Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

San Francisco owns the recent divisional rivalry with Arizona, winning 10 of the last 13 meetings, but the worm may be turning as the Cardinals have taken two of the last three meetings outright, and won all three against the spread. First place meets last place in the NFC West when Arizona takes on the 49ers at Levi's Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Cardinals opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.9-18.4 Cardinals

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals ride a four-game winning streak into this week's matchup after holding off Cincinnati last week 34-31. Arizona trailed the Bengals 14-7 at the half, rallied to take a 28-14 lead, allowed Cincy to tie the score at 31-31 late but kicked a field goal with two seconds left to seal the victory and the push as a three-point favorite.

On the night, the Cardinals racked up 383 yards of offense as quarterback Carson Palmer threw for 317 yards and four scores. Arizona has now outgained each of its last five opponents, four of those by 100 yards or more.

In the most recent meeting between these two teams, the Cardinals bombed San Francisco 47-7 back in September, outgaining the 49ers by almost 300 yards and easily covering as seven-point favorites.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The Niners are now 1-1 both straight up and against the spread since benching Colin Kaepernick after losing to Seattle last week 29-13. San Francisco fell down 20-0, pulled to within 10 points through three quarters but could get no closer, missing out on the cash as a two-touchdown dog when it allowed a Seahawks score with 12 minutes left and couldn't reply.

Niners quarterback Blaine Gabbert hit on 22 of 34 throws for 264 yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions, but the San Francisco defense just couldn't get the Seattle offense off the field.

The 49ers won their first game with Gabbert behind center three weeks ago in a 17-16 upset of Atlanta. And San Francisco, while struggling mightily this season, is actually 3-2 both SU and ATS at home.

Smart pick

This game looks like an obvious mismatch on paper, but the Cardinals are coming off a big effort in a big national TV game last week, and 10 points is a lot to cover for a divisional road favorite. Also, the 49ers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home dogs, and double-digit dogs are 7-5 ATS this NFL season. So while Arizona might well win this game outright, the smart betting choice is San Francisco.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games in this matchup.

The 49ers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.

The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.