Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: What's the Game Plan for Tampa Bay?

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this week’s home tilt against NFC South rivals the Atlanta Falcons will have a playoff-game feel, as the result will likely represent a fork in the road for both teams in the 2015 season.

At 5-6, the Bucs sit just a game behind the 6-5 Falcons, with both still in the thick of the NFC playoff race, jockeying for a potential Wild Card spot. A loss for the Bucs would likely end their hopes of a late-season playoff push, while a loss by the Falcons would be their fifth in a row, continuing their spiral out of the playoff picture.

Tampa Bay is coming off a tough 25-12 road loss to the Indianapolis Colts, after putting together its first two-game winning streak in their last 31 regular-season games. The Falcons suffered yet another disappointing loss last week, this time a 20-10 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings.

The Bucs won this season’s first matchup with Atlanta, a 23-20 victory in the Georgia Dome last month that started their four-game losing streak.

This time around, the Bucs will have to overcome some key injuries if they want to sweep the Falcons, while Atlanta will be getting back one of its stars from injury just in time for this vital division showdown.

Let’s take a look at what the Bucs need to do on both sides of the ball to get back to .500 this week and stay in the playoff hunt.

Offensive Game Plan

Last week, Tampa Bay’s cardinal sin on offense was forgetting it had the NFL’s second-leading rusher in its backfield.

After racking up 90 yards on just 12 carries in the first half against the Colts, Doug Martin was given just two carries in the second half, despite Tampa Bay coming out of halftime with a 12-6 lead. Getting away from their offensive identity led to a scoreless second half and a disappointing loss for the Bucs, and its a hard lesson they’ll hopefully learn from this week.

Getting Martin going early and often has to be Tampa Bay’s prime objective this week against the Falcons, as his success is the driving force behind the entire offense. If Martin gets rolling, it keeps the opposing defense honest and opens things up down the field for Jameis Winston and the passing game, particularly when it comes to play-action.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Winston proved he can make plays down the field in key situations, converting multiple third-down attempts of long distances last week with veteran poise and quality throws. He’ll need to continue that trend this week, which will be helped immensely if the Bucs are able to establish the ground game early and stay committed to it.

The offensive line must bounce back from a disappointing performance last week, when it gave up five sacks to a Colts defense that had only managed 14 heading into the game. If the offensive line can get back to the normal level of play it has had throughout most of the season, and Mike Evans can improve his focus and create a few big plays down the field, the Bucs should be able to do enough offensively to come away with a huge win.

Defensive Game Plan

Tampa Bay’s mission on defense will be harder to execute than usual this week, as it looks like the Bucs will be without their two biggest impact players due to injury.

Gerald McCoy and Jacquies Smith are likely to miss Sunday’s game, which will leave Tampa Bay’s front four incredibly thin on both the interior and the outside. Smith is easily the team’s most effective pass-rusher, and McCoy’s seven sacks lead the team.

While the Bucs will be dealing with key injuries at the worst possible time, the Falcons will be getting one of their most vital weapons back from injury this week, as Devonta Freeman returns from a two-week hiatus due to a concussion.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

With Freeman and receiver Julio Jones, the Falcons have two of the NFL’s most explosive offensive playmakers at their disposal, which won’t make for an easy outing for a banged-up Tampa Bay defense.

The Bucs will need bounce-back performances from cornerbacks Sterling Moore and Jude Adjei-Barimah and step-up performances from the likes of Howard Jones and Akeem Spence up front. They’ll also need to get back to their staple of creating multiple turnovers, something they weren’t able to do even once last week against the Colts.

The Bucs have to take away Freeman and Jones as best they can, forcing quarterback Matt Ryan to beat them in other ways. If they can get enough pressure to force a few mistakes and give their offense a short field to work with, they might be able to do just enough to snatch a win on Sunday.

Top Matchups and Players to Watch

DE Howard Jones

With Smith out of the starting lineup, the Bucs will need someone to step up to help replace the edge-rushing presence he normally provides.

Jones is much lighter than the usual 4-3 defensive end at just 238 pounds, but he has the type of explosiveness it takes to bend the edge and get after the quarterback. Despite not joining the active roster until October, Jones is third on the team with 4.5 sacks in just seven appearances this season. They’ll need him to come up big this week in Smith’s stead.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

DE Vic Beasley vs. OT Donovan Smith

I’m a sucker for a good one-on-one matchup between rookies, and this game gives us just that, as Smith and Beasley are likely to see plenty of each other on passing downs.

A top-10 pick out of Clemson, Beasley is an explosive pass-rusher who has flashed at times this season, but he has just two sacks so far and hasn’t bagged one since Week 3. Smith has been a pleasant surprise since being given the starting left tackle job from day one, but he’s looking to bounce back from a rough outing last week.

Prediction

This game is an absolute must-win for both teams, and while the Bucs have the advantage of having beaten Atlanta once already, especially on the road, this week’s matchup won’t necessarily be as successful.

Injuries will play a huge role this week, as the Bucs look to be without McCoy or Smith, while the Falcons are getting Devonta Freeman back from a concussion. With a thin defensive line, it’ll be much tougher for the Bucs to contain Freeman, as well as get consistent pressure on Ryan.

David Goldman/Associated Press

Tampa Bay’s win over the Falcons back in November was due in large part to unforced errors on the part of Atlanta. If the Bucs want to come away with a sweep of their division rivals to the north, they’ll need a similar situation to play out this week, with multiple turnovers and breakdowns by the Falcons when they get in the red zone.

That said, Winston has shown the ability to overcome adversity and lead the Bucs to key wins already this season, and if the ball ends up in his hands at the end of the game with a chance to win, I’m not betting against him. If the defense can keep it close until the end, Winston should take care of the rest with another late comeback win.

Final Prediction: Bucs 27, Falcons 23

All stats courtesy of NFL.com

Luke Easterling is a Featured Columnist covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NFL draft for Bleacher Report. He is also a senior NFL draft analyst for Draft Breakdown. Follow him on Twitter @Luke Easterling.