Falcons vs. 49ers: What's the Game Plan for San Francisco?
The San Francisco 49ers' tumultuous 2015 season continues as the franchise prepares for a Week 9 contest at home versus the 6-2 Atlanta Falcons at Levi's Stadium.
San Francisco will not be starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick, which marks the first time since 2012 the signal-caller has not started a regular-season game for the 49ers. Instead, the 49ers will roll out quarterback Blaine Gabbert in his first start for San Francisco.
This changes the 49ers' game plan on offense—a unit that ranks last in the NFL with 109 points for and 2,258 all-purpose yards.
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The 49ers will also have to contend with a Falcons offense ranking third in the league with an average of 32 points per game, per B/R Insights.
On paper, San Francisco is set up for yet another blowout. The 49ers have scored seven or fewer points in four of their six losses. And their defense hasn't been able to hold the line long enough to keep the team in the game in later quarters.
Can San Francisco figure out a way to come away with a victory in Week 9?
Offensive Game Plan
Perhaps the biggest aspect leading into the 49ers' matchup versus the Falcons is the benching of Kaepernick.
Head coach Jim Tomsula was quick to point out, via the team's website, San Francisco's offensive woes were not entirely on the shoulders of its No. 1 quarterback.
"I felt like this was the direction we needed to go," Tomsula said. "In no way is 2-6 all on Colin Kaepernick."
Tomsula noted that Kaepernick needed a break from what has been a lackluster season and the quarterback needed "a breather" after eight mostly unimpressive efforts. Kaepernick, via Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News, was quick to disagree with the head coach's assessments, though.
Regardless, the 49ers will roll out Gabbert in an attempt to invigorate their offense in Week 9.
Offensive coordinator Geep Chryst noted Gabbert's abilities as being similar to those of former 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area:
"When we got Blaine on board here, there were some similarities to what we felt Alex Smith went through. Alex came here, was very young and played, had to slug out a lot of tough situations. And we felt like Blaine had all this talent, and as a young player, maybe a change of scenery would be good for him.
"
So how will this influence Chryst's offensive game plan?
Smith's best efforts came in high-percentage plays in which he would avoid potential turnovers and mistakes. With No. 1 receiving threat Anquan Boldin listed as questionable with a hamstring injury and tight end Vernon Davis no longer on the roster, Gabbert will look to get other targets such as wide receivers Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson involved as frequently as possible.
Atlanta is vulnerable against the passing game and has given up 2,096 yards through the air—24th in the league.
Additionally, the 49ers will have to establish some sort of ground game and will likely have to do so without the offensive prowess of starting running back Carlos Hyde (foot), who is listed as doubtful for the contest.
San Francisco signed running backs Shaun Draughn and Pierre Thomas prior to the game. So look for the 49ers to get some sort of rushing attack working with these two leading the way.
Atlanta's run defense ranks No. 1 in the league with an average of just 78 yards allowed per game, as indicated by the B/R insights graph below.
But the biggest X-factor for any sort of 49ers offensive success will be their offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, San Francisco grades out with a minus-46.7 run-blocking mark—the worst in the league.
This particular matchup is a Falcons strength versus a 49ers weakness. And signs don't point in San Francisco's favor.
| Grade | -77.1 | -23.2 | 2.6 | -12.2 | -46.7 | 2.4 |
| NFL Rank | 32 | 32 | 20 | 16 | 32 | 8 |
According to 49ers radio color commentator Tim Ryan, who broke down the upcoming contest on KNBR 680, San Francisco will need to be physical at the point of attack and win the battle in the trenches.
Yet the 49ers haven't exactly been able to establish this sort of physicality over eight weeks this season and have regularly been overmatched at the line of scrimmage. And being without their leading rusher does not bode well for the 49ers' offensive prospects on the ground.
Defensive Game Plan
A similar concern exists on the defensive side of the ball.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is completing 67 percent of his passes on the season and owns a 92.3 passer rating on the season.
