Dolphins vs. Patriots: Full New England Game Preview

The New England Patriots are a battered team, but there's no rest for the weary headed into Week 8. Just four days after their most physical and emotionally draining win of the season over the New York Jets, the Pats will again take the Gillette Stadium turf against another upstart AFC East rival in the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins have been the embodiment of the boost a new head coach can provide. The listless squad that started 1-3 under Joe Philbin has given way to an uber-efficient group of barnburners under Dan Campbell.  Miami has not trailed in its two games under Campbell, pummeling the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans by a combined margin of 82-36.

Battering AFC South lambs hardly validates a team, but there's no doubt the Dolphins have exhibited significantly more energy under Campbell, with previously underperforming stars such as Cameron Wake and Lamar Miller exploding over the past fortnight. The Patriots will enter the game as consensus favorites with the contest taking place in Foxborough, but it's certainly a tricky spot against a hungry team that is playing with its hair on fire.

New England could very much use the imminent 10-day break to heal its wounds, but for now it's full speed ahead. Read on for the key matchups and X-factors that will determine whether or not the Patriots remain unbeaten.

Week 7 Results and Recap

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Facing a New York Jets squad with almost ideal personnel to flummox the Patriots, New England needed every ounce of juice and all 60 minutes to hold off its top division rivals. With the 30-23 win, the 6-0 Patriots not only kept pace with fellow AFC unbeatens in Denver and Cincinnati but also opened up some important breathing room over New York.

It was hardly a perfect game in terms of execution, with the defense struggling on third downs and the offense relying almost solely on the right arm of Brady. Despite a terrific effort against the run from the Pats (3.1 yards per carry allowed), the Jets held a six-minute edge in time of possession due to their 8-of-14 conversion rate on third downs. Eric Decker was particularly menacing in these critical situations, routinely beating Malcolm Butler's man coverage from the slot with backbreaking drive-extenders.

The Pats consequently went large chunks of time without seeing the ball, especially in the first and third quarters, which placed added pressure on Brady to deliver an efficient performance. Even with a whopping 10 drops from his receivers (including six from Brandon LaFell), Brady completed 34 of 54 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns.

Typically a pressure-oriented defense, the Jets instead chose to rush four on the majority of plays, adopting a coverage-based game plan, which ended up playing into Brady's hands for much of the second half.

There will be a Week 16 rematch, and it will be intriguing to see if New York returns to its blitz-happy roots and finds a way to keep Chris Ivory (who appeared to play through a hamstring injury on Sunday) more involved in the offense. However, by staving off the Jets' upset bid, the Patriots ensured themselves a strong chance of locking down the AFC East title by the time the rematch rolls around in December.

News and Notes

Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Injuries Unprecedented for Belichick

Bill Belichick has been on someone's NFL coaching staff every year since 1975, when he started with a Colts organization that still resided in Baltimore. So when he talks about seeing an unprecedented level of injuries, as he did when the Patriots dressed just 18 offensive players on Sunday, it's certainly eye-opening. He said, per ESPN.com Mike Reiss:

"

Very rare. I don't think I've ever gone in with that few players, and really, you count [Matthew] Slater as one of them, but he's really ... you know how many plays he's played on offense in his career here.

We were pretty thin all the way across. Guys all stepped up and did a really good job. We had a lot of ironmen out there.

"

The lack of depth prevented the Pats from carrying out some preferred rotations, such as along the offensive line, while also forcing rusty players such as Brandon LaFell and Cameron Fleming into outsized roles. That the Pats were still able to post 30 points on one of the league's elite defenses speaks to Brady's brilliance more than anything, but the unit was certainly skating on thin ice.

It looks like the Patriots will roll the dice on offense again in Week 8, as the four-day layoff doesn't look sufficient for most of New England's depth to return to the field. Many were concerned about this season's early Week 4 bye, and with the trainer's room starting to fill up, the Pats will need to grind their way through the dog days over the next two months.

