10 Teams That Stand to Lose the Most Underclassmen to the 2016 NFL Draft
The 2015 college football regular season is nearing its end, but another season is just getting started. Draft season, that is. While fortunate teams concentrate on conference championship games, the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl bids, other programs are thinking about how the NFL draft will affect their 2016 plans.
And soon enough, the draft will be a factor for those elite teams as well. It makes sense that college football’s best, most talented teams are most vulnerable to the siren song of the professional ranks, but they aren’t alone. Sometimes, a convergence of timing and talent can rob a program of its best players.
Here’s a look at which teams could be hit hardest by NFL draft early entries this spring. It is by no means a scientific list or a 100 percent-lock list, but merely an idea of which players could consider an early departure. All stats are taken from the programs’ official sites.
Alabama
1 of 10
Under head coach Nick Saban’s watch, Alabama has practically been a farm team for the NFL. The Crimson Tide recruit exceedingly well, capitalize on their talent with important wins, SEC titles and national titles and send the talent on to the pro ranks. This year is no different. Alabama is 11-1 and ranked No. 2 nationally, in prime position for a College Football Playoff run entering Saturday’s SEC title game against Florida.
Junior tailback Derrick Henry finally got his chance as the Crimson Tide’s featured back and was just the latest to thrive in that role. Henry, a powerful, bruising, quick back, turned in a Heisman Trophy-worthy effort this season. He has 1,797 yards and 22 touchdowns, including a 271-yard effort against Auburn.
"When you see a guy run ― how many times, 46 times ― and he could still play," quarterback Jake Coker told AL.com's Michael Casagrande. "Not slow down, not hurt at all. It's like playing with the biggest guy on the playground, like 'What are you going to do to stop this guy?' It's just about impossible. The guy is crazy."
Henry averages 149.8 rushing yards per game and with at least two games left, he’s a lock to reach 2,000 yards. He’s an equally big lock to leave Tuscaloosa early.
Alabama has one of the nation’s most dominant defensive lines, and it’s keyed by juniors Jonathan Allen and A’Shawn Robinson. Allen has 31 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks. Meanwhile, Robinson, a tremendously athletic defensive tackle, has 39 tackles, seven tackles for loss and three sacks. Defensive back Eddie Jackson has had an excellent season with 39 tackles and five interceptions.
And tight end O.J. Howard has been an integral part of Alabama’s passing game with 30 receptions for 335 yards. It won’t be a surprise when multiple Crimson Tide players declare come January.
Arkansas
2 of 10
Following a slow start to his Arkansas tenure, head coach Bret Bielema has made the Razorbacks respectable again. A strong season-ending surge pushed Arkansas to a 7-6 record in 2014, and after an ugly 2-4 start to 2015, the Hogs are 7-5 and bowl-eligible again.
Arkansas’ formerly run-first offense has gained some balance with senior quarterback Brandon Allen’s emergence, especially with a foot injury that ended senior tailback Jonathan Williams’ season before it began.
Junior Alex Collins has picked up the pace in Williams’ absence as the clear lead tailback. He has 1,392 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, averaging 116 yards per game. Junior tackle Denver Kirkland has done an excellent job paving the way for the offense and could be an early-to-mid-round choice.
And junior tight end Hunter Henry has been one of Allen’s best targets. He has 46 receptions for 647 yards and three touchdowns and could be intriguing to the right NFL team.
Baylor
3 of 10
Baylor has emerged as one of college football’s best programs, so it might be surprising to know that the Bears didn’t have a player drafted in the first three rounds in each of the past two seasons. At 9-2, head coach Art Briles’ team will fall short of the College Football Playoff again, but it’ll be well-represented in the NFL draft.
Junior receiver Corey Coleman has emerged as college football’s top receiver and deep threat. He has 67 receptions for 1,314 yards and an eye-popping 20 touchdowns. What more does he have to prove at the collegiate level? Per NFL Media's Reid Getlin, Coleman is "strongly considering" entering the NFL draft.
