Week 10 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Midweek Betting Odds and Lines

The Green Bay Packers never lose to the Detroit Lions at home.

There are few things in sports that are guaranteed, but the Packers always find a way to beat the Lions at Lambeau Field.

Yes, always is a long time, and if we are being completely accurate, the above statement is false. The Lions last won at Green Bay in 1991, a year they actually made it as far as the NFC Championship Game. However, they have played at Green Bay every year since then, and they have lost each of those games.

While the Packers have lost two games in a row, it doesn't seem likely that the Lions will break that string this week. Detroit only has one victory this year, and it came at home in overtime to the Chicago Bears. The Packers may be stumbling after losing back-to-back games at Denver and Carolina, but they are still 6-2 and tied for first place in the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings.

But there's one thing in this game that does not point in the Packers' favor. They are out-sized 13-point favorites over the Lions, according to Odds Shark.

When the Packers are functioning on all cylinders, they can beat anyone at home by that kind of margin. However, they are not playing well on offense right now. The line is not giving Aaron Rodgers enough time to feel comfortable in the pocket, and the passing game is not in peak form.

Early in the year, Randall Cobb and James Jones were doing an outstanding job of making up for the absence of Jordy Nelson, who went down with an ACL injury in the preseason and will not play a down this year.

However, the Packers are feeling the impact of his absence now. Additionally, power running back Eddie Lacy is not having the year that was expected. He has a groin problem, and that is contributing to his lack of production. 

Lacy has rushed for 308 yards and is averaging 3.7 yards per carry. 

The Lions certainly have their share of problems, but they still have the pitch-and-catch combination of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. If they can combine for a big play or two early, it will make it difficult for the Packers' less-than-efficient offense to cover a 13-point spread.

Look for the Lions to keep it inside that number.

Game	Line	Over/Under	Selection
Buffalo at New York Jets	N.Y. Jets -2.5	42.5	Buffalo; Over
Jacksonville at Baltimore	Baltimore -5.5	48	Jacksonville: Over
Detroit at Green Bay	Green Bay -13	47.5	Detroit; Under
Miami at Philadelphia	Philadelphia -7	46.5	Philadelphia; Under
Cleveland at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh -4.5	41	Pittsburgh; Over
Chicago at St. Louis	St. Louis -7.5	42.5	St. Louis
Dallas at Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay -1	43	Tampa Bay; Under
Carolina at Tennessee	Carolina -5	43.5	Tennessee; Under
New Orleans at Washington	Even	50.5	Washington; Under
Minnesota at Oakland	No line	--	Oakland
Kansas City at Denver	Denver -7	41.5	Kansas City; Under
New England at New York Giants	New England -8	54.5	N.Y. Giants; Under
Arizona at Seattle	Seattle -3	44.5	Seattle; Under
Houston at Cincinnati	Cincinnati -12	47	Cincinnati; Over

Pats and Giants looking at 54.5-point total

The oddsmakers know they could be facing some trouble this week when the Giants host the Patriots at MetLife Stadium.

The 8.5-point line seems reasonable, considering the Patriots are 8-0 and the Giants have one of the most generous defenses in the league.

However, the Giants have weapons of their own, and they should be able to score on the Patriots. The oddsmakers see this game as a scoring fest, and they have set the total at 54.5 points. A large number of NFL games are in the 42-44 range, some will reach the high 40s, but the 54.5-point total seems more reminiscent of a college football game.

Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman seem capable of lighting up the scoreboard for the Patriots, while Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle are capable of doing the same for the Giants.

But pro football games rarely work out the way the public sees them developing. That's a huge total, and one period with no scoring or two or three drives that end in field goals could scuttle the over bettors.

Tom Coughlin's defense gave up seven TD passes to Drew Brees in Week 8, and he can't abide that kind of defensive performance again. The Giants are going to do everything they can to keep the clock moving and keep the Patriots from running away.

This game will be tighter than everyone thinks, and the 54.5-point total will not be threatened. This is an under play for the sharp handicapper.

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Rams want to unleash Gurley vs. Bears

Many fans will look at the result from the Week 9 Monday night game and think the Bears are an improving team since they beat the San Diego Chargers on the road 22-19.

They would be right, because the Bears are much better under head coach John Fox than they were either of the last two years under Marc Trestman. However, a closer look at that Monday night game reveals that the Bears made big mistakes early in the game and then took advantage of the injured Chargers.

While they are improving, the Bears are not a good team. The St. Louis Rams are getting there.

They have a bone-crunching defense and an improving offense led by rookie running back Todd Gurley (664 rushing yards in six games), and the Rams begin the second half of the season with a 4-4 record. They have hopes of getting into playoff contention, and if they are going to do it, they have to beat the 3-5 Bears.

The Rams have won three of their first four home games, and they handled the Browns and 49ers easily in their last two home games.

We expect them to get the best of Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears and cover the 7.5-point spread.