Glover Teixeira vs. Patrick Cummins: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The UFC returns to your television screens this weekend, and all eyes are on the third matchup between Vitor Belfort and Dan Henderson at UFC Fight Night 77. Going a bit unnoticed, however, is a Top 10 light heavyweight tilt.
The co-main event between No. 4-ranked Glover Teixeira and No. 9-ranked Patrick Cummins is arguably the most significant and meaningful bout on the card.
After dropping back-to-back fights against Jon Jones and Phil Davis, Teixeira bounced back in August with a submission win over Ovince Saint Preux in Nashville, Tennessee. The Brazilian gets to defend his home turf this weekend against his American opponent.
Cummins returned to action in August and upended Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante by third-round TKO. This will be his second consecutive trip to Brazil, so the hostile territory should not come into play.
How do these two size up against one another, and who will come out on top? Let's take a look at the head-to-toe breakdown for Saturday's co-main event.
Striking
1 of 5
Statistics can often reveal discrepancies between fighters, but that is not the case in the stand-up department.
The FightMetric numbers are particularly misleading for this matchup. Cummins has the edge, statistically, over Teixeira in each of the four noted areas of striking: significant strikes per minute, striking accuracy, strikes absorbed per minute and defense.
Do not be fooled or swayed by these numbers. Teixeira is the better boxer. Cummins simply racks up the numbers on the mat with his ground-and-pound.
Teixeira has powerful hands, and Cummins does not have Floyd Mayweather-like defense. As a result, Teixeira has a very good chance to hurt Cummins and end the fight. The longer this fight stays on the feet, the bigger those chances grow. This is not where Cummins wants to be on Saturday.
Edge: Teixeira
Grappling
2 of 5
The statistics for grappling do accurately reflect where these two fighters stand.
Cummins is simply a better wrestler than Teixeira, and we all know that by now. But instead of wasting time discussing Cummins' amateur accolades at Penn State, we should focus on Teixeira's underrated wrestling.
Teixeira is a much better wrestler than many give him credit for, both offensively and defensively. His defensive wrestling will be vital against Cummins, but his offensive efforts could have a much larger effect on the outcome of the fight if he's able to attempt and complete a takedown. It will almost assuredly throw Cummins off his game plan and give him much more to think about.
Cummins is the better grappler, but Teixeira has some quality skills that could rear their head if Cummins isn't alert.
Edge: Cummins
Submissions
3 of 5
When the fight hits the canvas, Cummins is much more of a control fighter. He does have two submissions to his credit, but they are not against anyone notable. At this level, he relies on his top control and ground-and-pound.
Teixeira is more versatile, and his submission game is tight.
The Brazilian won't wow anyone with flashy submissions or risky attempts, but when he sinks in a submission, you can bet good money that he has it locked up. His three UFC submissions are all chokes (an arm triangle, a guillotine and a rear-naked choke), but they show that he has a variety of them in his arsenal.
Teixeira has the better chance to end this fight with a tap.
Edge: Teixeira
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Cummins' X-Factor: Striking Defense
Teixeira has pop in his punches, and Cummins has certainly been rocked inside the cage before. In fact, both of his prior meetings with top-tier talent have landed him on the wrong end of a knockout.
No one should expect a big leap in the evolution of Cummins' striking. He's still learning that aspect of MMA. He wants to fight inside, but when he makes his move, that is where true danger lies. Cummins needs to protect his chin when he closes the distance.
Teixeira's X-Factor: Distance
One of the keys for Teixeira this weekend will be the distance he fights at. If Teixeira uses his jab and boxing to keep Cummins on the outside, it will make his takedown attempts easier to detect and defend.
If he is too aggressive or allows Cummins inside too often, the takedown will be inevitable.
The former title contender should be measured in his approach so as not to give Cummins any easy opportunities to put him on his back.
Prediction
5 of 5
I like Teixeira's experience in this fight, and I would not be surprised to see this end inside of three minutes with an emphatic knockout. But one fight continues to stick out in my mind that forces me in the other direction, and that is Teixeira's loss to Phil Davis.
Davis was also a strong wrestler who was not a great striker, although very lengthy, and he didn't have much of an issue with Teixeira. Every fight is different, but Davis was successful on nine takedown attempts at UFC 179. There is no reason Cummins cannot follow suit.
If this were a five-round contest, I might lean more toward Teixeira being able to catch Cummins as he tires, but in a three-round affair, Cummins does not have to hold anything back. Expect a healthy dose of wrestling and control as Cummins creeps along to a clear decision.
Prediction: Cummins defeats Teixeira by unanimous decision
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