The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 77: Henderson vs. Belfort III
Legendary fighters Dan Henderson and Vitor Belfort meet for a third and hopefully final time this Saturday night as the UFC returns to Fox Sports 1. This is essentially as good as a Fight Night on the UFC's flagship network can get, featuring a main event with name value and a vast array of rising talent on the undercard.
While neither fighter in the main event is long for the sport, or at least should be, the rest of the card is stacked with interesting fights. In the co-main event, Glover Teixeira (36) takes on Patrick Cummins (34) in a must-win fight for both men—age is setting in and both are running out of time—that should also be quite entertaining.
The real treat of the card, however, is the young talent. Thomas Almeida takes on Anthony Birchak in a bantamweight bout that promises exceptional, delectable violence and could even be a contender for Fight of the Year. Rashid Magomedov and Gilbert Burns meet in a matchup of two of the best up-and-comers at 155 pounds, while Alex Oliveira and Corey Anderson are bright prospects in their divisions.
On the undercard, Chas Skelly takes on Kevin Souza in a fantastic featherweight matchup, while Gleison Tibau draws Abel Trujillo. In addition, veterans Clay Guida and Thiago Tavares battle to stay relevant in a stacked featherweight division. Even the Fight Pass prelims carry some interest with a great bantamweight scrap between Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Bantamweights
Matheus Nicolau Pereira (10-1-1; 0-0 UFC) vs. Bruno "Korea" Rodrigues (4-0; 0-0 UFC)
Two The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 alumni make their formal UFC debuts in the evening's curtain-jerker. Nicolau is only 22 years old and is a product of the famed Nova Uniao team, while the lesser-known Korea is only 24. Both are exceptionally talented young fighters with bright futures ahead of them.
Nicolau has the makings of a special striker. He works behind a stiff jab, takes sharp angles and throws vicious low kicks, with particular skill on the counter. His takedown defense is strong, and his grappling game is more than competent.
Korea is dangerous everywhere, with a flashy, high-output striking repertoire but sketchy fundamentals and an opportunistic array of back-takes and transitional submissions on the mat.
This is a tight matchup, but Nicolau's elite team, consistent improvement and ability to fall back on a strong wrestling game should be the difference. The pick is Nicolau by decision.
Bantamweights
Pedro Munhoz (12-1; 2-1 UFC) vs. Jimmie Rivera (17-1; 1-0 UFC)
Talented prospect Pedro Munhoz returns to action after more than a year on the sidelines due to a disputed but never officially announced suspension for elevated testosterone levels. He defeated Jerrod Sanders in his last outing and Matt Hobar before that in the first round, after dropping his debut to Raphael Assuncao. Rivera debuted with an impressive knockout of Marcus Brimage in July.
Munhoz is well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. A smooth and improving striker, he puts together clean combinations punctuated by hard round kicks at all levels. He's competent with his takedowns, and his strong defensive wrestling blends seamlessly with the black belt's lethal grappling repertoire.
Striking is Rivera's wheelhouse, and he strings together nice punching combinations with a bit of pop behind them. His takedown defense is excellent, and he can grind away in the clinch to eat up time.
If this plays out entirely on the feet, Rivera likely has a small edge, but there's no reason to think Munhoz will be content to strike. The Brazilian is a killer on the mat, and if the fight goes there, it's his to lose. The pick is Munhoz by submission in the second round.
Welterweights
Viscardi Andrade (17-6; 1-1 UFC) vs. Gasan Umalatov (15-4-1; 1-2 UFC)
Two bottom-tier welterweights meet in the card's final bout on Fight Pass. Andrade, a Brazilian, has been out of action since a decision loss to Nico Musoke in February 2014. Umalatov has lost two of his three UFC outings—the most recent a tight decision to Cathal Pendred—and will almost certainly be cut with another defeat.
The Brazilian is big, athletic and powerful. He relies on a potent overhand right that he wings early and often, but he is inefficient and limited at range. He is not a terribly technical wrestler, but from top position he passes smoothly and throws bombs. Umalatov can do a bit of everything, with a low-volume but powerful striking attack and decent wrestling.