Can Offense Stay One-Dimensional vs. Miami?

The Pats have thrived offensively despite being one of the league's most imbalanced teams. New England has thrown on 67.8 percent of its offensive plays this year, the NFL's second-highest percentage behind the Detroit Lions, yet has remained the highest-scoring offense due to Tom Brady's MVP-caliber campaign. However, in talking about Miami's defense, Brady suggested that this week's game plan would not rely so heavily on his right arm, per NESN's Doug Kyed:

"So they get ahead and they kind of release the pass rushers on you, and then Cameron Wake strip-sacks the quarterback, and next thing you know, the game’s blown open. It was blown open in the second quarter against Houston, in the third quarter against Tennessee. We got to make sure we try to stay on track and execute well so that we keep things under control. But you can’t be one-dimensional against these guys. These guys are really a talented group."

Last season, Brady's season high in pass attempts came in the Patriots' Week 1 loss at Sun Life Stadium, when he threw 56 times in a futile second-half comeback attempt. New England actually averaged a solid 4.5 yards per carry in that game, but even while the game remained close until the fourth quarter, the Pats bizarrely abandoned the run despite severe pass-protection woes that day.

The offensive line has been shakier since the bye week, and things aren't likelier to get much better with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake on the other side of the line. Miami's run defense has improved since its torpid September start, but expect Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount to receive a significantly larger workload than they did on Sunday.

Field Goals Don't Beat Patriots

It's a widely cited adage that, to beat a good team, settling for field goals isn't going to help an underdog finish the upset. In his weekly "Clutch Encounters" article, Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar quantified that adage as it relates to the Patriots, noting that teams have had remarkably little success when settling for late field goals in close games, as the Jets did on Sunday:

"

People always say "you have to score touchdowns and be aggressive to beat the Patriots in New England" and they are not lying. I have the proof. Teams that attempt a fourth-quarter field goal in Foxboro when the game is within three points either way are now 1-13 since 2001. Only the 2008 Jets won, but that was a little different since their 34-yard field goal came in overtime.

"

New England's red-zone stand against the Jets on a nine-play drive that ended with roughly 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter only extended New York's lead to 20-16. Of course, the Pats went on to score on their next two possessions—a 14-0 run that left the Jets down multiple possessions when they had been just 12 yards from taking their own double-digit lead.

We've seen defensive coordinators alter some fundamental staples of their schemes in recent weeks to account for New England's in-breaking routes on offense. With teams already moving out of their schematic comfort zones against the Patriots, perhaps it's only a matter of time before we see opposing teams adopt more aggressive fourth-down strategy against New England to maximize their points ceiling.

Latest Injury News

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Patriots			Dolphins
Player	Injury	Status	Player	Injury	Status
Marcus Cannon	Toe	DNP	Zackary Bowman	Shoulder	Limited
Rufus Johnson	Illness	DNP	Brent Grimes	Knee/Ribs	Limited
Jabaal Sheard	Ankle	DNP	Brice McCain	Knee	Limited
Shaq Mason	Knee	Limited	Matt Moore	Nose	Limited
Dion Lewis	Abdomen	Limited	Spencer Paysinger	Groin	Limited
Brandon Bolden	Hamstring	Limited	Jordan Phillips	Ankle	Full
Keshawn Martin	Hamstring	Limited	Mike Pouncey	Hip	Full
Josh Kline	Shoulder	Full
Dont'a Hightower	Ribs	Full
Trey Flowers	Knee/Ribs	Full

The Pats only held a walkthrough on Tuesday ahead of the Thursday night tilt, but the lack of participation from three players suggests that there is almost no chance they'll be ready for the game. The trio of Marcus Cannon, Rufus Johnson and Jabaal Sheard all missed the Jets game and figures to do so once again, leaving the Pats thinner at edge defender and tackle.

