Have Ferrari Made a Mistake Retaining Kimi Raikkonen for the 2016 F1 Season?
After last weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix, Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene spoke about his outlook for the 2016 Formula One season and his team's fight with back-to-back champions Mercedes.
"If you want my honest expectation, it's not to be closer to them but to be in front of them," he said, per Sky Sports' Mike Wise. "I tell you with humility but we are closer even now; we must be in front next year."
If that really is Ferrari's forecast—that they will be challenging the Silver Arrows for the world championship—have they made a mistake retaining Kimi Raikkonen alongside Sebastian Vettel for next year?
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
It depends on the team's priorities.
If Ferrari's first goal is for Vettel to win the drivers' championship, then keeping his friend around—the one who has finished ahead of him just three times in 18 grands prix this year—is a smart choice. It keeps Vettel happy while ensuring his team-mate does not steal too many points from him as he hunts down the Mercedes duo (or, more realistically, Lewis Hamilton).
Raikkonen is 36 years old and his skills are slowly fading. That is not meant as an insult, it's just a fact. F1 drivers, like all athletes, do not last forever, and the sport's newest rookie sensation, Max Verstappen, was three years old when Raikkonen made his debut with Sauber in 2001.
As athletes near the age of 40, their abilities generally decline. Even Michael Schumacher, another great Ferrari driver, won his last championship at 35. In his three comeback seasons with Mercedes, starting at age 41, he was handily outscored by his team-mate, Nico Rosberg.
Maybe you read it at the time, but consider again Arrivabene's statement when the team extended Raikkonen's contract for 2016:
"We believe that extending Kimi’s contract into the next season will provide further stability to the team. This has been our guideline, also considering the very good relationship between Kimi and Seb. On our side, this shows our great confidence in him, and I expect this confidence to be well rewarded.
"
No talk of wins or championships, but rather stability and a reference to Raikkonen and Vettel's friendship. It's not the most inspiring of quotes, and the last part sounds vaguely menacing: We've kept you around, now you better deliver.
While Mercedes are actively striving for parity in the treatment of their drivers, not willing to favour either one, Ferrari have usually had a clear No. 1 driver, at least since the Schumacher days. Vettel is clearly in that role now—the man expected to return the Italian team to glory.
However, if Ferrari's top priority is the constructors' championship, then keeping Raikkonen could hurt their chances of winning. With one race remaining this season, Williams' Valtteri Bottas is one point ahead of Raikkonen, despite Raikkonen having the better car. (Bottas might be even further ahead had he not missed the first race of the year with a back injury and had Raikkonen not clumsily taken him out at the end of the Russian Grand Prix.)
If the goal is to maximise the team's points, then retaining Raikkonen is not the best option.
Perhaps Ferrari believe the same thing. After all, Williams' deputy team principal Claire Williams revealed, per ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson, that Ferrari showed interest in signing Bottas over the summer. The interest, at least from Williams' point of view, was not reciprocal.
Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo and Force India's Nico Hulkenberg—more drivers with superstar potential—have also been linked to the Scuderia, as noted by BBC F1 pundit James Allen on his personal website.
Hulkenberg, at 28, is the oldest of that trio, but is still eight years younger than Raikkonen. Any of them would offer more upside than Raikkonen, although the Finn is a known quantity for Ferrari (hence Arrivabene's reference to stability within the team).
Maybe we don't have to guess at Ferrari's priorities, though. By extending Raikkonen's contract, perhaps they have revealed that keeping Vettel happy and winning the drivers' championship is their first goal for next year.
The drivers' championship is the original F1 title and is inherently more prestigious. It is the drivers' champion who has the option of using No. 1 on his car the following year, even if he switches teams. (Hamilton has opted to keep his No. 44, even after winning the title.) Meanwhile, the constructors' championship did not even exist for the first eight seasons of F1.
However, prize money payouts are determined by the constructors' standings, so the argument could easily be made that they are more important, if not prestigious. But as longtime F1 reporter Joe Saward recently demonstrated, Ferrari's F1 programme is quite healthy financially. If they want to sacrifice one or two places in the constructors' table to nab their first drivers' title since Raikkonen won it in 2007, they have the resources to do it.
So, have Ferrari made a mistake retaining Raikkonen for 2016?
If a happy Vettel brings home the drivers' championship, then the answer will be a resounding "No!" But if Mercedes and Ferrari are locked in a tight race and, for example, Hamilton edges Vettel for the drivers' title and Raikkonen's inability to keep pace with his team-mate ends up costing the team the constructors' championship? Well, then the answer to that question would be slightly different.
Follow me on Twitter for updates when I publish new articles and for other (mostly) F1-related news and banter:
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
