Loss vs. USC Shows Utah Was Always a Playoff Cinderella, Never a Favorite

Utah enjoyed a nice run near the top of the national polls, but a 42-24 loss at USC proved it never truly belonged there.

That's not to say the Utes aren't good. They are. They're very good. They earned their No. 3 ranking. They just always had a stinker like Saturday's game in them.

Quarterback Travis Wilson threw four interceptions in the loss, continuing a trend of recklessness that's plagued his entire career. As good as he can look on his best days, he's still the guy who threw six interceptions against UCLA two years ago.

At some point, he was bound to turn into a pumpkin.

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But Wilson wasn't alone in overachieving through seven weeks. Utah as a team had been punching above its weight.

One major story before the game concerned the lack of respect shown to Utah by Las Vegas. Sportsbooks opened USC, a team with three losses but rich history and brand recognition, as a 3.5-point favorite over Utah, a team with no losses but modest history and brand recognition. That spread rose as high as minus-6.5 before kickoff, according to Odds Shark.

But USC wasn't favored because it's sexier. That was just the narrative talking. Sportsbooks are too smart to get caught up in that.

USC was favored because it's better.

MGM race and sports director Jay Rood, one of the men responsible for setting the lines, explained the number Friday to Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times. Here's what he had to say:

"

In this spot, people see a ranked team versus an unranked team that's gone through some adversity and…just about every parlay ticket we've taken has Utah.

People think this is a tailspin for USC, but I don't see it as a tailspin. They just need to stabilize a bit. They have the No. 1 recruiting class, NFL talent all over the roster. All it takes is the coaches to say the right things and to put the guys in the right spots, and that team can play with anyone in the country.

"

Other, more transparent metrics came to the same conclusion.

Bill Connelly's S&P+ ratings at Football Study Hall, for example, ranked USC No. 11 and Utah No. 18 before the week. It gave the Trojans a 63 percent chance of winning. Like Vegas, it would not call Saturday's outcome an "upset."

It would call Saturday's outcome foreseeable.

So where does Utah go from here?

The good news is it can still make the College Football Playoff.

Even though it was highly overrated, it navigated the first half of its schedule unblemished, which gave it some margin for error.

More than that, it has a workable schedule. Even the S&P+ ratings—a metric that ranked Utah 15 spots lower than the Associated Press poll—think the Utes can finish 11-1:

Date	Opponent	S&P+ Rank	Proj. W-L	Utah Win Prob.	Proj. Margin
10/31	Oregon State	104	W	96%	29.9
11/7	at Washington	44	W	59%	4.0
11/14	at Arizona	68	W	74%	10.9
11/21	UCLA	25	W	66%	7.3
11/28	Colorado	99	W	94%	26.7

Those numbers will change based on Week 8's results, but they still provide a general template. Utah should be favored in its five remaining games, with only minor scares against Washington, Arizona and UCLA.

When you add up those probabilities, Utah still stands a decent (26 percent) chance of winning out. Doing so would launch it to the Pac-12 Championship Game with an 11-1 record. From there, one more win would make it a very serious playoff candidate.

Defensive back Tevin Carter hinted at that after the game, saying "the season's not over," per Utah's official Twitter account:

Carter has a point, which is why it's too early to throw dirt on Utah's grave. But it's not too soon to pick up the shovel.

Wilson has another bad game in him, because that's who he is: the 2015 version of Bo Wallace.

To extend that metaphor, Utah might be the 2015 version of 2014 Ole Miss: a defense-first team that started hot, rose higher than anyone thought possible, successfully hosted College GameDay…but never really felt like it belonged.

Even those who ranked Utah in the top three, which wasn't necessarily misguided, had to know this outcome was possible.

The clock was always ticking toward midnight.