Predicting Final Vote Totals for Every Major 2015 MLB Award
While Bryce Harper is a stone-cold lock to run away with the National League MVP honors, it's not easy to forecast the outcomes for many of the 2015 MLB award races.
After sifting through the stats from the season that was and examining the Baseball Writers' Association of America ballots from recent campaigns, what follows are predictions for final vote totals for the three finalists in each race.
Before getting started with the predictions, the voting process needs to be broken down. For each award, 30 voters cast ballots. As will be laid out in the slides that follow, first-place, second-place and third-place votes (and so on) are attached to different point values for different awards.
With those rules in place, let's predict which stars will win in landslides, like Harper, and which big names will be involved in fierce races.
AL Rookie of the Year
1 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = Five Points
- Second-Place Vote = Three Points
- Third-Place Vote = One Point
Announcement Date: Monday, Nov. 16
The Field
- Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
- Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
- Miguel Sano, DH, Minnesota Twins
Predicted Final Vote
- Correa: 120 points (15 first-place votes and 15 second-place votes
- Lindor: 90 points (10 first-place votes, 10 second-place votes and 10 third-place votes)
- Sano: 50 points (five first-place votes, five second-place votes and 10 third-place votes)
There's no wrong choice here.
Miguel Sano topped the group with a .916 OPS, but the Minnesota Twins' first-year designated hitter simply isn't as well-rounded a player as the two shortstops.
When it comes to Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, it's awfully difficult to separate the two. Both excelled in the field and did plenty of damage at the plate. Correa clocked in with an .857 OPS while mashing 22 home runs. Lindor ended the campaign with an .835 OPS and 12 yard shots.
One advantage that Correa has is that he enjoyed a much higher national profile during the regular season because the wild-card winning Houston Astros were one of the biggest surprises of the season. Meanwhile, Lindor and the Cleveland Indians didn't generate a ton of buzz, as the club was on the fringe of the American League playoff conversation.
In this ultra-competitive vote, that could end up being the factor that gives the edge to Correa, who has already been named the AL Outstanding Rookie.
NL Rookie of the Year
2 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = Five Points
- Second-Place Vote = Three Points
- Third-Place Vote = One Point
Announcement Date: Monday, Nov. 16
The Field
- Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
- Matt Duffy, 3B, San Francisco Giants
- Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Final Vote
- Bryant: 150 points (30 first-place votes)
- Kang: 64 points (18 second-place votes and 10 third-place votes)
- Duffy: 44 points (12 second-place votes and eight third-place votes)
Like Jose Abreu a season ago, Kris Bryant is about to become a unanimous Rookie of The Year.
In 2015, the Chicago Cubs third baseman cracked 26 home runs, which was the most among all first-year players in baseball. He also led the way in WAR (6.5), according to FanGraphs.
In his debut campaign, Bryant demonstrated a knack for providing clutch knocks. The 23-year-old racked up 17 game-winning RBI, which was the highest output for a rookie since Hideki Matsui in 2003, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.
His skipper, Joe Maddon, offered some lofty praise for the NL All-Star.
"He's a good baseball player," Maddon told Muskat. "He's one of the better young baseball players I've had. Period."
That's bad news for the likes of Jung Ho Kang (.816 OPS) and Matt Duffy (.747 OPS), who put up impressive numbers but who have no shot at upsetting Bryant in this race.
AL Manager of the Year
3 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = Five Points
- Second-Place Vote = Three Points
- Third-Place Vote = One Point
Announcement Date: Tuesday, Nov. 17
The Field
- Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers
- A.J. Hinch, Houston Astros
- Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins
Predicted Final Vote
- Banister: 150 points (30 first-place votes)
- Hinch: 64 points (18 second-place votes and 10 third-place votes)
- Molitor: 44 points (12 second-place votes and eight third-place votes)
There's no obvious favorite in this competition, as Jeff Banister, A.J. Hinch and Paul Molitor all skippered clubs that drastically shattered expectations in 2015.
When it comes to judging a manager, there's no more important consideration than the final standings. For that reason, Banister, whose squad piled up more wins than those of Hinch and Molitor, deserves to get the nod.
As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News noted, Banister has the chance to become the fifth rookie manager to snag this award. However, that's something of an ominous distinction, as Matt Williams, who was fired by the Washington Nationals after the 2015 season, was the last guy to join that club.
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NL Manager of the Year
4 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = Five Points
- Second-Place Vote = Three Points
- Third-Place Vote = One Point
Announcement Date: Tuesday, Nov. 17
The Field
- Terry Collins, New York Mets
- Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs
- Mike Matheny, St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted Final Vote
- Maddon: 122 points (18 first-place votes, 10 second-place votes and two third-place votes)
- Matheny: 91 points (eight first-place votes, 15 second-place votes and six third-place votes
- Collins: 35 points (two first-place votes, five second-place votes and 10 third-place votes)
Joe Maddon sure made his mark in his first go-around at Wrigley Field. With a roster littered with rookies, Maddon guided the upstart Chicago Cubs to a 97-win campaign. To put that into perspective, that's 24 more wins than the club tallied back in 2014.
In the competition for top skipper in the Senior Circuit, Maddon's fiercest challenger is Mike Matheny, the man at the helm for the 100-win St. Louis Cardinals. The most remarkable part about the often-unheralded Matheny is that he led the Cards to the best record in baseball despite the flood of injuries that hit the rotation and the batting order.