The only good news is that the Jets game didn't appear to create any new major injuries. Brandon Bolden is the lone new addition to this week's injury report, with Josh Kline, Dont'a Hightower and Trey Flowers all going from limited participants last week to full ones this week.

The top concern remains Dion Lewis; although his Week 7 absence was deemed precautionary, the Pats missed his receiving ability out of the backfield against the Jets.

The Dolphins have been dinged up in the secondary for much of the season, with starting cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Brice McCain both missing time with knee injuries. McCain missed last week's game against the Houston Texans but appears to have a chance to return this week. If the offseason free-agent signing misses his second consecutive game, disappointing third-year pro Jamar Taylor would once again start in his place.

No team is ever at full strength for a Thursday game, but the Dolphins clearly possess the health advantage over the Patriots. As much as New England would like to move to 7-0, the bigger win would be escaping its second game in four days without any major injuries.

Injury report via Patriots.com.

Key Matchups

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Right Side of Patriots O-Line vs. Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake

Miami poured its offseason resources into constructing a fearsome defensive line but initially saw a penurious return with just one sack through its first four games. In the past two weeks, however, the Dolphins have accumulated 10 sacks, tops in the league, with Suh and Wake combining for eight of those takedowns.

After spending much of their careers on the weak side, both men have played almost exclusively on the strong side this season, with the 33-year-old Wake adopting a more situational pass-rushing role. Thus, the task will likely fall on David Andrews, Tre' Jackson and either Cameron Fleming or Sebastian Vollmer (depending on Marcus Cannon's availability) to limit the Dolphins' All-Pro tandem.

Wake in particular has been a Patriot-killer, with 8.5 career sacks against New England, the most he's accrued against any single team. The edge-rusher almost single-handedly paralyzed the Patriots offense in Miami's Week 1 win over the Pats last season, and given the occasional struggles Fleming had against Muhammad Wilkerson last week, this matchup might determine the efficacy of New England's passing game.

Logan Ryan vs. Jarvis Landry

Against the Jets, Belichick made the decision to place Malcolm Butler in solo man coverage on Eric Decker in the slot, countering Jets No. 1 receiver Brandon Marshall with bracket coverage from Logan Ryan and Devin McCourty. While the latter matchup worked well in limiting Marshall to a season-low four receptions, Butler repeatedly proved incapable of handling the two-way releases afforded to Decker from the inside alignment and played his worst game of the season.

Against an even quicker and more fluid route-runner in Landry, Butler would ostensibly figure to struggle again from the slot. His length might represent a better matchup on the perimeter against a big receiver such as Rishard Matthews or Kenny Stills, while Ryan's superior lateral agility would figure to match up better against Landry.

Either way, Landry represents New England's biggest concern in the passing game. The second-year pro has emerged as the catalyst of Miami's offense, with his run-after-the-catch ability dovetailing nicely with Miami's quick-strike passing scheme. Landry has garnered 18 more targets than any other Dolphins receiver, so whether it's Ryan or Butler, look for Belichick to roll coverage toward him and force Ryan Tannehill to move the ball elsewhere.

Patriots Front Seven vs. Lamar Miller

Heinously underutilized during the first four games, Miami's top running back has since broken out with increased touches under Campbell. Over the past two weeks, Miller leads the league in yards from scrimmage (354) on 38 touches, despite sitting out the entire second half of Miami's blowout win over Houston on Sunday. After averaging just 11.8 touches per game under Joe Philbin, Miller is now a focal point in Miami's offense, demonstrating the same explosiveness and slippery running he exhibited last season.

The Patriots defense has improved significantly against the run after a shaky start. Since Week 3, New England has allowed just 3.85 yards per carry, 11th in the league. However, the Pats have also faced largely gap-blocking power-running teams; the Dallas Cowboys are the only zone-blocking run scheme New England has encountered over its past four games.

