What Each Championship 4 Driver Must Do to Win the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Title
And then there were four.
After 35 points races, precisely nine months and seemingly countless controversies, the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship will be decided this Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The Championship 4 field of the Chase for the Sprint Cup has been set and includes Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, defending Sprint Cup champion Kevin Harvick and four-time Cup champ Jeff Gordon.
Who has the edge heading into the winner-takes-all season finale, where the title contenders do not need to win the race but may have to in order to ensure they outrun the other three? (That's what Harvick had to do to win it all last season).
Asked to break down who might have the advantage in a news conference following last Sunday's rain-shortened race at Phoenix, three of the four drivers remaining in the hunt offered this friendly banter:
Gordon, pointing to Harvick: "The past [2014] champion probably has—if anybody has an advantage."
Harvick, pointing to Gordon: "He's got four championships so I think he's got the advantage."
Gordon: "That means absolutely nothing."
Busch, pointing to himself: "I've got no championships. I'm playing with house money, so I've got the advantage."
Gordon: "I'm playing with house money, too."
So the mind games already have begun. Does anyone really have an advantage? Read on to find out who just might, and why.
Martin Truex Jr.
1 of 4
Homestead history: In 10 career starts at the 1.5-mile track, Truex has never won. But he does have three top-five and seven top-10 finishes and usually finishes better than where he starts, with an average finish of 10.0 and an average starting position of 14.6. At no other track on the Sprint Cup circuit is his average finish 4.6 spots greater than his average starting position, so he knows how to make up ground at HMS when his car has speed in it. His best finish was second in 2006, but he also finished third in 2011 and fourth in 2013. He's finished worse than 11th only once in his career, with one of those runs a 17th-place effort last year in his first season at Furniture Row Racing.
Winning strategy: He's finished third, sixth and fourth in three of the last four races at HMS, and on each of those occasions he qualified for a starting position of eighth or better. Taking into account that in his career he's made up more than four-and-a-half positions per race from his starting spot to his finish, and it's obvious that qualifying well is more important than ever. Plus his No. 78 Chevrolet has at times lacked the speed of his three Championship 4 counterparts on the 1.5-mile tracks, so starting toward the front would theoretically make it less necessary for him and crew chief Cole Pearn to muster the speed needed to pass a bunch of cars during the race. Truex has been steady most of the year, so he is the one driver most likely to stay out of trouble and perhaps benefit the most if one or more of the other contenders suffer a mechanical failure or a snafu on pit road.
Potential pitfalls: As a one-car team with only a limited technical alliance with Richard Childress Racing, and having announced that it is switching manufacturers to Toyota next season, it does not appear that Furniture Row Racing has the overall resources to match the mighty foes at Hendrick Motorsports (Gordon), Stewart-Haas Racing (Harvick) or Joe Gibbs Racing (Busch). Also, this is the first time driver, crew chief or pit crew has sniffed a championship, and the pressure will be on like they've never experienced previously. That could lead to uncharacteristic but costly mistakes that they've pretty much avoided all year.
Prediction: Twelfth in the race, fourth in the Championship 4.
Jeff Gordon
2 of 4
Homestead history: In 16 career starts, Gordon has one win, seven top-five and 12 top-10 finishes at the track. His average finish of 10.6 is nearly five full positions ahead of his average start (15.5), so he also knows how to make the pass at this place. Gordon's lone victory at HMS came in 2012, but he led 161 of 267 laps before settling for 10th last year. He also has finished third once, fourth twice, fifth three times, sixth once and seventh once.
Winning strategy: Gordon no doubt will have the full, formidable force of Hendrick Motorsports behind him and his No. 24 Chevrolet team led by crew chief Alan Gustafson. That is no small matter. It means every Hendrick engineer, all the crew chiefs of the other three Hendrick teams and even the other Hendrick drivers (Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne) will be doing everything they can to help Gordon win a fifth title in his final race before retirement. If that calls for one of the other Hendrick drivers to block for him, or to choose a pit stall that will mess with one of the other title contenders, then so be it. As for his driving strategy, Gordon said: "It's an abrasive track. Pit strategy is extremely important as we saw last year, [as is] running up against the wall, picking different lanes. I mean, there's going to be a lot of factors."