This is not a good-looking fight on paper. The Russian is a better wrestler and should be able to at least keep up on the feet, so the pick is Umalatov by decision in a snoozer.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Featherweights
Chas Skelly (14-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Edimilson "Kevin" Souza (15-3; 3-0 UFC)
While it lacks name value, this is a crackerjack of a matchup. Skelly has won three in a row since his debut loss against blossoming star Mirsad Bektic; most recent, Skelly knocked out Jim Alers. Souza has likewise won three in a row, the last two by knockout. The winner will be on track for a Top 15 opponent and potentially a slot among the elite of a fast-rising division.
Skelly blends his wrestling and grappling games in interesting ways. He likes single-legs and trips, and when his opponents try to scramble to their feet, he excels at getting to the back in transition. While he's still a bit awkward on the feet, his striking has come along nicely, and he slings surprisingly powerful and well-placed punching combinations.
Souza is a pure puncher with a monstrous right hand. That right is the basis of his entire game. He throws it as a straight, an overhand and occasionally an uppercut, and he mixes it up to the head and the body. It's a gorgeous punch that he throws with outstanding speed and power, and when he follows with a left hook it's devastating. He can also defend takedowns but offers almost nothing else.
There are two likely outcomes here: Either Souza lands a bomb of a right hand on the hittable Skelly, or the American works a takedown, gets to Souza's back and sinks in the choke. The latter seems more likely, and the pick is Skelly by submission in the second round.
Featherweights
Thiago Tavares (19-6-1; 9-6-1 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (32-15; 12-9 UFC)
Veteran featherweights with a combined 37 UFC bouts between them meet in a solid matchup. Tavares has split a pair of fights since dropping to 145 pounds, choking out Robbie Peralta before falling victim to Brian Ortega. Guida rebounded from a drubbing at the hands of Dennis Bermudez with his own victory over Peralta in April.
The winner will stick around the fringes of the Top 15 in a stacked division.
Tavares is well-rounded and solid at everything, if not spectacular in any individual phase. He throws a consistent but rote one-two on the feet, wrestles well both offensively and defensively and is more than competent in every way on the mat. On the downside, he's hittable and doesn't take a good punch.
Guida is a grinder by trade. He complements relentless chains of takedowns and clinch control against the fence with long periods on top, and he can snag the occasional submission in transition as well. He packs surprising pop and good counterpunching on the feet and has made progress as a striker.
This is a razor-thin matchup, but it should come down to Tavares' ability to keep the fight on the feet. The Brazilian hasn't conceded a takedown since 2010, but Guida is a much more imposing wrestler than Tavares' recent opposition, and he also has the pop to hurt the hittable Tavares. The pick is Guida by decision.
Lightweights
Yan Cabral (12-1; 2-1 UFC) vs. Johnny Case (21-4; 3-0 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 alumnus Cabral takes on the American Case in an intriguing matchup of rising lightweights. Case has notched three victories since debuting; the most recent was a decision over Frank Trevino in June. Cabral has been out of action since last October, when he submitted Naoyuki Kotani at UFC 179. The winner will establish himself as one to watch in a deep and talented division.
Cabral is enormous at 5'11", and it's a miracle that he can even make 155. He's limited but powerful on the feet and uses his striking mostly as a bridge to his solid takedowns. On top, he's an absolute monster, with potent strikes, smooth passes and a diverse submission repertoire.
Case is even bigger than Cabral at 6'1", but his skills are much more diverse. He has developed into an excellent striker with a high-output arsenal of punch-kick combinations and routinely drops more than 15 strikes per minute. His surprisingly strong wrestling game complements those strikes, and from top position he has real power.
This is Case's fight to lose. He's a much better striker who throws substantially more volume, and his takedown defense should suffice to keep this on the feet. The pick is Case by decision.
Lightweights
Gleison Tibau (33-11; 16-9 UFC) vs. Abel Trujillo (12-6, 1 N/C; 3-2, 1 N/C UFC)
The veteran Tibau, one of the UFC's workhorses since 2006, returns to the Octagon for his 26th bout in the promotion. Coming off a loss against Tony Ferguson that snapped a three-fight winning streak, he draws the brick-fisted Abel Trujillo. The American is also coming off a loss against Ferguson after winning two in a row, both by knockout.
