Predicting If Golf's Top Stars Will Improve or Regress in 2016
Looking at the results of the game’s stars, you realize two things: Golf has never been deeper in talent, and these guys make a lot of money.
Sure, they shell out a lot of dough getting to and from tournaments—something nobody ever talks about—but, man, these guys are helping the U.S. Treasury like nobody’s business.
Several of these golfers had banner years in 2015. Looking at Jordan Spieth, can we realistically ask the same of him in 2016? Ever? Beyond some of the runs Tiger Woods went on in his prime, Spieth may have had his greatest run. Only time will tell.
"Two majors, the FedEx Cup title, five wins and Player of the Year honors. Yes, this was clearly The Year of Jordan Spieth—so far. Two decades from now, though, when he's nearing the finish line of this marathon, such a description of a single campaign could be followed by a simple, serious response: Which one?
"
Other golfers who had decent years will more than likely improve, while some will regress.
So we’ll take a look at the game’s best players and see if we can expect more or less from them in the coming season.
Justin Rose
1 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Won the Zurich Classic, tied for second at the Masters
2015 Earnings: $5,462,677
Justin Rose is the oft-forgotten player when you talk about the best golfers in the world. He’s No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking and already notched a top-10 finish in the Frys.com Open in the wrap season. On top of that, he won the Hong Kong Open, a European Tour event, on Oct. 25.
These fall events set the table for the following year.
In 2015, he played in 20 events and posted eight top-10 finishes, including one win in the Zurich Classic and three runner-ups, including one such second in the Masters.
Rose won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion and has the right makeup to keep pace in all four majors.
Verdict: Improve
Dustin Johnson
2 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Won Cadillac Championship, three-putted final hole in the U.S. Open and lost
2015 Earnings: $5,509,467
Dustin Johnson returned to the PGA Tour after that shadowy leave of absence and returned with the focus of a Jedi. He won the Cadillac Championship and contended in nearly every major.
Johnson failed to channel the Force during that epic three-putt on No. 72 at Chambers Bay that gift-wrapped the U.S. Open for Spieth. Missed putts, he did.
As long off the tee as Johnson is (317.7 yards, ranked No. 1), shaving some distance to clean up accuracy (55.53 percent, No. 165) would show dividends in 2016.
Last season allowed him to get acclimated to another full year on the tour—a cleaner year, we are to believe. 2016 could be the first year he wins multiple tournaments since 2010. With nine career wins, Johnson has won at least one tournament a year since 2008.
Expect him to build on that and, by all accounts, improve.
Verdict: Improve
Jason Day
3 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Won the PGA Championship and three other tournaments, finished season as the No. 1 player in the world
2015 Earnings: $9,403,330
Jason Day had a total year. He won early (Farmers Insurance Open) and won four of the final seven tournaments he played, including the PGA Championship and two tournaments in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
It's hard to believe this was the same player who suffered through vertigo at the U.S. Open. Day said in Matias Grez’s CNN.com story:
"I said to myself, 'You know what, I've got to keep counting down the holes, I've got to keep pushing myself—you have an opportunity to win your first major championship,' and that's what I wanted so badly.
Unfortunately I didn't get my first major championship there but just to be able to gut it out and get through that week was fantastic.
"
Day showed that his game has different volumes, specifically cranking it up at the end. It wasn’t a season-long grind like Spieth went through. Sure, Day had his own friction to deal with, but the heat was never as intense as it was on Spieth.
Winning five events is tough to eclipse, and to expect something similar is far too much to ask of this Aussie.
Verdict: Regress
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Bubba Watson
4 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Won HSBC Champions and Travelers Championship
2015 Earnings: $6,876,797
Bubba Watson won the Masters in 2012. Not 2013. He won it again in 2014. Not 2015.
Like the San Francisco Giants winning a World Series, the past three Ryder Cup years, Watson is trending north, and as he matures as a golfer, he could have a Vijay Singh sort of run as he nears 40. And Watson has the added benefit of already having two majors in his closet.
Watson said in Jaime Diaz’s Golf Digest story:
"I think I'm getting smarter. That's why mid-30s is when players have their biggest success, because you've made enough dumb bogeys and enough mistakes that you've made it a little bit cleaner, a little bit better, not always trying to be the hero. So my career is on the up. Yeah, I've rubbed some people the wrong way, probably always will. But I think I'm finally getting better at change.
