Believability Meter on the Week's Biggest Rumours: Cavani, Carvalho, Muller
Edinson Cavani is being linked with Manchester United, William Carvalho is a target for Arsenal (again) and Bayern Munich's Thomas Muller is mooted as being on his way to the Premier League.
January 1 is approaching, big-name transfer targets abound and speculation is increasing by the day. Luckily, we have a believability meter to help us wade through the gossip.
You will find our verdict on the rumours surrounding Cavani, Carvalho and Muller over the following pages, plus an assessment of the latest talk involving Alberto Moreno, Lars Bender, Ilkay Gundogan and Xabi Alonso.
Let us know your thoughts on the biggest rumours of the week by commenting below.
Alberto Moreno Eyed by Real Madrid
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Alberto Moreno may be tempted to join Real Madrid in January despite reports he is happy at Liverpool.
This rumour comes courtesy of Radio 4G (h/t the Daily Star's Rhys Turrell), who claimed:
"The Spaniard was linked with a Bernabeu switch last week as the club seek to solve their left-back crisis.
Real are without first-choice Marcelo and have been considering a January replacement.
And despite being happy on Merseyside, Moreno’s agent Javier Moya admits his client will be listen to Madrid if they come calling.
‘If Real Madrid were to make an offer that would make him really happy,’ Moya told Radio 4G.
But Liverpool would have to take the first step.
‘If a team as important as Real Madrid were to speak with us and Liverpool were satisfied with the operation, we would talk. He's getting to know another culture and playing in one of the most important leagues. And, above all, he's in the first team.’
"
Moreno joined the Reds from Sevilla in summer 2014 and has racked up 61 appearances in all competitions since his move to Anfield.
The 23-year-old’s Liverpool contract is set to run until 2019.
Believability Meter: Low
In the final six fixtures of the 2014/15 season, Moreno did not make the Liverpool squad for two games and found himself watching from the bench for a further two.
When he did play, he was part of a Reds team on the receiving end of a 6-1 shellacking from Stoke City and a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace.
Cue summer rumours linking the Spaniard with Real Madrid, Barcelona and AS Roma, relayed by Adam Skinner in the Express, with Liverpool reportedly happy to offer Moreno's services to the Bernabeu side.
Perhaps it's true he almost departed Merseyside and maybe he really was unhappy. Who knows? One thing we do know is with Jurgen Klopp now in charge, everything is different.
Liverpool are a side re-energized by their new manager, Moreno has made 10 appearances in all competitions since Klopp rocked up in October and has played every minute in the Premier League under the German.
The Reds could go on to big things under the former Borussia Dortmund manager, and our guess is that Moreno, like many of his team-mates, will stay at Anfield to be a part of it.
Chelsea Will Battle Manchester United for Thomas Muller
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Chelsea are prepared to battle Manchester United for Bayern Munich’s Thomas Muller, according to Darren Lewis in the Mirror.
The striker attracted interest from Old Trafford during the last transfer window, when talk of a €100 million (£70 million) bid was in the offing, as claimed by Bild (h/t the Guardian).
Now, it seems Chelsea will compete with United for Muller's signature in the summer.
As Lewis reported:
"Chelsea are ready to rival Manchester United for Bayern Munich striker Thomas Muller
The champions are going to let Diego Costa escape scot-free for his petulant bib-throwing at boss Jose Mourinho during the draw with Spurs on Sunday.
But the 27-year-old could find himself replaced next summer by the Germany superstar, who has already been targeted by Old Trafford chief Louis van Gaal.
"
Elsewhere, Kicker (h/t ESPN FC) reported this week that Muller is close to signing an extension to his current deal at Allianz Arena. It seems that a verbal agreement—which would see the forward stay at the club until 2021—already exists between player and club.
Believability Meter: Low
In October, the Mail on Sunday's Rob Draper interviewed Thomas Muller, the headline to his piece reading, "The Premier League has too many foreigners and a move to Manchester United is not up for discussion!"
What has changed since then?
Well, Muller has taken his 2015/16 scoring tally to 20 goals in 22 games in all competitions, whereas Mourinho and Van Gaal's sides are both faltering in front of goal—with 37 strikes between them in the Premier League this term.
However, the World Cup winner is not one inch closer to moving to the Premier League, and we should expect nothing more than for him to extend his current deal—which runs until 2019—before long.
At Bayern since 2000, Muller is far too important a player for the club to consider letting go. And let's face it, he is just one of a multitude of names being linked with Chelsea and United.
Edinson Cavani to Manchester United
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Edinson Cavani will be allowed to depart Paris Saint-Germain for Manchester United next summer if manager Laurent Blanc can find a suitable replacement.