Tibau, a southpaw, has long relied on a stout mixture of wrestling and top-control grappling. His double-leg is explosive, well-timed and authoritatively finished, and he is difficult to shake off once he gets on top. He is also a solid striker with real power in his straight left and left kick, and it is dangerous to exchange with him in the pocket.
The American is a bowling ball of explosiveness and power. He moves constantly and then picks his spots to throw his weight forward into brutal punching combinations that can turn out the lights of anyone. Strong takedowns complement that striking repertoire, but he suffers from poor cardio and subpar takedown defense.
This is a strange fight to pick. Both fighters are vulnerable to their opponent's strength: Tibau's chin has been cracked numerous times in the recent past, and Trujillo has struggled to stay standing. Neither has the cardio to fight well into the third round.
While Trujillo will probably knock him down, Tibau has made his grinding approach work against better fighters than Trujillo. The pick is Tibau by decision.
Fabio Maldonado vs. Corey Anderson
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Light Heavyweights
Fabio Maldonado (22-8; 5-5 UFC) vs. Corey Anderson (6-1; 3-1 UFC)
The light heavyweight division is nearly devoid of rising talent, but The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Anderson is by far the best of a thin bunch. The 26-year-old former wrestler has won three of his four bouts in the UFC, rebounding from a loss to Gian Villante with a win over Jan Blachowicz in September.
Anderson steps up on short notice to replace Tom Lawlor against Fabio Maldonado. The Brazilian lost a decision to Quinton Jackson in April in a lackluster fight and before that had a win over Hans Stringer and a loss to Stipe Miocic at heavyweight.
The winner will be a Top 10 light heavyweight essentially by default, but this is a much bigger fight for Anderson than Maldonado, who has already hit his ceiling. If the American can snag a win here on short notice, bouts with the division's rapidly aging elite await.
Maldonado is a former professional boxer, and his hands still form the basis of his aggressive, forward-moving game. He works behind a crisp and consistent jab and then follows with relentless, quick-paced head-body combinations that sap the life and will from his opponents.
Despite his pudgy frame, Maldonado has great cardio, which his near-indescribable durability enhances. Opponents land shot after shot after shot, but they eventually tire, whereas Maldonado does not. He lacks one-punch knockout power, and his defense is almost nonexistent, but his approach is nonetheless difficult to deal with.
Aside from a willingness to slam home body punches while eating knees in the clinch, that is essentially the extent of Maldonado's game. He struggles to defend takedowns, and his offensive wrestling game is lackluster when he bothers to utilize it, which is infrequently. On the bottom, he relies on half guard and the deep half to both stand up and work sweeps.
Anderson is evolving rapidly. The former wrestler has found a home under the tutelage of Mark Henry, who is best known as Frankie Edgar's boxing coach, and the results and similarities show in his improving striking repertoire.
Smooth if somewhat rote combinations of punches and kicks form the basis of Anderson's striking game. He works at a quick pace, routinely throwing 15 or 20 strikes per minute, and mixes up his shots to the head and body. Constant movement and angles keep his opponents guessing. Defense is a problem; Anderson's head movement is basic and inconsistent, and he relies heavily on his length and distance to avoid shots.
As much as he has improved as a striker, Anderson's wheelhouse is still in the clinch and wrestling phases. He makes good use of his height (6'3") and leverage in the clinch, utilizing strong control and a consistent diet of knees and short punches.
While not a particularly authoritative finisher, he chains his takedowns nicely, preferring singles, doubles and trips. From top position, Anderson is a monster. His posture is outstanding, which allows him to drop ground strikes while working the occasional pass to a dominant position. As on the feet, the pace of his work on the mat is exceptional.
Betting Odds
Anderson -515, Maldonado +375
Prediction
The betting odds are wide, but with good reason: Anderson holds advantages in everything but a pure striking matchup, and even then the American's cardio gives him a good shot against Maldonado's relentless assault.