Baylor isn’t known for its defense, but junior defensive tackle Andrew Billings has 33 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Junior tailback Shock Linwood has been a force in the backfield, with 1,331 yards and 10 touchdowns this season.
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Clemson
4 of 10
Clemson has enjoyed a breakthrough season under head coach Dabo Swinney’s watch. The Tigers finished the regular season 12-0 for the first time in program history, and they’re ranked No. 1 in the College Football Playoff Top 25 entering Saturday’s ACC title game against North Carolina. With a win, they’re a lock for one of the four CFP spots.
They’re a talented group and one that could be raided by the NFL draft come January. Redshirt sophomore cornerback Mackensie Alexander does not have an interception this season, but the draft-eligible corner has emerged as one of the nation’s top cover corners and could be a first-round draft pick.
Junior Shaq Lawson (who spent a year in prep school before enrolling at Clemson) is four years out of high school. He has been highly impressive stepping into NFL first-round pick Vic Beasley’s shoes at defensive end with 20.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks and could also be a premium pick.
Athletic safety Jayron Kearse has also been a force in the secondary, with 47 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, six pass breakups and a fumble recovery. On the offensive side of the ball, junior tight end Jordan Leggett is a finalist for the John Mackey Award, given to the nation’s top tight end, with 31 receptions for 418 yards and six touchdowns.
In addition, redshirt sophomore Wayne Gallman has enjoyed a standout season with 1,145 rushing yards and nine touchdowns but would enhance his value with another season in college football.
Georgia
5 of 10
When Georgia decided to part ways with head coach Mark Richt following another nine-win season, it came as a bit of a surprise. But news that came out of Athens later Sunday night was far less surprising. Junior outside linebacker Leonard Floyd informed reporters that he would be leaving for the NFL.
"I'm gone, too, by the way," Floyd yelled to reporters covering Richt's firing, per Seth Emerson of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Floyd is a freaky athletic presence who had 68 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks as a junior.
He will be an excellent fit in a 3-4 defensive scheme and has great pass-rushing skills. Meanwhile, tailback Keith Marshall had previously said that he wouldn’t take advantage of his senior season. Marshall, who struggled with injuries, entered alongside Todd Gurley as part of a talented backfield duo. He had 288 rushing yards and three touchdowns this season.
LSU
6 of 10
Last year, LSU had only four players selected in the NFL draft, the program’s lowest number in 10 seasons. That’s largely due to the fact that head coach Les Miles lost a combined 18 underclassmen in the past two seasons. Even though the Tigers’ most-hyped NFL draft prospect, tailback Leonard Fournette, won’t be eligible until next season, expect Miles’ group to have a major presence next spring.
Despite middling quarterback play, junior receiver Travin Dural is an excellent talent, with great speed and leaping ability. He had 28 receptions for 533 yards and three touchdowns this fall. LSU’s offensive line also did an excellent job paving the way for Fournette. Junior tackle Jerald Hawkins was strong after moving to the left side this fall, and he’s a redshirt junior, which means his NFL clock could be ticking. Guard Ethan Pocic was also solid, and he has great versatility with the ability to fit in as a guard or tackle.
On the other side of the ball, junior linebacker Kendall Beckwith had 76 tackles and six tackles for loss. Junior corner Tre’Davious White emerged as one of the nation’s top cover men, with 38 tackles and six passes defended. And junior defensive tackle Christian LaCouture had 35 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and a sack. It could be a very interesting January in Baton Rouge.
Ohio State
7 of 10
Following 2014’s national title campaign, Ohio State had a very quiet 2015 NFL draft. Despite this season failing to meet high expectations (another national title) with an 11-1 record and likely no College Football Playoff appearance, the Buckeyes will make significant noise in the NFL draft waters next spring.