The Dolphins have a unique offense built around tempo and inside zone runs. Miami shredded the Patriots defense with this system in its Week 1 win last year, garnering 191 rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry, though the Pats did shut the ground game down in the Week 15 rematch (76 yards, 3.3 yards per carry). Either way, as both a runner and receiver, Miller is a dangerous open-field weapon capable of helping Miami control the clock on Thursday.

Matchup X-Factors

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Patriots X-Factor of the Week: Julian Edelman

New England's top receiver has had a few high-profile drops over the past two games, including a would-be touchdown against the Jets and one that led to Tom Brady's first (and so far, only) interception of the season against Indianapolis. However, in a sneakily juicy matchup against top Miami cornerback Brent Grimes, Edelman should be in line for a big bounce-back effort.

The former All-Pro has long been one of the NFL's most physical man-coverage corners despite being an undersized 5'10", 185 pounds, but the 32-year-old Grimes has shown signs of erosion this season. Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Dolphins rank 30th in defending opposing teams' No. 1 wide receivers.  Given that the Fins utilize more of a man-oriented scheme, it's fair to pin the majority of that responsibility on Grimes.

Granted, he's also been dealing with an MCL sprain for much of the season and did bounce back with a strong showing against Houston's DeAndre Hopkins (six catches, 50 yards) on Sunday. However, Edelman is stylistically different than Hopkins, and it's not difficult to imagine the former exploiting Grimes' limited mobility with his agility and speed over the middle.

After accruing at least 85 yards receiving in each of his first four games, Edelman has been limited to 50 and 54 yards the past two weeks. However, look for Minitron to snap his abbreviated slump and regain some of his mojo against the Dolphins.

Dolphins X-Factor of the Week: Reshad Jones

In a largely porous secondary, safety Reshad Jones has broken out in his sixth season. With the versatility to play in the box or as a deep center fielder, Jones is the versatile glue who covers up many of the warts among Miami's defensive backs. Additionally, he's also made team history with big plays each of the past two weeks:

"

Reshad Jones became the first player in Dolphins history to have two interceptions returned for a touchdown in consecutive games.

— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) October 25, 2015"

Jones is also the primary reason why the Dolphins rank eighth in DVOA defending tight ends, per Football Outsiders, and he'll represent Miami's best hope against Rob Gronkowski. The 6'2", 215-pound Jones has better size and movement skills than most safeties, and while he won't necessarily be able to keep pace with Gronk, he might help limit the big chunks down the seams that have become a Gronkowski staple every week.

More likely, Jones will receive bracket coverage help from a linebacker such as Koa Misi or Jelani Jenkins, as no team has really single-covered Gronkowski on a consistent basis all season. Nevertheless, given Miami's issues on the perimeter, Jones needs to deliver for the Fins to have a legitimate chance at limiting New England's offense.

Prediction: Patriots 32, Dolphins 22

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Many Patriots fans might be looking ahead to the Thanksgiving weekend prime-time matchup against the Denver Broncos as New England's next big challenge. But it's presumptuous to overlook these Dolphins, who have finally snapped out of their September malaise and flashed the talent that once made them popular preseason playoff picks.

Nevertheless, traveling to Gillette Stadium on a short week is a difficult task for any team, which makes the Patriots solid favorites. Envisioning a Miami victory starts with a strong ball control effort from Miller and Landry on offense, with the likes of Suh and Wake wreaking havoc on New England's pass protection and possibly creating short fields for the offense with multiple takeaways.

That should sound familiar to last week's blueprint for the Jets. The problem is that New York had superior personnel to execute that game plan; while the Jets did give the Patriots their toughest challenge of the season, New England overcame its own bevy of mistakes to win anyway.

There's no guarantee the Patriots deliver a crisper showing, of course, but New England does have a considerable margin for error. While this game no longer looks like the walkover win it may have been a month ago, expect the Pats to pump the brakes on Miami's resurgence.

Prediction: Patriots 32, Dolphins 22