There's no reason to think Anderson will be content to strike, however, and that's where his massive advantages in wrestling and ground work come into play. He'll come out hot, landing combinations and working takedowns, and beat up the durable Maldonado for all three rounds. The pick is Anderson by dominant decision.
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Gilbert Burns vs. Rashid Magomedov
4 of 8
Lightweights
Gilbert Burns (10-0; 3-0 UFC) vs. Rashid Magomedov (18-1; 3-0 UFC)
Two of the UFC's most talented prospects meet in a fantastic lightweight battle. Burns, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and Blackzilians product, overcame a rough start to finish Alex Oliveira in the third round back in March to move to 3-0 in the UFC. Magomedov, a native of Dagestan, knocked out Elias Silverio last December for his third win inside the promotion.
The winner will have an inside track at the Top 15 in the most stacked division in the sport and will rightfully join the weight class' elite. Unless one fighter embarrasses himself, which is unlikely, even the loser will likely not be too hurt by a loss.
While Burns' background is in grappling, the Blackzilians have turned him into a well-rounded and dangerous fighter in every phase. He slings smooth, technical punch-kick combinations, maintains a tight guard and packs real power in his strikes. He's still learning, however, and he's is both hittable and a bit predictable on the feet.
Burns is a much better wrestler than you might expect. He shoots an explosive and technically proficient double-leg and mixes in slick hip tosses and trips from the clinch to complement his shot takedowns.
The ground is Burns' world. His passing game is fluid and world-class. His control is impeccable, and he packs vicious power in his ground strikes. Even more impressive are his seamless transitions between submission attempts and positional control. His instincts for when to give up on a submission and snag an opportune position and when to truly commit are outstanding, and there are few better in the sport.
Magomedov is a slick and exceptionally talented striker. He throws vicious, no-switch kicks with his lead leg without telegraphing, moving smoothly between the legs, body and head. He's an even better boxer and has a great feel for sneaking shots around, under and through his opponent's defense.
Counters are the heart of Magomedov's game. His back-stepping left hook is a thing of beauty; he loops a sneaky overhand right over his opponent's jab and even counters with kicks, which is an exceptionally rare skill in MMA. He moves well, takes clean angles and works at an outstanding pace, and he has a real claim to be one of the best strikers in a division full of them.
The other special aspect of the Russian's game is his skill in the transitions. He excels at punching his way into the clinch and takedown attempts and then sneaking in punches, kicks and knees on the breaks or as he stands up from the mat.
The rest of Magomedov's game is more than competent. His takedown defense is exquisite—he's conceded one in 11 attempts in his three UFC outings—and he can hit lovely body-lock trips and throws when the mood strikes. He's nothing special from top position but can control and land a few shots.
Betting Odds
Magomedov -160, Burns +140
Prediction
The betting odds seem roughly appropriate, if perhaps a bit generous toward Burns. As good as Burns' striking has become, Magomedov is still on a different level, and the Russian's takedown defense should serve to keep the fight mostly on the feet.
In that scenario, it's easy to favor Magomedov. He works at a quicker pace and is a much more organic, natural striker. While Burns has the power to hurt him and could absolutely find a submission on the mat, the more likely scenario involves Magomedov soundly outpointing the Brazilian on the feet.
The pick is Magomedov by decision.
Alex Oliveira vs. Piotr Hallmann
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Lightweights
Alex Oliveira (12-3-1, 1 N/C; 2-1 UFC) vs. Piotr Hallmann (15-4; 2-3 UFC)
Brazil's Oliveira takes his fourth UFC bout of 2015 against Poland's Hallmann. Oliveira put up a tough fight in a losing effort on short notice against Gilbert Burns in his debut and then manhandled K.J. Noons and Joe Merritt in May and June. Hallmann is riding a two-fight losing streak after dropping a decision to Tibau in which he tested positive for steroids and then suffered a cut stoppage against Magomed Mustafaev.
This is a well-matched fight despite the fact that Hallmann has lost two in a row, but the Pole needs a win here to stay in the promotion. For Oliveira, a victory would establish him as a reliable action fighter and potentially one on his way to the Top 15 in the weight class.