"
Should Watson translate the composure that has worked so well at Augusta to more events, he will most certainly improve in 2016.
Verdict: Improve
Rickie Fowler
5 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Won the Players Championship and Deutsche Bank Championship
2015 Earnings: $5,773,430
In 2014, Rickie Fowler finished in the top five in all four majors. In 2015, though he didn’t win a major, he won the unofficial fifth major and a tournament in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
As it stands, he’s slowly gaining altitude, winning bigger and bigger events with each year. Being voted the most overrated player on the PGA Tour (along with Ian Poulter) stuck in his craw.
"Being called overrated, I won three times, so thanks for the poll, I guess," he said in Emily Kay’s SB Nation story.
To which he added, “I've been playing very well the last couple of years. It was just a matter of time before I knocked on the door. It was maybe unfortunate that the poll came out at that time, and it was just coincidence that I won at that time."
This next year will see Fowler in the final pairing in a major.
Verdict: Improve
Tiger Woods
6 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Zero wins, four missed cuts, one withdrawal, season-ending back surgery
2015 Earnings: $448,598
After he finished in a tie for 10th at the Wyndham Championship, things were looking up for Tiger Woods.
Then he had to have another back surgery. He could miss the entire year, something he should have considered last year. The scorecard on his surgeries has nearly run out of room.
Will he win tournaments again? He’ll probably win a few more. None will come easy, as they once did. No one fears him anymore.
"I’ll start my rehab soon," he said (h/t Emily Kay’s SB Nation story). "It’s a long and tedious rehab. Last time, it took me a very long time to come back. Some players on tour they’ve had it done and and it’s taken for them to be pain-free over a year."
Still, given his dismal down, down, down 2015 where he was, as you know, between swing patterns for the entirety of the year, the bar is about as low as a speed bump for Woods.
One has to think he’ll improve, but then again, maybe he’ll flounder. In terms of his game—three rounds in the 80s, four missed cuts—that’s about as rock bottom as it gets for a player of his talents, diminishing as they are as he approaches 40.
Verdict: Too soon to tell, but it's hard not to say regress
Rory McIlroy
7 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Won the Match Play and Wells Fargo, missed Open Championship with an ankle injury, largely forgotten in 2015 thanks to Spieth
2015 Earnings: $4,863,312
Remember this guy? Rory McIlroy is already playing competitive golf. He finished in a tie for 26th at the Frys.com Open. He’s currently playing in the Turkish Airlines Open on the Road to Dubai.
With all the talk of Spieth and Day in 2015, McIlroy was, in a sense, forgotten.
"We live in such a world that everything's so reactionary, and everything happens so quickly," McIlroy said leading up the PGA Championship, according to John P. Borneman of the Pioneer Press (via ChicagoTribune.com). "A year ago, after I won this tournament, it was the Rory Era. And then Jordan wins the Masters, and it's the Jordan Era. And eras last about 6 months these days instead of 20 years."
Should McIlroy stay healthy in 2016, he will have a big year, maybe a player-of-the-year type of season.
Verdict: Improve
Jordan Spieth
8 of 8
2015 in a Glance: Five wins, two majors, FedEx Cup champion
2015 Earnings: $12,030,465 (does not include FedEx Cup bonus)
Nobody in his sober mind would bring to the bar the argument that Spieth will have a better 2016 than 2015.
Adding in the FedEx Cup bonus, he won over $22 million, winning the first two majors of the year, was a putt away from joining the playoff at the Open and finished second at the PGA Championship. There are far too many reasons why he can’t duplicate half of what he did.
Spieth may never have another year like he did in 2015. It's depressing if you’re Spieth to have possibly peaked at age 22, but his 2015 season is a top-five campaign over the past 20 years. Only some of Woods’ seasons during his prime surpassed what Spieth did in 2015.
The mental acuity to play at such a high level is what grinds the pencil to a nub. We saw it in small doses during the FedEx Cup playoffs. Spieth missed the first two cuts, but as the stakes escalated, his game regained its sharpness.
Next year he will regress, but what does that mean? Regression for him could mean three wins and two top-five finishes in the majors.
When you climb Everest, there’s one way to go from there.
Verdict: Regress
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