Is Miguel Cotto's Resurgence Real or Manufactured?

If you saw this coming on Dec. 1, 2012, give yourself a hand.

Because that night at Madison Square Garden—as he officially lost nine, nine and 11 rounds to a particularly pedestrian Austin Trout—an already 32-year-old Miguel Cotto was roughly as close to boxing’s main stage as Lindsey Graham is to the White House.

Yet somehow, precisely 1,085 nights later, he’ll enter a ring as the A-side of a promotion with a guy—Canelo Alvarez—labeled by ESPN as the 10th-best fighter on the planet.

With apologies to Al Michaels, “Do you believe in miracles?” feels like an understatement.

Cotto defers all renaissance credit to Freddie Roach, the mercurial trainer with whom he joined forces three-and-a-half years after getting beaten senseless by Roach’s other top charge, Manny Pacquiao.

“Freddie and I create a good chemistry. I feel rejuvenated in every aspect of my work,” Cotto said, in the initial edition of HBO’s 24/7 fight preview series. “He is the best thing to ever happen in my career.”

Isaac Brekken/Associated Press

Roach, meanwhile, completes the mutual admiration society by deferring back to the fighter.

“I think the real reason is that he rededicated himself,” Roach said. “He’s a better fighter now than he’s ever been because he has a coach that he can trust, and I have a fighter that I can trust.”

Still, while the Puerto Rican has been special in dispatching three post-Trout foes with barely 17 rounds of exertion, the sheer unlikelihood of the turnaround prompts some to keep giving it the sniff test.

After all, Delvin Rodriguez had been a .500 fighter for three years heading into his Cotto match, while gimpy middleweight kingpin Sergio Martinez was inactive for 14 months and Aussie pretender Daniel Geale hadn’t lasted three rounds in a challenge of fellow 160-pound claimant Gennady Golovkin.

“I believe he has gotten back to what made him great, and you can credit Freddie for that,” said Kevin Rooney Jr., director of public relations for DiBella Entertainment and son of Mike Tyson’s ex-trainer. “He's believing in himself again and has gotten back to fighting in that aggressive style that he fought in when he was tearing through the ranks coming up. That being said, though, the fighters he has faced have also enabled him to look sensational. Delvin and Geale weren't in his league, and a prime Sergio Martinez—who fought Chavez—would have totally had his way.”

Neither Rodriguez nor Geale have won since facing Cotto, and Martinez retired 12 months later.

Cotto won 32 fights and two title belts in his first seven years as a pro, but had lost four times in four years—two by brutal stoppage, two by wide decision—before hitching up to Roach’s wagon in 2013.

Like Rooney, Tom Loeffler—managing director of Golovkin’s promoter—sees both sides, too.

“He seems dramatically different with his new training regime with Freddie Roach,” he said. “(But it’s) hard to judge based solely on opposition, as Sergio clearly was not 100 percent with his knee injuries and Geale at 157 was definitely weakened by the weight drain.”

As for the oddsmakers, they’re not putting their money where Cotto’s revival is.

Alvarez is a definitive favorite, meaning it’ll take a $305 wager on him to make a $100 profit at Odds Shark. A $100 outlay on Cotto, though, would yield a $275 profit in the event of an upset.

Cotto, incidentally, brought in $175 for a $100 bet on him as an underdog to Martinez.

Count Randy Gordon, however, among those expecting the older man to once again falter.

“He beat average Delvin Rodriguez and followed by facing broken-down Sergio Martinez,” the former Ring Magazine editor-in-chief said. “Then came a fight against weight-drained Daniel Geale. Cotto is a junior middleweight at best. I have to figure he will give a typical gutsy Cotto performance on Saturday, but in reality, he is in way over his head.”

 

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.