Week Four College Football Picks

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 15 Miami (FL) 31 @ No. 22 Virginia Tech 23

Miami is entering its third game of a gauntlet involving four teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25. The Hurricanes already defeated ACC foes Florida State and Georgia Tech and get Oklahoma in two weeks.

This week, they travel to Blacksburg to face a Virginia Tech Hokies team that just won over Nebraska in dramatic fashion.

While many may be expecting a "typical," low-scoring, close ACC game, it could easily be a high-scoring shootout.

Jacory Harris, the Hurricanes' sophomore quarterback is averaging an astounding 11.1 yards-per-pass-attempt by completing 69.5 percent of his 59 attempts for 656 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions.

And it's not like those have come against Central Arkansas, Washington State, and UNLV (like Hawaii's Greg Alexander who has similar numbers).

Harris has posted huge stats against what should be good ACC defenses. Florida State just kept Max Hall and BYU in check and Georgia Tech held Clemson to under 50% completions and intercepted two passes.

Harris is clearly in sync with his offense, completing three throws of 40 yards, while averaging at least 14 yards-per-completion to all (nine) of his receivers.

Virginia Tech's defense is very good, but it probably will not be able to hold off Harris and the big-play Canes all game.

Unless he gets another 30 seconds to find a receiver in a critical situation, Tyrod Taylor (2009 stats: 47.6 percent completions and 0.4 yards-per-rush on 24 carries) and Virginia Tech's offense are probably not going to be able to keep up.

Miami wins 74.9 percent of the 10,000 simulations and by an average score of 31-23.

Other Notable Games in Week Four:

The start of the Big Ten season highlights the marquee conference games of the week. Penn State runs over Iowa, winning 76.1% of the time at home and by an average score of 25-14.

At Camp Randall, Wisconsin fends off Michigan State in a relative shootout 64.7% of the time and by an average score of 31-25.

Ohio State routs Illinois in Columbus 85.8 percent of the time and by an average score of 34-17.

Elsewhere in conference play, Cal goes to Oregon and wins 75.6 percent of the time and by an average score of 23-17.

Florida shuts down Kentucky, winning 88.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 26-11.

Alabama out-duels Arkansas 79.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 34-23.

Washington continues its winning ways by traveling to Stanford and emerging victorious 74.6% of the time and by an average score of 28-22.

As conference play has begun for most teams, there are not too many notable non-conference matchups, but there are still a few to watch.

At home, Georgia takes out a good Arizona State squad 65.7% of the time and by an average score of 23-16.

Cincinnati, our No. 4 team in our new power rankings, continues its winning ways by defeating Fresno State 86.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 40-23.

South Florida, which just lost three-year starting quarterback Matt Grothe to an ACL tear, goes down to the Florida State Seminoles 71.6 percent of the time and by an average score of 30-19. With Grothe, the Bulls would actually be slight favorites.

Houston, which looks like it has a solid chance at a BCS bowl, stays unbeaten by winning over Texas Tech 81.6% of the time an by an average score of 36-23.

And finally, with the computer finally starting to like them, the Auburn Tigers beat Ball State 95 percent of the time and by an average score of 42-7.

To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Week Four Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Grambling State @ Oklahoma State	95.0	6.9-50.1
Northwestern State @ Baylor	95.0	7.6-40.8
UTEP @ Texas	95.0	5.4-45.4
Rhode Island @ Connecticut	95.0	5.9-28.0
Sam Houston State @ Tulsa	95.0	6.5-39.8
Western Kentucky @ Navy	95.0	9.0-38.3
Washington State @ USC	95.0	7.1-34.4
Ball State @ Auburn	95.0	6.6-42.3
Hofstra @ Western Michigan	93.5	7.6-26.8
Tennessee Tech @ Kansas State	92.8	8.5-25.8
Army @ Iowa State	92.5	8.3-27.9
San Diego State @ Air Force	91.5	7.0-28.0
Maine @ Syracuse	91.0	6.8-21.8
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Nebraska	90.5	12.0-31.2
Ohio @ Tennessee	90.0	8.7-23.4
Southern Utah @ Utah State	89.6	11.6-30.0
Fresno State @ Cincinnati	86.1	22.6-40.3
Illinois @ Ohio State	85.8	17.2-33.5
UAB @ Texas A&M	85.6	17.1-33.9
Southern Miss @ Kansas	85.4	15.0-30.2
Indiana @ Michigan	84.0	10.5-25.8
Texas Tech @ Houston	81.6	23.3-35.9
Idaho @ Northern Illinois	80.4	13.8-28.2
Arkansas @ Alabama	79.1	22.8-34.0
North Carolina Central @ Duke	77.6	9.7-19.6
Iowa @ Penn State	76.1	14.1-24.9
Colorado State @ Brigham Young	75.6	25.4-35.7
Miami (OH) @ Kent State	75.0	7.9-17.7
McNeese State @ Tulane	74.1	14.5-23.5
Akron @ Central Michigan	73.6	17.7-27.0
South Florida @ Florida State	71.6	18.5-30.0
UCF @ East Carolina	68.7	11.6-19.1
Arizona @ Oregon State	68.2	16.7-23.2
Arizona State @ Georgia	65.7	16.3-22.8
Michigan State @ Wisconsin	64.7	25.2-31.1
Wake Forest @ Boston College	61.7	13.3-17.5
Louisville @ Utah	56.7	20.0-24.2
Troy @ Arkansas State	55.7	21.6-25.2
Cal Poly @ San Jose State	53.2	17.5-20.4
Minnesota @ Northwestern	36.8	26.5-23.7
New Mexico State @ New Mexico	35.5	18.2-15.1
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas	29.9	17.7-12.7
Louisiana-Monroe @ Florida Atlantic	29.9	20.9-16.4
Washington @ Stanford	25.4	28.4-21.5
Miami (FL) @ Virginia Tech	25.1	30.5-23.0
California @ Oregon	24.4	23.1-17.0
Marshall @ Memphis	22.0	21.4-13.2
Notre Dame @ Purdue	21.4	39.1-29.0
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina State	20.8	22.4-13.9
Buffalo @ Temple	19.9	25.7-16.3
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas	19.9	26.5-19.2
TCU @ Clemson	18.4	21.8-13.0
Boise State @ Bowling Green	15.9	23.8-12.8
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech	13.9	23.8-13.0
Mississippi @ South Carolina	12.9	27.3-14.8
Florida @ Kentucky	11.9	25.6-10.9
Vanderbilt @ Rice	10.9	25.0- 9.6
Missouri @ Nevada	10.6	36.0-20.6
Rutgers @ Maryland	9.5	32.5-17.3
Toledo @ Florida International	8.0	31.4-13.0
LSU @ Mississippi State	6.5	27.6- 9.7
UNLV @ Wyoming	5.0	32.8-11.5

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!