Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings: What's the Game Plan for Green Bay?
The Green Bay Packers will try to end their three-game skid and take back first place in the NFC North when they travel to Minneapolis Sunday to take on the Minnesota Vikings in a Week 11 showdown.
The Vikings (7-2) will put their five-game winning streak on the line in hopes of extending their current one-game lead in the division.
Meanwhile, the Packers (6-3) enter the game having looked like a completely different team than the one that began the 2015 season unbeaten through six games.
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Sunday's contest will be the 110th meeting between the division rivals—a series Green Bay has dominated lately. The Packers own a 58-49-2 head-to-head advantage, including wins in four of the last five games with Minnesota.
A victory this weekend for either squad would put it in the driver's seat atop the division heading forward.
Let's now look more closely at the game plans Green Bay could utilize on both sides of the ball in its Week 11 road matchup with Minnesota.
Offensive Game Plan
Although he's struggled over the last few games, Aaron Rodgers will be the key to victory for Green Bay this week.
Not only that, but Rodgers may even eclipse his career-high 61 pass attempts of last week as the Packers use their short passing attack to move the ball.
You may have noticed Rodgers and Co. using this offensive tactic more often than not lately—shotgun formation with five receivers out wide. Obviously, this formation makes sense with the Packers trailing late in games and needing fast scoring drives.
Still, there may be another—more discreet—reason why Green Bay is forced to go this route.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, Rodgers is being blitzed at what would be the highest rate of his career if it holds up through the end of the season. Opposing defenses have blitzed the Packers quarterback on 32.5 percent of pass dropbacks in 2015—the 12th-highest rate in the NFL.
For comparison's sake, Rodgers was blitzed on just 25.5 percent of dropbacks last season—a rate that ranked 28th in the league. Since he became Green Bay's starter in 2008, Rodgers hasn't seen blitzes on more than 32 percent of dropbacks, and the Packers have never ranked higher than 22nd in blitz rate against them.
| Category | 1st 4 Games | Last 5 Games |
| Blitz Pct. | 20 | 41 |
| Comp. Pct. | 76.9 | 52.1 |
| Sacks | 1 | 12 |
The above table shows that opposing defenses have started to blitz the Packers more in the last five games. As the percentage of dropbacks against the blitz have increased, Rodgers' completion percentage and sack total are universally affected.
Whether this trend continues on throughout the season or not, it's clear opposing blitzes have been bothering Green Bay on offense lately.
So what do all these numbers boil down to? Opposing defenses are blitzing Rodgers in the pocket more often because they know either the offensive line is struggling to block five or more defenders—as this is what defines a blitz—or Green Bay's run game is so bad that they know Rodgers is more likely to go to the air on most downs.
In this case, both scenarios are true.
Thus, the Packers must use their short passing game to counter these blitzes. Doing so would not only pit receivers one-on-one against Minnesota's secondary, but it would also allow Rodgers to get rid of the ball faster and avoid the pressure he knows is coming.
Unfortunately, it would make sense for the Packers to use a running game to even out their attack and make defenses more honest with their blitzes. But considering the conundrum that exists at the running back position in Green Bay, this option is virtually out the window.
Defensive Game Plan
The re-emergence of a dominant Adrian Peterson at the center of the Vikings offense has single-handedly surged the franchise past Green Bay in the NFC North.
Minnesota's top-ranked rushing attack is headed by the 30-year-old Peterson, who's bounced back in a big way after missing most of last year with domestic violence issues.
Peterson leads the NFL in rushing yards (961) and yards per game (106.8) through the first 10 weeks of the season, as no one in the league can match him in production. Arizona's Chris Johnson is second in rushing but trails by more than 200 yards, while the league's second-best per-game average of 101.3 has come on 65 less carries by St. Louis' Todd Gurley.
The Vikings unapologetically feed their workhorse of a running back to move the ball on offense. You can't blame them, either, when you look at Peterson's production in 2015. He has racked up at least 100 rushing yards in five of his nine games this season, including a season-high 203 last week.
The plan for Green Bay's defense is simple: prevent Adrian Peterson from having a big day on the ground.
Obviously, it's easier said than done—especially considering some of the best statistical games in the nine-year veteran's career have come against Green Bay.
| Game | Rushes | Yards | Avg. | TD |
| Nov. 24, 2013 | 32 | 146 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Oct. 27, 2013 | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Dec. 30, 2012 | 34 | 199 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Dec. 2, 2012 | 21 | 210 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Nov. 14, 2011 | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Oct. 23, 2011 | 24 | 175 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Nov. 21, 2010 | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Oct. 24, 2010 | 28 | 131 | 4.7 | 1 |
In 14 career games against his division rivals, Peterson has rushed for over 100 yards eight times and averages 117.7 yards per game. Green Bay defenders know what's coming, and they'll still struggle to limit one of the most explosive offensive weapons in the league.
