Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans (3-5) have the opportunity to move into a tie for first place in the AFC South with a road win against the unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals (8-0) in the Week 10 Monday night matchup. The Texans have won five of the past six meetings with the Bengals both straight up and against the spread, and they are just a half-game behind the idle Indianapolis Colts, who are on a bye and just lost quarterback Andrew Luck for the next two to six weeks due to a lacerated kidney.

Point spread: The Bengals opened as 13-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.2-18.8 Bengals

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston has suffered through a bit of a disappointing season so far but still has a shot at the postseason playing in the AFC South. The Texans are coming off their bye week and should be refreshed with a new perspective on the rest of the season because of Indy’s struggles, opening the door for them to take the division with a strong finish.

Earning divisional wins in two of their last three games helps their cause, and Houston quarterback Brian Hoyer was under center for the Cleveland Browns when they upset Cincinnati 24-3 as six-point road underdogs last year in Week 10. Hoyer threw for 198 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, and another mistake-free performance for the Texans here could help them keep this game close and cover.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals have the best spread record in the league at 7-0-1 ATS, and this will be the second consecutive game that they are double-digit favorites. Their 31-10 rout of the Browns in the Week 9 Thursday night game as 13-point chalk was the first time in six games that they covered when favored by 10 points or more since 2006.

That is just one example of a trend Cincinnati has turned around during the team’s perfect start. While Houston has done well in previous meetings, this is a much better Bengals team both offensively and defensively. The Texans are also nowhere near the same squad as the one that defeated Cincy in the playoffs in consecutive years (2012 and 2013). The Bengals did end a five-game series losing streak in the most recent meeting last year as well, winning 22-13 at Houston as a 2.5-point road underdog.

Smart pick

The Texans are a better team than the Browns, who trailed Cincinnati just 14-10 at halftime last week until the Bengals broke it open after the intermission. Hoyer knows this team well and should be able to manage the game well enough to help Houston hang in there. Cincy will still be able to win, but covering double digits again is asking too much.

Betting trends

The Texans are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games after a win.

The Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Bengals.

The Bengals are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.