NBA Draft 2016: Sophomores and Juniors Primed for Breakout Seasons
The NBA draft isn't always about the one-and-done freshmen. Sometimes, it takes a year or two for a prospect to find his confidence and offensive game.
Last year, we saw a handful of sophomores and juniors break out as first-round risers, including Willie Cauley-Stein, Cameron Payne, Terry Rozier, Sam Dekker and Justin Anderson.
We're going to see another group of upperclassmen do the same in 2015-16.
Whether it's due to an expanded role, a better setting or expected improvement, look for the following prospects to soar up draft boards during their second or third college seasons.
Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame, PG)
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All signs point to a big year ahead for Demetrius Jackson, who after excelling in a secondary role alongside Jerian Grant, now has the keys to the Irish offense.
Having averaged 12.4 points and 3.1 assists despite being used in just 18.5 percent of his team's possessions, Jackson should ultimately be capable of putting up big numbers in 2015-16.
And he'll look to prove his efficiency last year wasn't a fluke. Jackson shot 50.8 percent from the floor, turned it over only 1.7 times per 40 minutes and made at least 40 percent of his threes for the second straight year.
Though limited size naturally caps his perceived NBA upside, a strong 201-pound frame and explosive athleticism make it difficult not to think about Eric Bledsoe's success.
Proving he can effectively run the Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense and push the right buttons as a facilitator could eventually lead to lottery buzz.
Justin Jackson (North Carolina, SF)
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It took a few months to figure things out, but when he eventually did, Justin Jackson looked like a legitimate first-round prospect.
He should enter his sophomore year with a whole different level of confidence. And that should ultimately mean higher shooting percentages and larger offensive outputs.
Jackson, a smooth, 6'8" wing, has three-point range and a convincing outside stroke, even if the consistency wasn't there in 2014-15. This season, we'll likely see him do a bit more attacking off the dribble, a situation in which he's comfortable lofting up floaters on the move and getting to the rack in straight line drives.
Jackson told Scout.com's Greg Barnes:
"I’m more confident than I’ve honestly ever been. And with that, practice has just made me more aggressive and really helped my game in so many different ways. As far as me as a player, I feel like I’ve gotten better in a lot of aspects that I need to get better in over the offseason, whether that was getting stronger or getting my shot more consistent or ball handling, whatever it was.
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We should also continue to see Jackson thrive in transition, where his body control and finishing instincts translate to easy buckets.
Jackson projects as a key cog in a lineup with Final Four aspirations. Look for him to generate draft buzz that wasn't quite there his freshman year.
Damian Jones (Vanderbilt, C)
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A strong sophomore season should lead to a bigger one in 2015-16, when Damian Jones will look to make a case for lottery consideration.
Jones, who averaged 14.4 points on 56.1 percent last year, has the chance to emerge as one of the premier big men in the country.
He even measured two inches taller this summer at the LeBron James Skills Academy. Now 7'0", 245 pounds, Jones passes the NBA center eye test with a tremendous blend of size and above-the-rim athleticism.
At the very least, it should strengthen Jones' presence under the boards, where he only averaged 6.5 rebounds a season ago.
Otherwise, expect Jones' postgame to continue developing. In the past, we've seen flashes of nifty moves and shot-making ability from the elbows. He's shown he can mix it up with back-to-the-basket power and over-the-shoulder touch.
Becoming a more consistent shooting threat in the mid-range could ultimately launch him up draft boards as a junior.
Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin, SF/PF)
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No more Sam Dekker or Frank Kaminsky should result in a bigger role for Nigel Hayes, who now has the chance to emerge as Wisconsin's top option and a breakout NBA prospect.
He's already off to a promising start, having put up better-than-expected measurements for the Pan American Games, including 6'8" size, a 240-pound frame and a monster 7'3½" wingspan.
In terms of his skill set, he's really expanded his offensive game, which we should get to see in a more featured role his junior year.
Look for Hayes to tie all the versatility together in 2015-16. He's flashed a crafty back-to-the-basket game primarily made up of countermoves. And though not the sharpest one-on-one player, he's become a threat to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim in line drives.
But most importantly, Hayes' jumper has become a serious threat. He knocked down 40 threes at a 39.6 percent clip last year after not taking any as a freshman.
The fact that he never turns the ball over (1.5 times per 40 minutes) only enhances his appeal as a potential NBA role player.
With extra touches and more opportunities to showcase his inside-out attack, look for Hayes to make some noise as a first-round riser in 2016.
Tim Quarterman (LSU, PG/SG)
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Tim Quarterman didn't quite stand out under the NBA lens—until the final 11 games last year, when he took over at point and averaged 5.7 assists.
It was just a taste of Quarterman's versatility, which highlights his 6'6" size, athleticism and playmaking ability.
Quarterman has ultimately demonstrated a strong feel as a setup man and pick-and-roll facilitator. And having flashed improved shooting range and accuracy as a sophomore—his three-point percentage rose to 31.3 percent from 20.8 percent—he looks poised to make another leap.
He's also coming off an encouraging summer that saw him generate positive buzz at Adidas Nations and average 16.4 points, 4.6 assists and 5.2 rebounds (through five games) during LSU's August trip to Australia.
Quarterman is trending upward heading into season No. 3. Chances are we see it all come together in 2015-16 alongside new freshmen weapons Ben Simmons and Antonio Blakeney.
Devin Robinson (Florida, SF)
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Devin Robinson, once a highly touted recruit, got off to a slow start as a freshman before finding a rhythm last February.
After scoring in double figures just four times through his first 23 games, he hit the 10-point mark in six of Florida's final 10 contests.
Robinson ultimately looks the part of an NBA small forward with 6'8" size and above-the-rim hops. This year, expect his offensive game to start clicking.
He wasn't particularly accurate last year as a shooter, but his 21 made threes at least highlight shot-making ability. Meanwhile, his physical tools and athleticism translate to easy buckets off slashes, drives, cuts and transition opportunities.
Still, it's his defensive potential that could end up holding the most value early in his career. Size, quick feet and length allow Robinson to guard multiple positions—inside and out.
Count on him to be a little more assertive in year No. 2 with Michael Frazier II out of the picture. Robinson should have a real chance to build up his reps, confidence and image as a two-way NBA prospect.
Malik Pope (San Diego State, SF)
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Malik Pope flashed significant NBA potential in just 14.8 minutes a game as a freshman. This year, look for him to back it up with some production in a bigger role.
From a scouting perspective, his bouncy athleticism, 6'10" size and 7'2" wingspan for a small forward immediately stand out. From there, it's Pope's 20-of-49 mark from three that creates intrigue. He's flashed a good-looking jumper, as well as the versatility to knock down shots off the catch, dribbles and screens.
A best-case-scenario outlook projects Pope as a face-up mismatch with shooting range and the ability to pick up easy buckets above the rim.
He'll have a better chance to build an NBA case with more touches and playing time in 2015-16. Expect a more aggressive Pope to break into the first-round discussion.
Grayson Allen (Duke, SG)
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In 9.2 minutes per game, we only saw flashes from Grayson Allen, but they were convincing enough to suggest a breakout sophomore year is coming.
He managed to average 18 points in the three games in which he played at least 20 minutes as a freshman. Allen went for 27 points against Wake Forest on March 4 before his 16-point effort in the national championship.
With Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones all off to the pros, Allen should be looking at a significant increase in touches and playing time.
Scouts should value his bounce, shooting potential and motor. This year, expect him to showcase a little more shot creativity to go with his signature high-flying athleticism, three-point range and intensity.
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