Although the Packers run defense ranks 24th in the league, there's a few tactics defensive coordinator Dom Capers could dial up on Sunday to limit the damage Peterson can do.
Clay Matthews and the linebacking corps could provide some added pressure inside with some timely run blitzes. Since the Vikings don't normally hide the fact they're going to run the ball down the opposition's throat, Capers would be smart to send multiple blitzers up the middle to fill rushing lanes. With Peterson often lined up behind a fullback in two tight-end sets, the Packers should play the run first and make second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater beat them in the passing game.
What Green Bay must avoid is a late-game breakdown with the game close. Peterson is averaging 8.1 yards per rush in the fourth quarter this season, including 3.9 after contact. He's making a living off exhausted and undisciplined defenders when it matters most.
Then again, stopping Adrian Peterson in the first quarter is hard enough.
Players and Matchups to Watch
LB Datone Jones
In last week's loss to Detroit, Capers unveiled a new defensive look that featured Datone Jones at outside linebacker.
Normally an inside backer on Green Bay's defense, Jones was seen going through drills in practice this week with his new position group, according to ESPN's Rob Demovsky, and he could see some more time there against Minnesota.
"He’s definitely athletic enough to do it," defensive line coach Mike Trgovac said, via Demovsky. "When we play that deal, we’re basically a 4-3 team—or a four-front team. There’s a lot of guys his size playing in the league."
A defensive end in college, Jones has played the inside linebacker position mostly on third downs this season in obvious passing situations.
The only other time the third-year pro moved to the outside spot was in the Packers' 2013 playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers—when injuries forced Capers' hand.
"Some of his best rushes are from outside,” Trgovac said, via Demovsky. "He absolutely can help us in both of those regards. It was time to do that. We felt like his development was far enough along at his position where he could go and do some more things at another position."
We'll see how much Jones plays on the outside this week. If the move helps out against the run as much it does the pass, the new look might be permanent.
LB Clay Matthews vs. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson
We outlined the dominance of Adrian Peterson earlier, but there's one player on Green Bay's defense who could turn this matchup around—linebacker Clay Matthews.
Matthews will defend the Vikings star from his newfound middle linebacker spot for the first time since he made the position change from the outside last season when Peterson wasn't playing.
The new look could frustrate Peterson on his inside rushes, as Matthews brings an added awareness and playmaking ability to the matchup.
Here's what Matthews had to say about facing Peterson as an inside linebacker, via Mike Spofford of Packers.com:
"You want to be aggressive, you want to go get to the ball, but in a way you have to take yourself out of the play (to put) yourself in the play," Matthews said this week. "Many times (as an outside linebacker) I just kind of hung onto a tight end, just doing my job where you’re not really involved in the play. Next thing you know he bounces outside and you’re there to make the tackle."
"That’s why I say you have to play smart. We’re not asking guys to do too much, just play gap sound. For an outside guy it’s pretty easy, just stay on the outside. You might not be involved in a lot of plays, but eventually when he does decide to bounce it, that’s the big play you need to make."
On Sunday, Packers fans hope Matthews makes enough plays on the inside to slow down Peterson.
CB Damarious Randall vs. Vikings WR Stefon Diggs
These two young playmakers will be going at it for the first time Sunday in what could be a preview of an intense division battle for years to come. Damarious Randall and Stefon Diggs—both rookies—have made huge impacts on their respective teams after slow starts to the season.
Randall, mostly a special teams player to start the year, has made countless big plays in Green Bay's secondary and was even called upon to cover Detroit's Calvin Johnson late in last week's loss. On the other hand, Diggs has quickly become Minnesota's leading receiver (30 catches for 507 yards and two touchdowns) ever since he was inserted into the starting lineup in Week 4.
Game Prediction
It's been a long three weeks for Packers fans, as they've watched their previously undefeated squad fall fast. Unfortunately, Minnesota presents as tough a challenge as any Green Bay has faced this season.
The biggest test on Sunday will be stopping Adrian Peterson and the Vikings' top-ranked rushing attack. If Clay Matthews, Datone Jones and the rest of Dom Capers' defense rises to the challenge, all the Packers need to worry about is a second-year quarterback beating them through the air.
Even if they get that far, Aaron Rodgers will need to vastly improve in leading his team to a few early scores.
This is what's been missing throughout Green Bay's three-game skid. A slow start on offense has made their offense predictable down the stretch. Defenses know Rodgers will be going to the air, and opposing secondaries simply focus on tightly covering any and all receiving options.
If the Packers want to win this game, they'll need to get something out of James Starks, Eddie Lacy and the running game.
Here's the bad news, though. That may be too much to ask.
Final Prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 20
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