Around NASCAR: Predicting the Last 3 Drivers for the Season Finale at Homestead

With only one spot filled and only one race remaining to determine which four NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers will comprise the Championship 4 in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, only one really important question remains.

Who will join Jeff Gordon in the group of four who will battle each other in the winner-takes-all finale at the 1.5-mile track on Nov. 22?

We're here to tell you. The final three participants to join Gordon will be determined this Sunday in the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Based on a combination of past history at the one-mile track, recent performance in the current Chase for the Sprint Cup and (hopefully) keen instinct of what is likely to happen, here are my three picks:

1. Kevin Harvick. He's not only the defending Sprint Cup champion, but he's the three-time defending champion of this fall race at Phoenix and winner of four consecutive races overall at the track, plus five of the last six. He won there last year with his season on the line, and it would be foolish to bet against him again. But the real key is that with where he's sitting in the current Chase standings—third and 10 points ahead of Carl Edwards in fifth—he won't even have to win to advance on to Homestead.

"I feel like that can be gone at any point," Harvick said of his Phoenix domination. "That's the hardest thing about having success. You have to have an open mind or are not willing to try a fresh approach, then it will get stagnant. You're going to become stale and be left behind."

2. Kyle Busch. Currently second in the points, one ahead of Harvick but four in front of Martin Truex Jr. in fourth and 11 in front of Edwards in fifth, Busch doesn't need to win the race to advance either. He wrecked with 100 laps to go in the last fall race at the track, which eventually caused him to finish four laps down in 34th place. So he can't have that happen again, but in five of the previous seven races he finished ninth or better, which would be plenty good enough to get him to Homestead.

"If we're running fifth to 10th, that's what we need to do. If we're running 15th and there's a guy behind us that if he passes us he's going to get himself in and knock us out, you're going to have a heck of a lot harder race on your hands," Busch said.

3. Kurt Busch. Here's the wild card. The elder Busch brother is Harvick's teammate at Stewart-Haas Racing. Let's say both run well and at the end a Kurt win will get him in the Chase. It wouldn't be in Harvick's nature at all to let it happen, but let's just say if they're both up front, Harvick isn't as likely to race as hard for the win and risk wrecking them both when a top-five finish probably is more than enough for Harvick to advance. Busch has finished seventh or better in three of the last four Phoenix races he's run (both he and Kyle missed the race there earlier this season) but hasn't won at the track since 2005. Now is the time for him to step up and pull off the upset.

"It's gotten pretty crazy," the elder of the racing Busch brothers said. "There are a lot of guys who think they need to be in that top four who aren't, and there are guys who are in it who want to defend those positions. The Chase is definitely at a boiling point for everybody." 

Odd men out: This scenario would leave Martin Truex Jr., who is currently fourth in the Chase standings, seven points clear of Edwards in fifth, out of the Championship 4. Edwards would miss out too. But the facts are that even though he's won Phoenix twice, Edwards has finished 13th or worse in three of his last four races since winning at the track in the spring of 2013, with eighth being his best finish in that span. None of that is likely to be good enough. Truex, meanwhile, not only has never won at Phoenix but has only one top-five finish and an average finish of 17.1 in 19 career starts.

Is the Chase format working?

With all the controversy surrounding the Chase elimination format, or at least how the drivers are conducting themselves under it, questions have been raised about whether it's working.

Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth, who have won 11 races between them, have likely ruined each other's title chances (Logano must win at Phoenix to advance, while Kenseth, already eliminated earlier from the Chase, is serving a two-race suspension for deliberately wrecking Logano at Martinsville). Harvick stayed in the Chase at Talladega only after appearing to deliberately cause a wreck to bring out the final caution.

So is it "working?" That's a vague way to describe the Chase. But it's interesting that while the Chase is getting bashed—often by drivers (such as Denny Hamlin on Twitter after Talladega) and by fans on social media—the tracks at Phoenix and Homestead already have both announced sellout crowds for the final two races of the season.

Yes, TV ratings are down. In this day and age of so many choices on cable and Internet streaming services, live sports ratings as a whole are not what they used to be, outside of, maybe, the NFL? The fact that the final two races of the season are sold out means that, for now at least, the current Chase format is drumming up the kind of season-ending interest that NASCAR chairman and CEO Brian France intended when he initiated it prior to last season.

What happened to Team Penske?

Heading into Martinsville, it looked like both Team Penske drivers (Logano and Brad Keselowski) were in good shape to advance out of the Eliminator Round of the Chase and into the Championship 4. But now Team Penske suddenly is in danger of going from possibly making up half the field running for the title at Homestead to having no representation at all.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

What happened?

Well, exactly what happened depends on who you talk to. But this is fact: Whether it was a broken tie rod (as Keselowski has suggested) or Keselowski simply wrecked Kenseth (as Kenseth has suggested), it all changed dramatically for Team Penske when BK and Kenseth got together at Martinsville. It ruined both of their days, but more importantly it appeared to be the proverbial straw that broke the usually mild-mannered Kenseth's back, prompting him to take out Logano later on while Logano was leading the race. (Did we mention Kenseth was nine laps down at the time?)

Now Logano, winner of a series-high six races on the season, is in eighth place in the current Chase standings, 63 points out of fourth, meaning he can advance only by winning at Phoenix. Keselowski is in sixth, a challenging 19 points out of fourth, meaning he likely needs to win too. They both can't win, and it's highly likely neither will.

Why does Harvick "own" Phoenix? 

Listening to Harvick's fellow competitors heading into Phoenix, you almost wonder why they don't just hand Harv the trophy now and dispense with the actual running of the race.

"I do not think it's a winnable race until Kevin Harvick gets beat. He's shown that he's certainly got a stranglehold on the Phoenix race track," said Kyle Busch bluntly when asked about anyone else's chances of winning at Phoenix following last Sunday's race at Texas.

And Kyle's older brother, Kurt, added: "We would be stupid not to run at Kevin Harvick setup. He's won almost every race there the last few years."

Harvick can talk all he wants about not "getting stale" and "taking a fresh approach," but don't kid yourself. There is a whole lot he's done there in the past that he can build upon, and he admitted as much when he also said: "As we go to Phoenix, we have to look at the things that we've done well. Obviously we've done a lot of good things. We look at the race tape and pay attention to the lines and braking, steering, throttle and all the things that you have access to and you try to mimic that immediately when you get on the race track."

Tweet of the week

It belongs to Denny Hamlin. Whether you agree with him or not, you have to admire his candor as he protested Kenseth's two-race suspension by NASCAR.

Unless otherwise noted, all information obtained firsthand.

Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as assisting in coverage of NASCAR for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.