Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

It may have something to do with the quality of the team playing in it, but Levi's Stadium is providing no home-field advantage for the San Francisco 49ers, who are only 6-6 straight up and 4-8 against the spread in their new digs. San Francisco will try out a new starting quarterback in its new home when it hosts the former division rival Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as three-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.9-17.7 Falcons

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons are coming off a disappointing divisional loss at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, 23-20 in overtime. Atlanta fell down 20-3 in the third quarter but rallied to tie the score on a Matt Ryan-to-Julio Jones touchdown hookup with 20 seconds to go. It then gave up a field goal in overtime and could not respond.

The Falcons outgained the Buccaneers 496-290 on the day and won time of possession by nine minutes, but four Atlanta turnovers, three on the Tampa side of the 50, led directly to 20 Bucs points. The Falcons also had to settle for two short field goals.

Atlanta started 5-0 this season but has hit some turbulence recently, going 1-2 SU over its last three games and 0-4 ATS over its last four. If they can improve their performance in the red zone and stop turning the ball over (nine turnovers in the last three games), the Falcons will start winning and covering again.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The 49ers, unfortunately, are a mess right now after last week's 27-6 loss at St. Louis, which followed a 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 7. Now, in an effort to jump-start the offense, San Francisco is making a change at quarterback, benching the mercurial Colin Kaepernick and replacing him, for the moment, with Blaine Gabbert.

The Niners gave up two long touchdowns against the St. Louis Rams last week; take those plays out, and that's a much closer game.

Gabbert hasn't played much over the last couple of seasons, but at least he's not a rookie, having started 27 games for a bad Jacksonville Jaguars team a few seasons back. And he has to be more accurate than Kaepernick, doesn't he?

Smart pick

Few bettors in their right minds would consider risking money on San Francisco at the moment. The Niners just changed quarterbacks to a guy with a career completion rate of 53 percent and traded one of their top offensive threats in tight end Vernon Davis, and their injury list runs off the page. Meanwhile, if Atlanta gets its red-zone act together, it could turn this one ugly. Take the Falcons, minus the points.

Betting trends

• The 49ers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home before the bye.
• The total has gone under in 12 of the Falcons' last 14 games in Week 9.
• The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road against the 49ers.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.