Why a Healthy Sammy Watkins Makes the Bills Legitimate AFC Playoff Contenders

In 1997, then-New York Jets wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson co-wrote a book titled Just Give Me The Damn Ball!. On the cover, he appears in the classic Superman pose, pushing aside his tie and jacket while ripping open a dress shirt to reveal the Jets logo.

At the time, Johnson was beginning only his second season after being the first overall pick in 1996. As a rookie, he had a fine entrance into the NFL, catching 63 passes for 844 yards with eight touchdowns. But Johnson wasn’t a firmly established veteran yet, so putting his face on that cover and under those words raised eyebrows.

Fast-forward 18 years, and Buffalo Bills receiver Sammy Watkins recently became the new Johnson. A much tamer version, of course, without the book and the bold words that screamed when printed in all caps. The aim of what he said in October, though, was the same.

He wanted the damn ball.

“When I have one-on-one coverage, go to me,” he told Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News just prior to a Week 6 game when Watkins returned from a calf issue. He finished with four receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown before leaving early with another injury, this time a sprained ankle.

“I don’t care what’s going on over there,” he continued while specifically requesting 10 targets per game. “When I get one on one, just target me.”

The wide receiver position inherently breeds selfishness because of how little even marquee talents control their destinies. The fastest and most athletically gifted wideouts are still limited by their opportunities. And those opportunities lie at the mercy of a quarterback who needs to throw footballs in their direction often, and with accuracy.

Even if it wasn’t Watkins’ intention, publicly asking for more targets has the effect of one man placing a pedestal at his feet and then rising above everyone else. Most receivers have the same thoughts internally but keep them there.

When they become external, the receiver needs to show that with the right target volume, he can be the engine driving an offense. Or in Watkins’ case, he needs to be the missing link for a franchise that hasn’t tasted playoff football since 1999.

In Week 9, a finally healthy Watkins had his wish granted. His target total during a win over the Miami Dolphins didn’t meet his required weekly quota of 10. Which mattered so very little during a game when Watkins backed up his words with actions, and showed that, yes, with the right target diet he can make sure his team is still playing football in January.

As NFL.com’s Matt Harmon noted, Watkins didn’t just get the majority of his team’s targets. He was given nearly all of them.

The Bills had two 100-plus-yard rushers, and they chose to beat the Dolphins primarily while leaning on that strength.

But in a development that surprises no one, it seems a wide receiver who was worthy of being drafted fourth overall in 2014 and trading two other picks to obtain deserves to be fed footballs.

Watkins talked, and Greg Roman listened. The Bills offensive coordinator dialed up only 12 pass attempts during a 33-17 win over the Dolphins. Of those, eight sailed toward Watkins.

He caught them all, which resulted in a rare set of numbers from that afternoon. Watkins didn’t just lead the Bills passing offense. He was the Bills passing offense.

Please note how many zeros are below.

Receiver	Targets	Receptions	Yards
Sammy Watkins	8	8	168
Robert Woods	1	0	0
Chris Hogan	0	0	0

A Bills wide receiver not named Sammy Watkins was targeted only once. Meanwhile, Watkins found himself on the other end for 92.8 percent of quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s 181 passing yards. It was the highest single-game percentage of a team’s receiving yards since 1999, according to ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak.

That absurdly high volume will come tumbling down to a more reasonable level. But a dramatic spike in usage may have been bubbling for some time, and Roman was just unable to lean on his oft-injured new toy.

Watkins played the first half in Week 6, and sprained his ankle on a 22-yard touchdown catch with 17 seconds remaining in the second quarter. Over those two quarters, the Bills had drawn up 10 passes targeted at wide receivers, and half of them went to Watkins.

He’s missed three games, with the combination of brutal luck and a body that perhaps doesn’t enjoy the rigors of football leading to frustration. Honesty isn’t a problem for Watkins, and back in September, he told WKBW’s Joe Buscaglia his fragile relationship with the injury gods above has made life difficult in his second season.

But consider what Watkins has done despite limited snaps, and injuries that are still barking with each step.

Due to a nagging ankle problem, he was at less than full health while exploding against the Dolphins. The same injury that had him listed as questionable prior to kickoff is now limiting the 22-year-old in practice as his Bills prepare for the New York Jets Thursday night.

He’s appeared in three full games then, having also lasted only 12 snaps during the Bills’ first game against Miami in Week 3. Yet his five receptions on balls traveling 20-plus yards through the air downfield are still only marginally behind a list of other rather talented receivers.

Receiver	Snaps	Targets	+20 yard catches
DeAndre Hopkins	618	111	8
Allen Hurns	510	56	8
A.J. Green	506	68	6
Calvin Johnson	503	74	6
Emmanuel Sanders	485	78	5
Sammy Watkins	204	25	5

The math there is staggering, especially when Watkins is put next to the Texans’ DeAndre Hopkins. He’s 414 snaps and 86 targets behind Hopkins. Which means the gap of three in the 20-plus-yard reception column is exceedingly tiny, and it reflects Watkins’ ability to create nearly instant separation with his burst off the line of scrimmage.

His acceleration is jarring for opposing cornerbacks, just as we saw Sunday, when the Dolphins' Brent Grimes was often reduced to flailing.

Late in the third quarter, Buffalo was clinging to a five-point lead. Taylor lined up just inside Dolphins territory, and he faced a daunting hole: The Bills had to convert on a 3rd-and-14.

Taylor stood in the shotgun, surveying the coverage staring down his three-receiver set. He identified that Watkins was isolated one-on-one against Grimes. And as we know from his public grumbling, Watkins kindly requests the football please when he has only one man to beat.

Grimes was playing tight, offering only about a three-yard buffer while looking to disrupt the timing on any downfield route. That meant Watkins had to minimize contact, and then pin the throttle to leave Grimes in his rear-view.

He accomplished the first step with a jump stop, followed by a quick head fake. The rapid succession of movement left Grimes leaning slightly to his right, and a fleeting second is the only opening Watkins needed.

He geared up and sprinted to the outside. Grimes was able to make only passing contact by reaching with his left arm. Watkins had created a free run deep into the secondary, and as Taylor’s throw went airborne, he was a full yard ahead of Grimes.

When it came down, that gap had grown, leaving Grimes to do little more than sprawl in desperation.

Credit: NFL GamePass

Grimes is a three-time Pro Bowler, most recently heading to Hawaii in 2014, a season when he allowed an 84.8 passer rating in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s not a premier cornerback, but Grimes has often played only a rung or two below that level throughout his career.

And he was roasted repeatedly by Watkins on Sunday, allowing a 63-yard catch and overall 143 yards in coverage, again per PFF.

Watkins demonstrated why he’s a critical cog in the Bills’ playoff push, just as the former Clemson standout did throughout a rookie season that ended just shy of 1,000 receiving yards. He’ll be leaned on even more with fellow wide receiver Percy Harvin on injured reserve and running back LeSean McCoy also chronically suffering from injury-itis (he’s missed two games and was limited in practice Tuesday).

The 4-4 Bills are currently seventh in the AFC, one spot away from ending a postseason drought. Eight games remain in their season, and there are three other teams with four or five wins to grapple with for two wild-card playoff slots.

If Watkins is somehow blessed with the gift of health, he has the ability to carry his team into the playoffs. Just give him the damn ball.