Junior tailback Ezekiel Elliott has already stated that he won’t be back in Columbus next season. He has 1,672 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, surpassing 100 yards in all but one game as one of college football’s best, most productive backs. Junior defensive end Joey Bosa is one of the game’s best pass-rushing forces. He has 47 tackles, 16 tackles for loss and five sacks. His brother, Nick, is an Ohio State commitment, and Bosa recently told Eleven Warriors' Tim Shoemaker (h/t NFL.com) that Nick is the only reason he'd return for another season.
In addition, junior quarterback Cardale Jones, who won and then lost the Buckeyes' starting job, tweeted following a loss to Michigan State that it was his final home game.
Junior wide receiver Michael Thomas has been the Buckeyes’ best receiver. He has 49 receptions for 709 yards and eight touchdowns. Junior linebacker Darron Lee has also been excellent, piling up 59 tackles, nine tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
Ohio State’s secondary could also be hit hard. Junior safety Vonn Bell has 66 tackles and two interceptions, while fellow junior Tyvis Powell has 63 tackles and two interceptions. Cornerback Eli Apple is also draft-eligible. Same goes for No. 2 receiver Jalin Marshall (31 receptions, 448 yards, five touchdowns) and guard Pat Elflein. It could be a busy winter for pro personnel in Columbus.
Ole Miss
8 of 10
Three years ago, head coach Hugh Freeze put together the best recruiting class in Ole Miss history. However, its talented core could be wrapping up its time in Oxford without an SEC title and possibly without a 10-win season. The most talented members of the class of 2013 have lived up to their potential on the field, but all are excellent NFL draft targets.
Junior defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche has just 29 tackles and seven tackles for loss (as well as three sacks) on the season while facing constant double-teams. But his numbers don’t reflect the dominance and physical skills that Nkemdiche can flash on a football field. He’ll be a valuable commodity for teams seeking an impact defensive lineman.
Junior wide receiver Laquon Treadwell has recovered extremely well from a broken ankle that truncated his sophomore season, making 76 receptions for 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns.
And left tackle Laremy Tunsil served a multi-game NCAA suspension after allegedly accepting improper benefits from an agent but has still shown the smooth skills that make him one of the best blindside protectors in the nation. Given his NCAA issues, it’d be a surprise if he didn’t take the opportunity to make some money free and clear. Freeze has to wonder where the time went.
Penn State
9 of 10
In head coach James Franklin’s second season, Penn State showed progress, even though the Nittany Lions’ 7-5 record isn’t appreciably better than 2014’s final 7-6 mark. That could be reflected in NFL draft departures.
One of the most interesting to watch will be junior quarterback Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg’s stats haven’t always matched his NFL-ready frame and arm, thanks to a poor offensive line that has made him work for every throw he’s made. This season, he has 2,386 yards with 16 touchdowns against five interceptions.
Penn State’s defense has been solid, ranking No. 30 nationally in scoring defense while allowing 21.7 points per game. The Lions defensive line has been keyed by juniors Austin Johnson and Anthony Zettel. Johnson had a very impressive junior season, piling up 70 tackles with 13 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Zettel is also quite solid, with 43 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and three sacks. If both depart, it’d be a big blow to Franklin’s defense.
UCLA
10 of 10
Head coach Jim Mora Jr. has brought UCLA back into college football’s bright lights. The Bruins took a slight step back this season with an 8-4 record, but they still have plenty of talent, which hasn’t escaped the NFL’s attention.
Two-way star Myles Jack played only three games this season before suffering a season-ending knee injury but quickly declared for the NFL draft. He excelled as a tailback and linebacker (earning Pac-12 Freshman of the Year honors on both sides of the ball in 2013) but will fit in as a talented linebacker at the next level.
The Bruins were able to move Jack to defense full time because of junior tailback Paul Perkins. Perkins is one of the more underrated players in the college game. He has 1,275 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season, as well as 27 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown. He has certainly earned a long look from pro scouts.
Junior defensive tackle Kenny Clark has also made a name for himself this season. He has been a disruptive force in the trenches, with 64 tackles, nine tackles for loss and five sacks.
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