Atlanta is also doing a commendable job protecting the quarterback. Ryan has been sacked just 15 times on the season, and the 49ers have struggled generating much pressure with just 14 sacks on the season.
Wide receiver Julio Jones, as pointed out by safety Eric Reid during his weekly appearance on KNBR 680, remains the primary threat within the Falcons offense. Jones has a whopping 892 yards on 70 receptions and six touchdowns.
And the statistics don't match up in San Francisco's favor.
Per B/R Insights, the Falcons own the seventh-best passing offense, averaging 291 yards through the air per game. On the other hand, the 49ers are dead last in the NFL with an average of 315 yards allowed through the air.
This is bad enough for San Francisco's defense. And it gets worse.
According to PFF, Atlanta boasts the best run-blocking marks on the season with a plus-25.5 grade. This is a primary reason why running back Devonta Freeman has 709 total yards on the ground and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Given the threat of the Falcons' aerial attack, the 49ers can't afford to load the box in an attempt to take away Atlanta's strong ground game. This puts increased pressure on San Francisco's front seven and forces run-stoppers Glenn Dorsey, Quinton Dial and Ian Williams to bring their A-game during the contest.
San Francisco is boasting a respectable plus-10.1 PFF grade against the run, but will it be enough?
Key Players and Matchups
Stopping Atlanta's vaunted offense will be the primary X-factor during this Week 9 bout. And the 49ers defense will have to play mistake-free football to have any sort of chance in limiting what Ryan and Co. can do on that side of the ball.
Linebacker NaVorro Bowman is the 49ers' top run-stopper with a plus-6.7 PFF grade. So look for him to be an impact player if Freeman is able to break through San Francisco's first line of defense.
If the 49ers' run defense can hold its own, the next priority will be applying pressure on Ryan in order to prevent the quarterback from hitting vaunted targets like Jones. Right guard Chris Chester is the lowest-ranked lineman per PFF with a minus-4.4 grade on the season. So look for linebacker Aaron Lynch to try to exploit this matchup wherever possible.
On the flip side, the Falcons haven't been able to bring much pressure against opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta's pass rush has generated just 10 sacks on the season. But San Francisco's offensive line, primarily on the right side, has been more than permeable so far.
Defensive end Vic Beasley, who has two sacks on the year, will frequently match up against right tackle Erik Pears—a matchup likely to determine just how much pressure Gabbert will experience.
And Gabbert is another key player to note on Sunday. Given the O-line issues this season, will Gabbert's pocket poise be any better than Kaepernick's? With the 49ers struggling to move the ball on the ground this season, Gabbert's ability to effectively deliver the ball will be paramount in ensuring any sort of offensive prowess.
Gabbert's efforts in the red zone, should the 49ers get there in Week 9, will also be a critical element. The 49ers are converting on just 44 percent of their red-zone trips, per B/R Insights, while Atlanta has a 74 percent conversion rate in this same category.
Prediction
On paper, the Falcons appear more than just likable favorites in this Week 9 game. Atlanta's offense ranks toward the top in nearly every major category. And the 49ers defense, given how frequently the unit has been on the field, doesn't appear capable of staving off an elongated attack.
If the 49ers are to stand a chance during this contest, the offense will have to be able to maintain some sort of continuity—an element largely problematic over San Francisco's first eight contests this season.
Moving the ball through the air may be the only chance the 49ers have to do this given the Falcons' issues with their pass defense.
Still, this may not be enough even if San Francisco is able to establish a number of elongated drives.
Atlanta has far too many weapons with which the 49ers have to contend. Unfortunately for San Francisco, this contest seems far too stacked in Atlanta's favor.
The Falcons are poised to hand the 49ers yet another blowout loss, and a score of 30-9 seems about right as Tomsula's team continues to endure a forgettable season in 2015.
All statistics, injury reports, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a Featured Columnist covering the San Francisco 49ers for Bleacher Report. Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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