NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the AP Top 25 After Week 14
Week 14 of the college football season might have been the smallest slate of the season, but it didn't fail to deliver the normal share of heart-pounding drama.
Conference championship weekend featured a few playoff bid-sealing performances from a trio of contenders, a huge win for a Group of Five front-runner and the nation's best offense trying to battle through a waking nightmare in its regular-season finale.
Of course, when Selection Sunday rolls around Sunday, the entire nation will fixate on the committee's College Football Playoff rankings.
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But since we've done these Associated Press Top 25 projections each week at this time, let's round out the entire regular season with one more batch, shall we?
Here is the predicted Top 25 from the AP heading into bowl season and, this time around, a look at how the biggest games of the weekend shaped this last poll.
| 1. Clemson | 1 | 13-0 | Won 45-37 vs. No. 8 North Carolina |
| 2. Alabama | 2 | 12-1 | Won 29-15 vs. No. 18 Florida |
| 3. Michigan State | 5 | 12-1 | Won 16-13 vs. No. 4 Iowa |
| 4. Oklahoma | 3 | 11-1 | |
| 5. Iowa | 4 | 12-1 | Lost 16-13 vs. No. 5 Michigan State |
| 6. Stanford | 7 | 11-2 | Won 41-22 vs. No. 24 USC |
| 7. Ohio State | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8. Notre Dame | 9 | 10-2 | |
| 9. Florida State | 10 | 10-2 | |
| 10. North Carolina | 8 | 11-2 | Lost 45-37 vs. No. 1 Clemson |
| 11. TCU | 11 | 10-2 | |
| 12. Northwestern | 13 | 10-2 | |
| 13. Oklahoma State | 14 | 10-2 | |
| 14. Houston | 17 | 12-1 | Won 24-13 vs. No. 20 Temple |
| 15. Oregon | 15 | 9-3 | |
| 16. Ole Miss | 16 | 9-3 | |
| 17. Michigan | 19 | 9-3 | |
| 18. Utah | 21 | 9-3 | |
| 19. Baylor | 12 | 9-3 | Lost 23-17 vs. Texas |
| 20. Navy | 22 | 9-2 | |
| 21. LSU | 23 | 9-3 | |
| 22. Florida | 18 | 10-3 | Lost 29-15 vs. No. 2 Alabama |
| 23. Wisconsin | 25 | 9-3 | |
| 24. Western Kentucky | NR | 11-2 | Won 45-28 vs. Southern Miss |
| 25. Temple | 20 | 10-3 | Lost 24-13 at No. 14 Houston |
Impact games
Michigan State 16, Iowa 13
The Big Ten Championship Game was as B1G as they come, with Michigan State pulling out a thrilling three-point win over previously undefeated Iowa in Indianapolis. The game was capped by a 22-play drive that ended with a tremendous touchdown run from true freshman L.J. Scott.
"I was just trying to make a big play for my brothers," Scott said, per Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod. "We knew what we had at stake."
What was at stake was a spot in the College Football Playoff, as Michigan State's last-second drive gave it enough to edge Iowa in a national quarterfinal.
The big discussion ahead of Sunday's playoff reveal will be how the committee sorts one-loss conference champions Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma. Michigan State, with its victories over Michigan, Ohio State and now Iowa away from the comforts of its home stadium, might have enough to jump Oklahoma, which doesn't have as strong of a resume.
For Iowa, the heartbreaking loss will put it out of the playoff, but it's hard to imagine the pollsters knocking the Hawkeyes too much for their tremendous effort against the experienced Spartans on Saturday night.
Here, Michigan State gets a big bump to No. 3 following its monumental win over Iowa, which slides down one spot behind the presumed playoff four. The Hawkeyes stay ahead of Ohio State—they have a common loss, but the Buckeyes' came as favorites inside their home stadium, while Iowa was an underdog this week.
Clemson 45, North Carolina 37
The Tar Heels will feel shafted after a controversial offsides call on an onside kick prevented them from potentially forcing an overtime situation with the No. 1 team in the country Saturday night.
Instead, Clemson finished as the lone undefeated team at the FBS level with a 45-37 victory in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Tigers forced UNC to its worst performances of the season on both sides of the ball, snapping an 11-game winning streak for the upset-minded Heels.
"The Tigers have been the most complete team in the country all season long, and their undefeated record should be no surprise," David Ubben of Sports on Earth wrote. "Clemson knocked off Notre Dame, Florida State and UNC to close the season with three Top 15 wins."
While some will argue for Alabama to be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, Clemson's record should keep it at No. 1 in both the poll and the final four this weekend.
For North Carolina, an eight-point loss in the ACC title game will be a bitter pill to swallow, but the Tar Heels showed they deserved some more respect by hanging in there with the Tigers. I project them to fall just a couple of spots in the poll—the same number of spots Georgia Tech did when it lost by two to Florida State in this same game last year.
Alabama 29, Florida 15
It took a while for Alabama to get rolling against Florida, but the Tide completely took over the SEC Championship Game in the second and third quarters:
While Florida made things closer late with a surprising touchdown bomb, Alabama had the game well in hand thanks to stifling defense and another incredible effort from Heisman front-runner Derrick Henry at running back.
The Tide will push for a No. 1 spot after claiming back-to-back SEC championships, but the one loss to Ole Miss should ultimately hold them back from leapfrogging Clemson as we head into bowl season.
For Florida, the late-season slide down the polls will continue this weekend. Although the three-loss Gators haven't looked like a ranked team in recent weeks, they'll still find a way to hang in the AP Top 25. After all, four-loss USC was already in the Top 25 heading into Week 14.
Stanford 41, USC 22
Stanford needed to knock off USC on Saturday and see some chaos in order to make the College Football Playoff. The Cardinal held up their end of the deal, but the nation's top two teams held steady in Week 14.
While it won't be much of a consolation, I wouldn't be shocked to see Stanford jump one-loss Ohio State this weekend in the AP poll thanks to its 19-point win over USC.
Pollsters will undoubtedly be impressed by Christian McCaffrey's record-breaking night, and the Cardinal's ranked wins will stack up well compared to Ohio State's.
USC, on the other hand, will drop out of the Top 25 for good with its fifth loss of the season. I was somewhat surprised the Trojans got a No. 24 spot heading into this week, and now they'll make room for a victorious 11-2 Western Kentucky team that is ready to climb into the poll.
Houston 24, Temple 13
Texas 23, Baylor 17
Down in Texas, Houston claimed the first American Conference Championship Game by beating a strong Temple team by 11 inside its home stadium.
With the newly re-signed Tom Herman coaching the Cougars to their 12th win of the year, they have laid claim to the New Year's Six spot for the Group of Five conferences. In the AP poll, I have one-loss Houston jumping over the wad of three-loss teams and settling right behind Oklahoma State at No. 14.
Elsewhere in the state during the noon slate, Baylor lost third-string quarterback Chris Johnson to injury and had to place wide receiver Lynx Hawthorne behind center. The Bears rallied to make it a close game with in-state foe Texas, but the offense was too out-of-sync to pull off the late Hail Mary stunner.
The drop for Baylor will be hard to read, especially considering it was completely out of quarterbacks. Still, a loss to a Texas team that will finish with a losing record will cost the Bears several spots in the poll. Here, they're at No. 19, behind fellow 9-3 schools Michigan and Utah.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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