News the striker could be on his way to the Premier League was revealed this week by L'Equipe (h/t James Cambridge in the Express):
"Edinson Cavani could be on Manchester United's summer shopping list providing Paris Saint-Germain find a big-name replacement.
Louis van Gaal is understood to be an admirer of the Uruguay international and is keen to bring in an experienced striker to play alongside Anthony Martial. …
The 28-year-old is not expected to be handed a new deal at the Parc des Princes, with his current contract due to run until 2018.
"
The former Palermo and Napoli frontman has notched nine goals in 15 Ligue 1 games this season.
Believability Meter: Low
The Cavani-to-Old Trafford rumours are not going to go away any time soon.
Over the summer, Cavani was named in a mooted swap deal involving then-United player Angel Di Maria, per Richard Tanner of the Express.
April 2014 also brought us talk of a £60 million move, as Daniel Taylor reported in the Guardian.
We've seen this story a number of times.
Granted, United are in need of a goalscorer, and Cavani will almost certainly have entered the thoughts of executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward.
However, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic poised to exit Parc des Princes at the end of the season, PSG could face a striker shortage of their own were Cavani to leave.
It's also worth remembering that despite bagging 67 goals in 116 games in all competitions for the Parisians, Cavani has hardly been prolific in his time at the club and nowhere near his strike rate of 104 goals in 138 games for Napoli.
Maybe we're just developing an immunity to rumours linking the pair, but our believability meter refuses to inch past low on this one.
William Carvalho and Arsenal: A Move Is Finally On?
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Sporting Clube de Portugal's William Carvalho is January target for Arsenal, according to an exclusive from Jeremy Wilson in the Telegraph.
As Wilson reported:
"Arsenal are again interested in Portugal international William Carvalho as they try to solve their central midfield injury crisis but the difficulty of making a major signing in January means they are also focussed on the available loan options. ...
Carvalho is a player of previous interest to Wenger and has a buy-out clause from Sporting Lisbon that is set at £35 million.
It is believed that the 23-year-old defensive midfielder could be available for closer to £25 million although Sporting, who are currently top of the Portuguese league will be reluctant to sell in January.
"
Clubs have been circling for some time, the speculation intensifying when the Luanda, Angola-born player was named Player of the Tournament at the UEFA European Under-21 Championship last summer.
However, a stress fracture to his tibia derailed the start of Carvalho’s 2015/16 campaign, and he only returned to action for Jorge Jesus' outfit in late September.
He has made 11 outings in all competitions for Sporting this season and is under contract at Estadio Jose Alvalade until 2018.
Believability Meter: Low
The Gunners have seven first-team players out of action through injury, according to Physio Room, and their need for new defensive midfielders has been apparent for some time—as has their reported admiration for Carvalho.
The Sporting midfielder has also hinted toward an affection for Arsenal, as seen in Portuguese newspaper A Bola (h/t ESPN FC).
The interest appears to be mutual, yet our believability meter is set to low for a number of reasons.
Carvalho hasn't been back in action for that long, he is a vital player and vice-captain for a side that is chasing the Liga NOS title and he is guaranteed games under Jesus—which is key when the 2016 European Championship is approaching.
It's also extremely rare to see Sporting allowing players to leave in January. The Portuguese club prefer to do most of their transfer wrangling over the summer months—especially when it comes to players as highly rated as Carvalho.
We've already seen plenty of gossip, and the time for Carvalho to move is approaching. Sorry, Arsenal fans, but it just won't be this winter.
Xabi Alonso: A Return to Liverpool or Real Madrid
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In a rumour that was picked up across much of the British press this week, Spanish newspaper Vozpopuli (h/t talkSPORT) suggested Xabi Alonso could be on his way back to either Liverpool or Real Madrid:
"The midfielder's contract with Bayern Munich expires in the summer and he is yet to be offered a new deal.
The 34-year-old has insisted he is relaxed about the situation but that has not stopped clubs enquiring after his services.
Both Liverpool and Real Madrid, according to Spanish news outlet Vozpopuli, want to sign Alonso on a free next summer and are bracing themselves for a tug of war. ...
Alonso reportedly wants his next contract to be for three years and as of yet Bayern are unwilling to offer that length of deal.
"
In January, the 34-year-old will enter into the final six months of his contract with Bayern, whom he joined in 2014 following 236 games and a hatful of trophies with Madrid.
Before that, Alonso spent five years with Liverpool, where he made 210 appearances and won the Champions League, UEFA Super Cup and FA Cup.
Believability Meter: Low to Medium
Xabi Alonso has already clocked up 18 games in all competitions this term and—available on a free transfer next summer—expect to see a lot of interested parties linked with his name over the coming months.
