5 Bold Predictions for College Football Week 10
College football coaches love to talk about having a “November to remember,” and this November should certainly be unforgettable in the college gridiron ranks.
Following Toledo’s loss to Northern Illinois, we begin the finishing stretch of the 2015 season with 10 undefeated teams, all of which reside inside the top 14 of the new College Football Playoff Top 25.
Through attrition and scheduled matchups, we’ll certainly finish the month with far fewer than 10 unbeatens.
The fun begins Saturday. Multiple unbeaten teams including Clemson, LSU and TCU face serious challenges to their perfect seasons and claims on College Football Playoff berths.
Here are five bold predictions about how the week will unfold, affecting the playoff picture along with it.
Alabama Will Hold Off LSU
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In today’s pass-happy college football universe, you can always count on at least one thing: When No. 4 Alabama and No. 2 LSU meet, the style will be smashmouth, and points and yards will be at a premium.
The SEC West rivals don’t like each other, and the games always matter in the SEC and national pictures, which makes them a compelling annual throwback.
This year will be no different. Both Alabama and LSU are paced by physical defenses and bruising, powerful tailbacks. Alabama junior Derrick Henry has taken full advantage of his time as the Crimson Tide’s featured back, rushing for 1,044 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, LSU sophomore Leonard Fournette has emerged as the nation’s best back and best player, rushing for 1,352 yards and 15 touchdowns. He’s a leading Heisman Trophy candidate. Fournette averages 193.1 yards per game and is extremely difficult to stop. He’s rushed for at least 150 yards in all seven games this season.
There’s no denying that Fournette will get his, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he rushed for 150 again on Saturday. But Alabama’s defense will be the toughest test that LSU sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris has faced thus far this season.
The Tide will force Harris into a key turnover, which will be the difference in a hard-fought SEC West victory.
Arkansas Will Upset Ole Miss
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Arkansas and Bret Bielema got off to an ugly start in what was supposed to be a breakthrough season. The Razorbacks limped to a 1-3 record with a home loss to Toledo, and hopes of a second consecutive bowl trip, much less SEC West contention, faded.
But Bielema’s bunch has quietly gotten back on track, winning three of their last four games to pull to 4-4 and back into postseason contention.
They were also competitive in a 27-14 loss at Alabama, leading the Crimson Tide into the second half before fading down the stretch. Arkansas has a tough finishing slate (at Ole Miss, at LSU, home vs. Mississippi State and Missouri), which makes Saturday’s trip to Oxford vital.
The Razorbacks shut out Ole Miss a year ago, and the No. 18 Rebels are playing their 10th game in as many weeks without a bye. They’ll be a little bit tired, which is just what Arkansas needs to shut down an offense that averages 39 points per game.
Bielema and Co. will pull the upset and give their postseason hopes a major shot in the arm.
Clemson Will Roll Florida State
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Clemson achieved a program milestone when the College Football Playoff selection committee ranked the Tigers No. 1 in its first Top 25 of the season Tuesday night. It marked the first time Clemson has been ranked No. 1 in a national poll since the end of its 1981 national championship season.
Of course, Dabo Swinney’s bunch is far from satisfied. Only 13-0 in early December will likely be good enough to make the four-team playoff field, and the biggest step looms Saturday.
No. 16 Florida State has been a nemesis for the Tigers recently. Since Clemson won its last ACC title in 2011, FSU has won the teams’ last three meetings, including an embarrassing 51-14 beatdown in Memorial Stadium two years ago.
This appears to be Clemson’s year for a breakthrough. They’re keyed by a potent offense led by sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has passed for 1,936 yards with 20 touchdowns against seven interceptions. The Tigers have scored 50-plus points in back-to-back games and are hitting their stride at the right time.
Meanwhile, Florida State is a 10.5-point underdog, according to Odds Shark, and the Seminoles are starting to feel the effects of their massive 2014 graduation and NFL draft losses.
Coach Jimbo Fisher hasn’t committed to Sean Maguire or Everett Golson as his quarterback, as noted by Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel, and star tailback Dalvin Cook might not be 100 percent while recovering from knee and hamstring injuries.
FSU receiver Travis Rudolph told Sonnone he has confidence in both quarterbacks, according to Sonnone: “It’s the same as every other week, as knowing the quarterback. It doesn’t matter who the quarterback is, we trust in our system and our quarterbacks. They know the reads, they know the offense and they’ve got a connection with us.”
In addition, starting linebacker Tyrell Lyons (torn ACL) and starting nickelback Trey Marshall (torn biceps) are out for the year, and starting safety Nate Andrews has been limited by a knee injury. In short, the Seminoles aren’t healthy and are inexperienced on defense, which spells serious trouble against Clemson’s offense.
The Tigers will win by at least two touchdowns and end their FSU frustration in a big way.
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TCU's Trevone Boykin Will Torch Oklahoma State's Defense
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Oklahoma State had an up-and-down season on the way to an 8-5 record in 2014, but the Cowboys have taken a step forward this fall with a more mature roster.
Mike Gundy’s team has already matched its win total from last year, but the No. 14 ‘Pokes have a brutal closing stretch that includes fellow Big 12 unbeatens Baylor and TCU as well as rival Oklahoma.
That stretch starts Saturday when No. 8 TCU visits.
The Horned Frogs defense has struggled at times, allowing 24.5 points per game (No. 53 nationally), but a potent offense led by senior quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin has always been there to bail them out. Boykin has been outstanding, throwing for 2,927 yards with 28 touchdowns against five interceptions and adding 524 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
TCU averages 48 points per game, No. 2 nationally, and Boykin has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his last six games. He has surpassed 450 yards twice (against Texas Tech and SMU) and will have another pliable target in Oklahoma State’s pass defense, which allows 218.5 passing yards per game, No. 62 nationally.
Boykin will throw for 450 yards again, hooking up with star receiver Josh Doctson repeatedly, and the Horned Frogs will roll to 9-0.
Washington WIll Upend Utah
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Utah was one of the best stories of the first half of the 2015 season. The Utes built on 2014’s nine-win finish and rose as high as No. 3 in the Associated Press Top 25 before a 42-24 loss at Southern California brought Kyle Whittingham’s team crashing back to earth.
The No. 12 Utes remain in excellent position in the Pac-12 South and are on the fringes of the College Football Playoff chase but have a tough test ahead at Washington.
Chris Petersen’s team has been up-and-down but appears to be improving. The Huskies whipped Arizona last week, 49-3, and lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense, allowing a stingy 16.9 points per game. Utah senior tailback Devontae Booker has rushed for 966 yards and 10 touchdowns and is one of the nation’s top backs, but if Washington can slow him down, the Utes passing attack isn’t scary.
The Huskies went into Los Angeles and dealt the USC Trojans a 17-12 defeat in what turned out to be Steve Sarkisian’s final game as head coach. On the shores of Lake Washington, they’ll hand the Pac-12 South another key loss and show that Petersen has them moving in the right direction.
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