The Brazilian is a great athlete with plus speed and power packed into a long, rangy frame. He moves and cuts angles at distance and then leaps in with hard punching combinations. The right hand is his moneymaker, and he likes to lever-punch with it, tossing out a cross or overhand and then an uppercut when his opponent moves his hands to defend. His counters are sharp and getting sharper.
The rest of Oliveira's game is coming together. His lengthy frame gives him great leverage in the clinch, and he does an excellent job of controlling against the fence. While he consistently looks for trips and shot takedowns, he isn't technically proficient in that phase and relies too heavily on raw strength.
When he does secure a takedown, however, Oliveira goes to work. He excels at letting his opponent move once on the mat and then jumping onto the back the moment the opportunity presents itself. Otherwise, Oliveira is still a fairly novice grappler.
Hallmann is aggressive and well-rounded, and his durability and cardio make up for a lack of great athletic gifts. He's always moving forward and looks to plant head-body punching combinations and the occasional kick on his opponent before diving into the clinch or onto a takedown attempt.
While he's proficient on the feet, Hallmann is at his best in close quarters. He's grinding in the clinch and hits a nice arsenal of trips along with a steady diet of knees, and his chains of shot takedowns are relentless if not authoritative or exceptionally technical. His takedown defense is solid but not outstanding.
On the mat, Hallmann is a stifling top-control artist. He keeps his weight down, passes when possible and uses strong posture to feed his opponent a steady stream of punches and elbows. When he reaches a dominant position, the Pole has a nice arsenal of kimuras and setups for the rear-naked choke.
Pace and offensive output are the keys to Hallmann's approach in every phase: He simply doesn't stop attacking, and few can keep up with him.
Betting Odds
Oliveira -200, Hallmann +170
Prediction
This is a battle for the space of the cage. If Hallmann succeeds in pressing Oliveira against the fence where he can control in the clinch and work takedowns, the fight is probably his to lose. If the Brazilian succeeds in keeping the fight in the center of the Octagon, his greater speed and power should be the difference.
While this is closer to an even-money fight than the betting odds indicate, the latter scenario still seems more likely. Oliveira is a vastly superior athlete with great power and a movement-based game, and his own clinch game and takedown defense should be good enough to keep this standing. The pick is Oliveira by decision.
Thomas Almeida vs. Anthony Birchak
6 of 8
Bantamweights
Thomas Almeida (19-0; 3-0 UFC) vs. Anthony Birchak (12-2; 1-1 UFC)
Brazil's Thomas Almeida is one of the most promising prospects in all of MMA, and he is the next big thing in the bantamweight division. The undefeated 24-year-old has finished 18 of his 19 victories, and most recently he stopped Brad Pickett with a flying knee at UFC 189 in July.
Almeida draws another talented, young bantamweight in Anthony Birchak. The American was a top prospect for a long time but fell victim to an Ian Entwistle heel hook in his UFC debut. He rebounded with a devastating first-round knockout of Joe Soto in June.
This would be a huge win for Birchak, but the Brazilian is a big favorite. With a win here, Almeida would firmly vault himself into the Top 10 and show that he's ready to take on some of the division's elite.
Violence is Almeida's calling card. He's a striker by trade and an aggressive one with some of the best killer instinct in the sport and a shockingly high output of strikes. He works his way forward behind a steady diet of jabs and low kicks, and he is confident at range, but the pocket is his wheelhouse.
In the middle distances, Almeida slips, rolls and fires gorgeous punching combinations that move between the head and body. He throws a vicious liver shot and does a beautiful job of moving his opponent's hands and head around and then exploiting the defensive openings. Punches are his bread and butter, but he throws a mean overhand elbow as a counter to the jab, and his flying knee is a dangerous weapon.
If there's a problem with Almeida's game, it's defense. He's hittable in the early going before he gets his rhythm, and in general he's often there to be hit. The extent of this issue can be overstated, however; Almeida moves his head consistently and supplements that basic defense with parries and blocks. After the first several minutes of the fight, he tends to be much harder to hit.