Terry Collins, who led the New York Mets to their first NL East crown since 2006, looks set to finish a distant third on this ballot. Some of the credit for the Mets' second-half surge will have to be shared with general manager Sandy Alderson, who engineered the season-saving trade for Yoenis Cespedes.
Collins is a long shot for this honor, but the Mets have already rewarded the oldest manager in baseball with a new two-year contract extension.
AL Cy Young Award
5 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = Seven Points
- Second-Place Vote = Four Points
- Third-Place Vote = Three Points
- Fourth-Place Vote = Two Points
- Fifth-Place Vote = One Point
Announcement Date: Wednesday, Nov. 19
The Field
- Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
- Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
- David Price, Toronto Blue Jays
Predicted Final Vote
- Price: 177 points (19 first-place votes and 11 second-place votes)
- Keuchel: 148 points (11 first-place votes, 14 second-place votes and five third-place votes)
- Gray: 56 points (five second-place votes and 12 third-place votes)
For much of the season, Sonny Gray looked like the front-runner in this chase, but the right-hander slumped badly down the stretch. In five September starts, Gray ran up a 6.84 ERA for the Oakland Athletics.
Meanwhile, David Price's campaign trended in the opposite direction. After reeling off a 2.28 ERA in August, the lefty recorded a 2.34 ERA in September. As a result of that run, Price checked in with the lowest ERA in the circuit (2.45), as he just edged out Dallas Keuchel (2.48).
The most glaring weakness on Keuchel's Cy Young resume was his poor form on the road. The starter compiled a 1.46 ERA at home but posted a 3.77 ERA away from Minute Maid Park.
NL Cy Young Award
6 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = Seven Points
- Second-Place Vote = Four Points
- Third-Place Vote = Three Points
- Fourth-Place Vote = Two Points
- Fifth-Place Vote = One Point
Announcement Date: Wednesday, Nov. 19
The Field
- Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
- Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted Final Vote
- Greinke: 168 points (16 first-place votes and 14 second-place votes)
- Arrieta: 149 points (12 first-place votes, 14 second-place votes and three third-place votes)
- Kershaw: 82 points (two first-place votes, two second-place votes and 20 third-place votes)
Back in October, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports dubbed this battle between Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw "the granddaddy of all the races this year." That assessment was spot on.
In terms of advanced numbers, Kershaw was the king. Per FanGraphs, the lefty led all starters in FIP (1.99), xFIP (2.09) and WAR (8.6). Then there's Arrieta and his unreal second half. The 29-year-old gave up nine earned runs in 15 starts following the Midsummer Classic.
As impressive as those performances were, it's just not possible to ignore the season-long genius of Greinke, who paced baseball with a 1.66 ERA. That was the lowest figure for a qualifying starter since Greg Maddux sported a 1.63 ERA back in 1995, according to Stats.
AL MVP
7 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = 14 Points
- Second-Place Vote = Nine Points
- Third-Place Vote = Eight Points
- Fourth-Place Vote = Seven Points (Six points for Fifth Place and so on)
Announcement Date: Thursday, Nov. 19
The Field
- Lorenzo Cain, CF, Kansas City Royals
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
- Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Predicted Final Vote
- Donaldson: 360 points (18 first-place votes, 12 second-place votes)
- Trout: 330 points (12 first-place votes, 18 second-place votes)
- Cain: 220 points (15 third-place votes, 10 fourth-place votes and five fifth-place votes)
With Josh Donaldson and Mike Trout set to battle for the AL's top honor, there's an excellent chance that the sneaky good Lorenzo Cain (.307 average, 16 homers and 28 steals in 2015) will clean up on third-place votes.
When it comes to picking between Donaldson and Trout, this is about as close as it gets. Trout has the slight advantage in average (.299 to .297) and WAR (9.0 to 8.7), according to FanGraphs. The sluggers each hit 41 home runs, and Donaldson had the clear edge in RBI (123 to 90).
The distinguishing factor between these two is where their respective clubs ended up in the standings. Donaldson powered the Toronto Blue Jays to the top of the AL East, while Trout's Los Angeles Angels wobbled out of the playoff picture in the second half.
NL MVP
8 of 8
The BBWAA Point System
- First-Place Vote = 14 Points
- Second-Place Vote = Nine Points
- Third-Place Vote = Eight Points
- Fourth-Place Vote = Seven Points (Six points for Fifth Place and so on)
Announcement Date: Thursday, Nov. 19
The Field
- Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
- Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Predicted Final Vote
- Harper: 420 points (30 first-place votes)
- Votto: 272 points (12 second-place votes, 10 third-place votes, eight fourth-place votes)
- Goldschmidt: 232 points (10 second-place votes, eight third-place votes, six fourth-place votes and six fifth-place votes)
This was an easy call to make.
According to FanGraphs, Bryce Harper, who slugged 42 jacks for the Washington Nationals, led all of baseball with a WAR of 9.5. Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves attempted to put the right fielder's monster campaign in the nation's capital into a historical perspective.
"It reminds you of Barry Bonds," Freeman said, per Eddie Matz of ESPN.
Bonds won his first MVP at the age of 25, but Harper is about to get his first at 23. While Harper is the clear pick in this field, Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt are certainly worthy of honorable mentions as the top runners-up.
Per FanGraphs, the first basemen tied for second in the NL with a WAR of 7.4. Both Votto and Goldschmidt will tally plenty of second-place and third-place votes, but non-finalists like Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rizzo and Zack Greinke shouldn't be too far behind when all the ballots are accounted for.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All award information courtesy of BBWAA.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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