It's easy to see why the Spaniard is being connected with a move back to Liverpool. A huge fan favourite, he can lay claim to being one of the club's best players of the Premier League era and would be welcomed back with open arms.
As for Madrid, we don't see it happening.
No matter the player, the superstar-laden side is not likely to sign a player of Alonso's age. It's also unlikely to imagine he wants to play under Rafael Benitez again—the former Reds boss having famously sold him to Madrid.
Perhaps Bayern will make a U-turn and offer Alonso a new deal after all. If we are being realistic, your guess is as good as ours because anything could happen.
This we do know: He may be 34, but Alonso still has plenty to offer. Whoever lands him—potentially for nothing—will be very, very lucky indeed.
Ilkay Gundogan: Borussia Dortmund to Liverpool
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Ilkay Gundogan could wave goodbye to Signal Iduna Park this January with Liverpool his next destination.
The 25-year-old racked up 117 appearances for Borussia Dortmund under Jurgen Klopp, and Fichajes (h/t George Bellshaw in Metro) has insisted he is keen on a reunion with the new Reds manager at Anfield.
As Bellshaw reported:
"The German international sparked speculation with his recent comments regarding his uncertain future.
He only has 18 months left on his contract and Liverpool will monitor his situation to determine if a move is possible.
Gundogan was linked with a move to Manchester United and Arsenal throughout the summer but the Klopp factor may prove decisive.
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Elsewhere, Gundogan recently spoke to Sport Bild (h/t Colin Harvey of the Daily Star) about his future:
"There are no new developments as of yet. I am feeling very well at BVB and I know what I have at this club.
I know that I will have to deal with the matter of my future at some point and that people expect me to make a decision.
I want to deal with this situation in a respectful way and will sit down with the Dortmund management first and make a decision. But I do not know when that moment will be yet.
I believe everybody here at Dortmund wants to be back in the Champions League next season and anything else would be a major disappointment.
But that does not mean that I will definitely leave if we don't qualify. I'm not that kind of person. I would already have left last summer had that been one of the criteria for me. Liverpool? They have a good team, a great coach.
"
In Dortmund's starting XI on 14 out of a possible 15 Bundesliga fixtures, this is the first campaign in which Gundogan has enjoyed a settled, injury-free start since 2011/12.
Believability Meter: Low
Finally playing regular football and sitting five points behind Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga table with Dortmund, there is every reason to believe Gundogan will see out the entire season with Thomas Tuchel's side.
BVB gave the Germany international a new deal in 2014, when it was unknown whether he would fully recover from a back injury. He then inked an extension this year, which should take him through to 2017.
Maybe we're living in fantasy land, but we think Gundogan will honour the rest of his contract at the Westfalenstadion and will maybe even choose to stay beyond that date.
Arsenal Will Move for Lars Bender in January
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Bayer Leverkusen's Lars Bender is one of many players linked with a move to Arsenal amid the club's annual injury crisis.
As claimed in the Telegraph, the 26-year-old is one of Arsene Wenger's top targets and could be allowed to leave BayArena in January:
"Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger received a boost after Michael Schade, the Bayer Leverkusen chairman, admitted that they may be forced to sell Lars Bender to the injury-ravaged north London club.
Bender is understood to be one of Wenger's top targets for the upcoming January transfer window, with the defensive midfielder offering perfect cover for the injured Francis Coquelin.
After previously saying the 26 year-old was not for sale, Schade now appears ready to perform a huge U-turn that will be music to the ears of the Arsenal manager.
'Bayer Leverkusen can’t be as arrogant to say that we are creating world stars and they will retire here,' said Schade.
'If we are able to create a world star or top player, then one day this player wants to play for one of the top [clubs in the world], of course.'
"
Bender, who signed for Leverkusen in 2009 from 1860 Munich, is under contract with Roger Schmidt's side until 2019.
Believability Meter: Low
When we saw the headline, "Bayer Leverkusen give Arsene Wenger green light to sign Lars Bender," our believability meter, feeling excited about a nailed-on transfer, primed itself for a high reading.
When we delved a little deeper, with a clunk and an audible sigh, it ticked back down to low.
Schade has acknowledged his star players may want to leave the club for bigger challenges, but he is hardly pushing Bender out of the nearest exit. Nor is he naming his price.
That's because he knows his team captain is not leaving in January.
Bender has not made a single Bundesliga appearance for over two months. The Leverkusen midfielder, you see, is injured.
Unless Wenger wants to deal with a case of Kim Kallstrom 2.0, he will wait until the summer—at the absolute earliest—to sign Bender.
All player and contract information comes from Transfermarkt unless otherwise indicated.
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