The rest of Almeida's game seems to be solid but is somewhat unproven. He's competent in the clinch if not outstanding. His takedown defense has held up thus far, and if taken down he immediately looks to scramble back to his feet. He has yet to spend an extended period of time grappling, so that remains a question mark.
Like Almeida, the American is an exceptionally aggressive fighter. Size, power and explosiveness fuel his dangerous game, which he can use to finish both on the feet and on the mat.
A former wrestler, Birchak has grown into a competent striker. He likes to leap in with potent punching combinations that he punctuates with a vicious kick to the legs or body, and he mixes in the occasional standing elbow when his opponents slip into a defensive shell.
The clinch is Birchak's best area. He is beastly strong, and his 5'8" frame gives him great leverage on the inside. Trips and hip tosses are his preferred takedowns, and he consistently throws hard elbows and knees. He does an excellent job of punching his way inside and then exiting with hard shots.
While he isn't a tremendous grappler, Birchak's top game is competent. He can pass guard and find the occasional submission in transition, but when he postures he can throw absolute bombs.
Betting Odds
Almeida -440, Birchak +350
Prediction
This should be a violent and entertaining bloodbath. Both fighters are aggressive, dangerous and more than happy to mix it up on the feet with punches, elbows, knees and kicks. Birchak's wrestling might give him an edge should he choose to employ it, but Almeida's takedown defense should suffice to keep this standing—and so should Birchak's natural inclinations.
In that scenario, it's hard not to lean toward Almeida. Birchak is slightly more powerful, but the Brazilian is by far the more technical and accomplished striker, with tighter technique, better combinations and higher output. With that in mind, Birchak will probably tag Almeida more than once.
In a tremendous, back-and-forth Fight of the Night, the pick is Almeida by knockout in the third round.
Glover Teixeira vs. Patrick Cummins
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Light Heavyweights
Glover Teixeira (23-4; 6-2 UFC) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-2; 4-2 UFC)
Brazil's Teixeira lost a pair of fights to Jon Jones and Phil Davis but got back on track with an emphatic win over Ovince Saint Preux in August. He draws the rising Patrick Cummins, who dominated Rafael Cavalcante at UFC 190 after suffering a knockout at the hands of Saint Preux.
This is effectively Teixeira's last chance to make another run at the top of the light heavyweight division. He's 36 and has more than a decade of professional experience under his belt, and having lost to Jones once, he already needs to make a real statement.
Conversely, this is Cummins' chance to prove he belongs among the division's elite. At 34, he's no spring chicken, and time is running out to make the jump to the top.
Teixeira is well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. His game is based on aggressive pressure and forward movement; while not exactly fast, he cuts off the cage fairly well and does a good job of forcing his opponents to the fence.
The Brazilian packs serious power in his punches. He is right-hand dominant and leads with a straight right or right hook almost every time. He usually follows with the left hook, and as much as he favors the right, the left is really his money punch. Pace and output are strong suits, but Teixeira's aggressiveness leaves him there to be hit, and he is not a defensive wizard.
While he is mostly known for his punching power, the best part of Teixeira's arsenal lies in the combination of his stout wrestling and vicious top game. He is an outstanding wrestler with a preference for technically finished single-legs and the occasional double, and defensively he has stuffed all but the most accomplished chain wrestlers.
Teixeira's top game is one of the most dangerous and diverse in the entire sport. His passes are smooth and technical, and he sets them up with thunderous ground strikes. Once he reaches the mount, he looks for a slick arm-triangle, and if his opponents try to scramble, he's more than capable of spinning to the back or finding a guillotine in transition.
Cummins came into MMA as a wrestler, and that still forms the basis of his game. He's not a bad striker per se, as he has reasonably solid kicks and punches that pack power, but they mostly serve to disguise his level changes and vice versa. He excels at distracting opponents with the threat of the takedown and then coming upstairs with a hook or uppercut. On the downside, he's hittable and doesn't have a great chin.
Once he gets in on the hips, often via the threat of a punch upstairs or as a counter to his opponent's strikes, Cummins is suffocating. He chains together singles, doubles and trips to positional advancements to the rear waist-cinch and then mat returns.
