3 Perfect Buyer-and-Seller Partners on the MLB Offseason Trade Market
We've already seen a handful of significant MLB trades this offseason, and there's plenty more action on tap with the winter meetings right around the corner.
Fewer teams are willing to fully commit to the idea of rebuilding or selling off key pieces these days because the presence of the second wild card has opened the door for more contenders.
It's still likely, however, that a number of blockbuster deals will get made between now and Opening Day.
With that in mind, let's take a look at three potential buyer-and-seller partners that appear to be perfect matches.
Of course, there are plenty of teams with the right assets to be factors in the trade market. But for the purposes of this article, we were looking for three pairs of teams that complement each other's needs and should be interested in making deals.
Buyer: Cleveland Indians. Seller: Miami Marlins
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After a strong second half in 2014 and with a terrific pitching staff at their disposal, the Cleveland Indians were expected to do big things this past season.
While that staff was as good as advertised, finishing second in the American League with a 3.67 ERA, the team finished a disappointing 81-80 largely due to an underperforming offense.
The Indians averaged 4.16 runs per game, 11th in the AL, and finished 13th with 141 home runs.
Not one player topped the 20-homer mark, as Carlos Santana led Cleveland with 19 home runs and 85 RBI.
That makes bolstering the offense a clear need this winter, but that's tricky for the Indians, who don't have a ton of payroll flexibility and generally tend to steer clear of big contracts.
A trade for a cost-effective, controllable bat could be an attractive alternative.
Enter the Miami Marlins and center fielder Marcell Ozuna.
Ozuna looked like a long-term piece of the puzzle for the Marlins when he hit .269/.317/.455 with 23 home runs and 85 RBI in his age-23 season in 2014.
A lot has changed in the past year, though.
With Ozuna boasting a .249/.301/.337 slash line in early July, the Marlins opted to demote him to Triple-A in an effort to kick-start his season.
He did not take the demotion well, saying his time in the minors was "like a jail," according to Adam Zuvanich of the Miami Herald. Ozuna's name popped up in rumors at the trade deadline and on into August, and his agent, Scott Boras, accused the Marlins of keeping him in the minors to delay his arbitration eligibility.
Miami is looking for a starting pitcher to round out its staff, and while Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar is too high a price for Cleveland to pay, the Indians could deal right-hander Trevor Bauer.
Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors detailed a potential Ozuna-for-Bauer swap in early October, and it still looks like a win-win.
Buyer: Los Angeles Angels. Seller: Colorado Rockies
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The Los Angeles Angels are in serious need of a power bat to help provide support to Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in the middle of their lineup.
Ideally, it would be a left-handed hitter, as the team hit an abysmal .236/.289/.356 with just 42 home runs from the left side of the plate this past season. The bulk of that damage came from right fielder Kole Calhoun.
With holes to fill at second base, third base and in left field, there is no shortage of options, but one player who could be a perfect fit is Colorado Rockies slugger Carlos Gonzalez.
After injuries limited him to 110 games in 2013 and 70 games in 2014, CarGo finally stayed healthy and played a career-high 153 games this past season.
The result was a .271/.325/.540 line that included 25 doubles, 40 home runs and 97 RBI on his way to a 3.1 WAR. He was particularly great in the second half, when he posted a .975 OPS with 27 home runs and 62 RBI over 260 at-bats.
That rebound performance makes the two years and $37 million left on his contract look more than reasonable, and it would certainly be a smaller investment than any similar free-agent options.
So what would it cost to pry the 30-year-old slugger away from Colorado?
Starting pitching remains the glaring need for the Rockies, and it just so happens that the Angels have an abundance of starters.
Garrett Richards, Hector Santiago, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Matt Shoemaker, Andrew Heaney, Nick Tropeano and Tyler Skaggs (once he returns from Tommy John surgery) all figure to be in the mix for rotation spots in 2016.
Santiago appears to be the most likely trade candidate of the group.
He's coming off a career year and is projected to earn $5.1 million in arbitration. With two years of team control left and a somewhat thin market for left-handed starters, his trade value may never be higher.
A straight swap probably wouldn't work, but a package built around Santiago with a few prospect pieces or perhaps someone like Tropeano added to the mix would help Colorado bolster its pitching.
If Los Angeles can't work out a package for Gonzalez, Corey Dickerson could also make sense as an Angels target, and he'd come at a significantly lower price both in terms of salary and talent.
Buyer: Chicago Cubs. Seller: Atlanta Braves
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Addressing the loss of center fielder Dexter Fowler will be important for the Chicago Cubs, but their No. 1 focus of the winter is still on improving their starting rotation.
This year's free-agent market is loaded with pitching talent, but let's focus on arms the Cubs could target on the trade market.
The Cleveland Indians (Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar) and San Diego Padres (Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner) have attractive pitchers who are said to be available, but the best fit as a trade partner might be the Atlanta Braves.
As the rebuild in Atlanta continues, right-handers Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller could be the next players on the move.
Two weeks ago, after the Braves traded shortstop Andrelton Simmons, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported a source noted the team was "shopping everyone owed money."
Teheran fits the bill, as he's set to earn a reasonable $28.6 million over the next four years with a $12 million option and $1 million buyout in 2020.
The 24-year-old was one of the best pitchers in the NL in 2014, going 14-13 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while earning a spot on the All-Star team.
His ERA spiked to 4.04 this past season, however, and his command took a step back with his walk rate climbing from 2.1 per nine innings to 3.3.
Atlanta likely won't sell low on Teheran, but if the Cubs were willing to offer talent equivalent to his 2014 performance, he'd fetch a solid return.
As for Miller, the 25-year-old is projected to earn $4.9 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and he'll only get more expensive moving forward.
He went 6-17 last season, but that came with a 3.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 171 strikeouts in 205.1 innings of work. With three years of team control left and ace-caliber stuff, Miller's value is high as well.
So what might Chicago be willing to give up in order to acquire one of those young starters?
Back on Nov. 15, Rosenthal wrote the following: "The Cubs do not intend to move third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Addison Russell or left fielder Kyle Schwarber, but will at least explore the trade interest they are getting in right fielder Jorge Soler and infielder Javier Baez, sources say."
A straight swap of Soler or Baez for Teheran or Miller might be enough for the Braves to pull the trigger, as both players have tremendous offensive upside and would come at a low cost.
The Cubs would have to shift Bryant to right field if they traded Soler, while moving Baez would help the team capitalize on its abundance of middle infield talent.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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