situations on third down. 

Players to Watch for Wisconsin

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Joe Schobert, LB 

Joe Schobert is a big part of what Wisconsin does on defense, and the senior linebacker will be important in this bowl game. Schobert has 76 total tackles on the season, including 18.5 tackles for loss. Kessler does not make a lot of mistakes with the ball, but he has been sacked 35 times this season. Schobert's ability to rush the passer and get to Kessler could make it tough on the Trojans to consistently move the ball.

Joel Stave, QB

Like we stated earlier, Wisconsin has not ran the ball as consistently this year, so that means Stave is a player to watch. The Trojans have forced 14 interceptions this season, and the speed of their defense could present problems for the Wisconsin offense. 

For the Badgers to win, Stave needs to protect the football. He has thrown five interceptions and only two touchdowns in Wisconsin's three losses this season, so how he plays will have a big impact on the outcome of the game.  

Players to Watch for USC

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Cody Kessler, QB 

A bowl game is where having a senior leader such as Kessler could pay off. The USC quarterback will need to help get this group refocused, because Wisconsin's defense is probably the toughest the Trojans will have faced all season.

Kessler has done an excellent job of protecting the ball this year with only six interceptions, but it will take some big plays from him to score points on a stingy Badgers defensive group.  

Su'a Cravens, LB 

Su'a Cravens is one of the leaders on this USC defense, and the Trojans will need him to make some big plays in this bowl game. The junior linebacker has 78 total tackles and 14.5 tackles for loss this year. 

Cravens will need to be active against Wisconsin's run game, which will force Stave to make plays through the air. 

What They're Saying

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USC Head Coach Clay Helton 

Helton spoke about moving on from the loss, per Jen Cosgriff of Pac-12 Network: "These guys are starting to play for each other, and that's what I'm most proud of in the whole thing. I reminded them in that locker room just to remember what this pain feels like because it's our goal to be right back here."

Wisconsin Head Coach Paul Chryst 

Chryst commented on playing one more game, per the Wisconsin State Journal, "[This group] they appreciate what they have all done for the right to play another game, and a bowl game is another opportunity." 

Chryst also commented on Clements' playing status for the bowl game, per SB Nation, "Corey's going to practice. If he's good to go, he'll play."

Predicted Outcome

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The Wisconsin defense will present some issues for the USC offense, but the Badgers will not score enough points to win this one. Southern Cal will attempt to establish the run game, but it is Kessler who will be the difference-maker. 

The inability to gash teams with the run game has been a disadvantage for Wisconsin, and Stave will not be able to make plays through the air against USC's fast secondary and linebacker group. 

Helton's recently getting the head coaching job will also work in favor of USC, because he will not allow this group to lie down after the Stanford loss. This group has a lot of potential for the future, so the Trojans will do all they can in this game to gain momentum heading into next year. 

USC 29, Wisconsin 17 

All stats used in this slideshow came from CFBStats.com.