Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers (7-3) will try to beat the Chicago Bears (4-6) for the 11th time in 12 meetings when they meet at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving night.

The Packers are coming off a 30-13 road win over the Minnesota Vikings and have owned the Bears lately, going 10-1 straight up in the past 11 meetings and 9-1 against the spread in the last 10. Chicago has also lost its last six games against NFC North opponents.

Point spread: The Packers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.3-21.6 Bears

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago’s two losses over the last six games have been decided by a combined five points, as the team has been competitive since getting quarterback Jay Cutler back from a hamstring injury. The other games were nice wins that have shown the positive influence of offensive coordinator Adam Gase on Cutler this season.

The Bears are also hoping to get running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back for this game, their biggest against any opponent the rest of the season. Even though their playoff chances are slim, a win at Green Bay would give them a huge confidence boost, especially given their lack of success versus divisional foes lately.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers ended their three-game losing streak in dominant fashion, showing they are clearly the team to beat again in the NFC North. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers showed fans and backers they have nothing to worry about despite the skid with a solid offensive performance that saw the return of running back Eddie Lacy.

Lacy rushed 22 times for a season-high 100 yards against the Vikings after totaling 72 on the ground in the previous four games combined. His ability to move the chains and help control the clock takes pressure off Rodgers and allows the signal-caller to make key plays when needed rather than all the time. The team’s defense also played well at Minnesota and has wreaked havoc on Cutler in the past, getting in his head.

Smart pick

The final score of the first meeting (31-23), which was won by the Packers in the season opener at Chicago, is not indicative of how lopsided it was in the fourth quarter. Green Bay was up 31-16 until the Bears scored with 34 seconds remaining, seemingly toying with them earlier before making its move.

With the Pack back on track, look for them to make a statement on national television with a double-digit victory that covers the spread.

Betting trends

The Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against the Packers.

The Packers are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games after an ATS win.

The Bears are 0-6 SU in their last six games against their division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.