The Biggest NASCAR Storylines as the Season Wraps Up at Homestead

Now that the tires have had time to deflate from Sunday’s rain-shortened semifinal (thanks, El Nino), we can turn our attention to the rain-threatened Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead to see who will walk away with their fifth, second or first Sprint Cups.

Rain? Again? There’s no greater time to drop a WTF than now.

Cole Pearn, crew chief to the No. 78, said in Jared Turner’s FoxSports.com story:

"

Pretty much between myself and three other engineers, we really monitor different forecasts, different radars to try and stay up on it. I think everybody got thrown for a little bit of a loop this past weekend in Phoenix, but obviously South Florida weather is very humid and easy to have pop-up showers at any point.

"

The weather, if nothing else, at least deflects from what will be a nauseating week of Jeff Gordon obits. Everybody, including Gordon (one presumes), is ready for this farewell season to be over with. He’d probably come back for another year if it meant he didn’t have to keep those Shetland ponies he received in Texas.

Pardon…

The season started in Florida, and now it ends in Florida. Let’s hit up these storylines for one last rodeo.

Matt Kenseth Returns After Two-Race Suspension

Don Petersen/Associated Press

If ever there was a time Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s reign as NASCAR’s most popular driver was in jeopardy, it would be now, given the reaction fans had when Matt Kenseth played plow to Joey Logano’s snow at Martinsville.

It’s funny.

After that wreck, Kenseth contended he had a right-front tire go down, and that led to him, you know, accelerating his No. 20 Camry into the No. 22. Then after Kenseth was suspended for the Texas and Phoenix races, he said in an Associated Press story (h/t FoxSports.com):

"

I feel like there's a breaking point. It wasn't just about being mad, it was about getting this fixed. It was time to make it stop. 'You have to have respect in the garage area. If you are going to go out and try to race for wins and race for championships, you can't be a doormat or next year you are going to get knocked out again. Drivers are going to be like, 'Well, he ain't going to do nothing. We'll just knock him out of the race and then jack with him as much as possible and make sure he's not going to make it through because he's not going to retaliate.'

At some point, in my opinion, you have to retaliate.

"

Sooooo, now he’s back for the final race, no doubt tickled pink that Logano’s six wins mean little. Also, Kenseth knows he’s got a teammate in Kyle Busch alive to for the title.

Speaking of retaliation, is it outside the realm of possibility to think Logano won’t try something against Kenseth? NASCAR will have to lock away Logano’s dad and let this thing play out.

This has championship-upstaging-stakes potential if it goes down.

This Is It (Finally) for Jeff Gordon

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

ICYMI, Gordon will retire after this race at Homestead. It even has FoxSports.com’s Larry McReynolds so excited he wrote this paragraph:

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Sunday at Homestead is one of those moments in our sport that is truly the end of an era. Whether he wins his fifth and final championship or not doesn't matter, in all honesty, compared to what Jeff Gordon has done for the sport of NASCAR. We could write articles about Jeff all week and still only scratch the surface.

"

It’d be mean to tear this paragraph apart, but let’s just say a week full of more Gordon-ese and hearing him yell from his Martinsville post-race rave, “We’re going to HomeSTEEEEEEAAAAAD!” has already reached the saturation point.

Gordon may be the story of the Chase and an easy chew toy to distract people from Weather Gate, but does he have a chance at Homestead?

The No. 24 won this race in 2012 and he led 161 of 267 laps last year after winning the pole. In addition, he has that certain—what is it?—John Elway thing going for him.

Martin Truex Jr. Attempts the Impossible

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

The way Martin Truex Jr. racked up top 10s this year, a berth in the Chase seemed likely. Reaching the Contender Round looked like a possibility. The Eliminator Round smelled doubtful yet doable, but Homestead? That’s like Ryan Newman reaching Miami without winning a single race in the first year of a win-and-you’re-in format.

Here we are with Truex, one of the four drivers left standing after a Chase that has seen mechanical failures, retaliations and weather. Truex has survived it all.

He challenges drivers from four-car garages, he being from a one-car outfit makes this attempt something akin to David v. Goliath. And, as FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen noted, Truex has finished worse than No. 11 only one time since 2006.

Truex said in Steve Politi’s NJ.com story:

"

We know where we want to go, we feel like we can get there, and if we just don't beat ourselves and nothing crazy happens, we can go all the way to Homestead and have a chance. A lot of things have to go our way, but we're going to work as hard as we can. We feel like we have the team to do it and the speed to do it, and that's what it's all about.

"

Nothing crazy happening? That wouldn’t be Chase-y, would it?

Kyle Busch Could Lose Pit Selection

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

At this point, one of the things that’s as tedious as the Gordon Farewell Tour (GFT) is the Kyle Busch Recovery Run (KBRR). If you’re reading this, then you know the story. If you don’t know, Google Kyle + Busch + Broken Leg.

Rowdy isn’t as dominant as he was during the summer stretch that saw him win four races, three of them in a row. That’s a NASCAR turkey. T’is the season.

But a late development could hamper his chances. Busch failed a LASER Inspection Platform twice in pre-race. After a fourth failure, he loses his chance to choose his pit (depending on qualifying, of course).

Adam Stevens, Busch’s crew chief, couldn’t care less. He said in Jared Turner’s FoxSports.com story:

"

I don't think it puts us behind, but certainly we'll make a couple extra trips across the platform before practice starts to make sure that we know exactly where our stuff is, and if there's anything that's marginal or a number we're chasing, we'll make sure that we're on the short side of it rather than taking a chance of having to go around.

"

Busch has had a sneaky-good Chase with six top 10s overall and three top fives in the Eliminator Round.

With Kevin Harvick defending his title, the GFT in full effect and the Truex Feel-Good Story (TFGS) rolling into Miami, it’s easy to overlook Busch.

Not too long ago we were talking about how invincible the Joe Gibbs cars were.

What changed?

Beware the Defending Champion

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Here’s the thing with Harvick: He’s been so good this year that we’ve taken him for granted.

Also, because he won "only" three races (two in March), Harvick’s easy to sweep aside in favor of drivers like Busch (four wins), Jimmie Johnson (five wins), Kenseth (five wins) and Logano (six wins).

But Harvick amassed 12 runner-ups and two wins. So 14 times this season Harvick finished second or better. He has 27 top 10s, an average finish of 8.9, and he did it while only winning two poles.

Let’s not fail to mention that the No. 4 car has seen its share of hurdles throughout the previous nine races.

"We've overcome a lot of things throughout the Chase," Harvick said in Bob Pockrass’ ESPN.com story. "We've survived and advanced. It hasn't been 100 percent pretty from one end to the other, but I think as you look at the Chase, it's been championship material and that's proven by making it to the championship race."

Harvick has battle scars from this Chase and last year’s. He’s the favorite and a deserving one at that.

Would it surprise anyone if Harvick leads more than 200 laps at Homestead? Given that Harvick won at Homestead last year with a car Rodney Childers, the crew chief, deemed not “very good,” Harvick’s chances look solid.

But another question worth asking is this: Is his luck about to expire?