It's nearly impossible for most opponents to get him off and create space, and it doesn't get any better on the mat. His top control is fluid and dynamic, and he moves seamlessly between guard passes and control positions such as the top ride. If his opponent manages to get back to his feet, Cummins is happy to take him down once again.
Betting Odds
Teixeira -440, Cummins +350
Prediction
Those odds seem a bit wide to me. On paper, Teixeira should be able to stuff Cummins' takedowns and put him to sleep with a big punch, but there is also the possibility that the American manages to get inside, work takedowns and simply suffocate Teixeira until he tires. Davis, another skilled chain wrestler, managed to do exactly that. The game plan is there for Cummins, and the question is execution.
The more likely scenario, however, involves Cummins finding early success but eventually falling victim to his subpar defense and the Brazilian's power. The pick is Teixeira by knockout in the first round.
Vitor Belfort vs. Dan Henderson
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Middleweights
Vitor Belfort (24-11; 13-7 UFC) vs. Dan Henderson (31-13; 8-7 UFC)
The third meeting between Belfort and Henderson makes for a somewhat depressing matchup. Both fighters have substantially fallen off their peak form, and even the late-career resurgences—fueled in no small part by generous helpings of testosterone replacement therapy—are in the increasingly distant past.
Belfort has fought only once since viciously knocking out Henderson almost exactly two years ago. After an early flurry, middleweight champion Chris Weidman put him down and finished him inside three minutes. Henderson is 2-2 since losing to Belfort and snapped a two-fight skid with a win over Tim Boetsch in his last outing.
We can only hope that both fighters are on their way out the door. Neither has anything left to prove at this point.
Belfort has grown more skilled as a striker in the last several years, but the basic outlines of the southpaw's game remain the same. He is a monster in the first round and is still essentially a swarmer. He circles patiently, throwing very little volume, and then picks his spots to unleash a long and devastating flurry of punches.
His power and hand-speed remain elite, even as the rest of his physical gifts have diminished. He's crafty, too, and uses the threat of the straight left and left high kick together. If the opponent slips to avoid the straight, he runs the risk of ducking into a high kick or a left hook. The additional threat of spinning kicks keeps opponents moving toward the left hand, and he makes them pay if they don't.
The Brazilian isn't a defensive mastermind, relying on his speed, angles and control of the distance to keep himself out of trouble. Durability is another concern as he ages.
The rest of Belfort's game seems to move up and down. His takedown defense has generally been solid, and he certainly knows how to hit a variety of takedowns, though he's done so rarely in the last decade or so. On the mat, he has active hips, an aggressive guard and good instincts in transition, while from top position he's a bomber.
Henderson is a former Olympic wrestler, but that hasn't been the basis of his game for a very long time. Entire careers have come and gone in the UFC since Henderson relied on his wrestling to win fights.
Instead, the bread and butter of Henderson's approach is the right hand. He still packs ridiculous, brutal power, and when he pulls the trigger it's a devastating, accurate and well-timed shot. He throws it as a naked lead, after inside low kicks and as a counter in the pocket, among other things. The overhand right is the punch for which he's most known, but his right uppercut is equally devastating.
While his power and killer instinct are still intact, the rest of Henderson's arsenal is diminished. His jab remains stiff and his left hook powerful, though underutilized, but that is essentially the extent of his striking repertoire. He remains a good clinch fighter with strong control and vicious power in small spaces, but he barely looks for takedowns, and his defensive wrestling skills come and go.
Grappling is not Henderson's strong suit at this point, but more worrisome is his fading durability. For a long time, he had one of the best chins in the history of the sport, but those days are long past, and it's a real question whether he can continue to eat flush shots.
Betting Odds
Belfort -360, Henderson +300
Prediction
It's obvious why the Brazilian is the favorite, but it seems crazy to think that a borderline-shot Belfort should be nearly 4-1 over anyone. Still, the matchup seems to favor him. This will likely play out on the feet and in the clinch, and in that scenario Belfort's hand speed, power and greater striking diversity should give him an edge.
The pick is Belfort by knockout in the first round.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report. He can be found on Twitter.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
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