Potential pitfalls: Gordon's hopes for a storybook end to a season that lacked a win until just three weeks ago at Martinsville could come up short if, despite all the Hendrick firepower behind him, the No. 24 car just can't match the speed of Harvick and/or Busch. They've been a tick or two behind that pair virtually all season, despite the recent win at Martinsville (which was a bit of a gift after Matt Kenseth deliberately took out race leader and top Chase title contender Joey Logano). Gordon has finished 10th or better in six consecutive races and in all but two of the Chase races, which is good, but not likely to be good enough to steal a title at HMS unless something happens to Harvick or Busch.
Prediction: Seventh in the race, third in the Championship 4.
Kevin Harvick
3 of 4
Homestead history: His lone win came in last year's season finale, when he had to win to secure his first championship. He has a total of six top-five and 12 top-10 finishes in 14 career starts, so the odds of him not running well are very slim. In addition to winning in the clutch last year, he also has finished second twice and third twice. And his average career finish at HMS is 7.6—nearly six full spots better than his average start.
Winning strategy: Last year Harvick kept his No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet clean, was aggressive on restarts and went from 12th to first over the final 15 laps to win the race and the championship. That is his style, and he left no doubt that it will be his strategy again when asked about it by reporters after Phoenix. It helps that he has complete confidence, and justifiably so, that crew chief Rodney Childers will put one of the fastest cars in the race (if not the fastest) underneath him. "I feel like the playbook worked OK last year, so we'll just try that again," Harvick said.
Potential pitfalls: Harvick will need to be careful not to get too aggressive on the restarts, which can be tricky. He'll also have to exercise patience if he gets caught up around or behind one of the other Hendrick cars, which no doubt will make it difficult for him to pass as they attempt to help assist Gordon's title hopes. And finally, the pit stops of his crew will have to be clean throughout and especially toward the end.
Prediction: Second in the race, second in the Championship 4.
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Kyle Busch
4 of 4
Homestead history: His career numbers at the 1.5-mile track are fairly horrible. In 10 starts, Busch has only one top-five and three top-10 finishes with an average finish of 23.1 that is far worse than his average start of 14.1. He finished 39th last year, and has finishes 23rd or worse seven times, including 32nd or worse four times. But guess what? Those numbers mean next to nothing this year, and we'll explain why.
Winning strategy: Busch finished fourth in 2012 and seventh in 2013, so he knows how to get around at HMS in his No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. But he usually arrives here for the season finale already out of the Chase, with nothing to run for. That's not a recipe for a success for the ultra-competitive Busch, but this time he's running for a championship and his focus is going to be razor-sharp. He has the most victories this season of any of the Championship 4 despite running 11 fewer races because of the time he missed after suffering serious leg and foot injuries in the season-opening XFINITY Series race at Daytona. And speaking of that series, Busch is the only Championship 4 driver who also will participate in this weekend's XFINITY race, giving him valuable extra practice time on the track. When asked about his strategy, he said the key for him will be to treat it like any other race, adding: "Once you get in the race car and you put your helmet on and you're by yourself, it's you and your crew chief and your spotter, that's pretty much all the communication you have the rest of the time, and you just try to race these guys like you have for—I don't know, I've been doing it I guess 15, 16 years. ... Like Jeff [Gordon] said, the only lap we want to lead is the last one."
Potential pitfalls: Crew chief Adam Stevens and the entire JGR camp has been pushing the envelope, testing the limits in pre-race inspections lately at every turn. They'll no doubt do it again, trying to squeeze every millisecond of speed out of the car, but they will need to be careful not to push it too far and force NASCAR's hand. NASCAR isn't going to penalize any of the Championship 4 cars, but it could make life difficult by forcing the team to make last-minute changes that would make it drive drastically different in the race than it has in practice and/or qualifying. Then it would be up to Busch as the driver to cope with the changes and adjust on the fly, which would be difficult.
Prediction: Busch wins the race and his first championship, completing a remarkable comeback story after his terrible injuries suffered earlier in the year.
Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report while also assisting in NASCAR coverage for FoxSports.com as a Digital Content Producer. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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