2016 Cactus Bowl: Preview, Predictions for West Virginia vs. Arizona State
The West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5, 4-5 Big 12) meet the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12) in the 2016 Cactus Bowl on Jan. 2.
It was a tale of two seasons for the Mountaineers. WVU began the season at 3-0 before a murderous October schedule saw the Mountaineers drop four in a row. West Virginia rallied to win four in a row before dropping its season finale at Kansas State.
It was an up-and-down season for the Sun Devils, too. Arizona State started the season 4-2, then was blown out by USC before taking down then-No. 7 UCLA. ASU ended the regular season with a heartbreaking last-second loss to California.
This will be the second all-time meeting between the two schools, as Arizona State won the prior meeting by a score of 42-7 in 1979.
- When: January 2, 2016
- Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Radio: Sun Devil Radio Network, Mountaineer Sports Network and ESPN Radio
West Virginia's Keys to Victory
1 of 6
Keep the Game Out of Skyler Howard's Hands
WVU quarterback Skyler Howard is a solid passer. Unfortunately, he tries to fit balls into places that do not exist. He's a rhythm passer, and when he's on, the Mountaineers offense is hard to stop. When he isn't, WVU struggles. That's why head coach Dana Holgorsen needs his outstanding running backs—Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell—to have a big game.
Howard has completed just 55 percent of his passes in 2015. He isn't afraid to push the ball down the field. That's OK if the Mountaineers have established a running game first.
Pressure Mike Bercovici
Arizona State's senior quarterback leads ASU's high-flying offense. The Sun Devils offense is predicated on timing and features several talented receivers. Fortunately for the Mountaineers, they've faced this type of offense in the Big 12.
Teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor all feature high-flying, explosive offenses. WVU struggled defensively against each of them.
For West Virginia to beat Arizona State, the Mountaineers will need to get pressure on Bercovici—hit him early in the game, jam the receivers at the line of scrimmage and disrupt ASU's timing.
Arizona State's Keys to Victory
2 of 6
Make West Virginia One-Dimensional
If the Sun Devils defense can force a couple of turnovers and pressure Howard, it stands a good chance of forcing the Mountaineers to abandon their successful running game. If that happens, look for linebacker Antonio Longino to have a big game pressuring Howard.
ASU's defense has struggled all season; however, it is No. 19 against the run, allowing just 124 yards rushing per game. This will be the matchup to watch.
Avoid Negative Plays
Bercovici isn't careless with the football, but he's been sacked 39 times. West Virginia will send pressure from all angles, hoping to force turnovers.
If Bercovici takes care of the football, Arizona State will be in good shape on offense. If he doesn't, WVU will capitalize.
West Virginia Players to Watch
3 of 6
Quarterback Skyler Howard
Howard is an extremely streaky quarterback. During the four-game losing streak in October, Howard was picked off six times and completed less than 50 percent of his passes. Then, there are other occasions where Howard is terrific. In the victory over Texas in November, Howard completed over 80 percent of his passes.
In WVU's last two games, Howard was under 50 percent. He was also picked off in nine of WVU's 12 games.
Which Howard will show up in the Cactus Bowl?
Safety KJ Dillon
Senior KJ Dillon, a three-year starter at safety, is WVU's most exciting defensive player. You'll see him line up in the box as an extra linebacker or drop back to cover the deep middle. He's a versatile defender and a hard hitter.
Dillon finished fifth on the team in tackles, had 7.5 tackles for loss, eight passes defended and two interceptions. Expect to hear his name numerous times in the Cactus Bowl.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Arizona State Players to Watch
4 of 6
Quarterback Mike Bercovici
The senior passer won ASU's starting quarterback job in the offseason and never looked back. He runs Todd Graham's high-flying offense to perfection and can make any throw on the field. Bercovici gets sacked a lot, but his tendency to hold the ball too long is a big reason why.
The Sun Devils have three players with over 50 receptions and five receivers with 30 or more catches.
Bercovici's ability to spread the ball around is a big reason Arizona State is so tough to defend.
Linebacker Antonio Longino
Longino is a force to be reckoned with. He led the Pac-12 in sacks with 10, had 19.5 tackles for loss and also 60 tackles.
In addition to Longino, Arizona State features 13 other players who have registered a sack. The Sun Devils were tied for first in the FBS with 44 team sacks. WVU's offensive line will have its hands full.
What They're Saying
5 of 6
Arizona State
Graham is excited about playing so close to home, especially for his players, per Doug Haller of the Arizona Republic.
"This group of seniors is a special group, and to get to play in front of our home fans here in the Valley is a big deal for us," Graham said in a bowl teleconference. "I think it's going to be a heck of a matchup between two really good programs and in a very unique setting."
West Virginia
Holgorsen is aware of the late start. Will it be an issue? He didn't say, but he has a plan for it, per BlueGoldSports.com.
"Holgorsen says practicing later at night helps get the team prepared for late game starts.
— BlueGoldSports.com (@Blue_GoldSports) December 6, 2015"
Prediction
6 of 6
The rule of thumb when predicting a football game is to take the team with the better quarterback. Well, Bercovici is the better quarterback, but unfortunately for Arizona State, the Mountaineers are the better overall team.
WVU's rugged schedule, particularly through October, made the Mountaineers a tougher and more seasoned team.
Arizona State is a tough team to figure out. The Sun Devils beat UCLA but lost to Texas A&M, Utah and USC. Those games weren't close, either.
This game will be close, as both teams can move the ball up and down the field. WVU will find a way to consistently run the football, keeping Arizona State's pass rush in check. The Mountaineers will make enough plays down the field to keep ASU's defense honest.
Prediction: WVU 41, Arizona State 38
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
