PGA Tour 2016: Who Are the Favorites to Win Next Year's Majors?
Sure, it’s October, a full six months before the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club, but is it possible to be too early when discussing the tent poles of the 2016 golf season?
We know who the big guns are. There’s no real surprise waiting around the corner. There’s no 21-year-old wunderkind ready to take the tour like a Category 5 hurricane. The real question is how will the favorites pair up with the four major venues in 2016.
Of course there’s Augusta National, so add to that Oakmont Country Club for the U.S. Open, Royal Troon Golf Club for the Open Championship and Baltusrol Golf Club for the PGA Championship.
We’re looking for round pegs and round holes, so let’s see who pairs well with each course and start the handicapping—even if it is six months early—for 2016’s four major championships.
The Masters
1 of 4
Augusta National Golf Club
Par: 72
Length: 7,435 yards
Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth
Cue the music and Jim Nantz’s easy listening vocals.
The Masters favors longer hitters who can shape their shots along this undulating course. Spieth was the exception.
He doesn’t hit the ball as long or as accurately off the tee as a Bubba Watson, but Spieth still managed to wire the field in 2015 and turn himself into a star worthy of all the hype.
The weather is rarely an issue in Georgia in April with heat and humidity posing the biggest problem to these players.
It’s the most popular major and the most coveted, unless you’re European.
The Favorite
Jordan Spieth
This goes without saying. He’s the No. 1 player in the world and comes off a year where he won two majors and the FedEx Cup playoffs.
He and Augusta National go together like peanut butter and chocolate, and his capacity to roll in putts from anywhere on those greens makes him a threat this year and every year after for the next 15 years.
Notables
Tiger Woods
Woods came to Augusta National in 2015 playing the worst golf of his career. He made the cut and finished in a tie for 17th.
If Woods can, above all, get healthy, there’s no reason to think he can’t finish in the top 10.
Hideki Matsuyama
He finished alone in fifth in 2015 and is the one golfer who routinely performs well yet rarely gets attention. Maybe that has to do with the great language barrier he suffers from thus making him inaccessible.
His game is the universal language, and it speaks volumes. Don’t be surprised if he wins the Masters in 2016.
The U.S. Open
2 of 4
Oakmont Country Club
Par: 70
Length: 7,255 yards
Defending U.S. Open Champion: Spieth
Last U.S. Open Champion at OCC: Angel Cabrera, 2007
Kneel before the Church Pew bunkers at Oakmont Country Club, a signature hazard at this tight course.
Oakmont, located in suburban Pennsylvania, will be a tremendous challenge as U.S. Opens tend to be, as they should be.
When Angel Cabrera won at Oakmont in 2007, he was the only golfer who shot two rounds under par. This was an era when Woods was still a force.
“I was definitely feeling nervous, but I assumed that this is the same sensation everybody was having,” Cabrera said in Damon Hack’s 2007 New York Times story. “There are some players that have psychologists. I smoke.”
The Favorite
Henrik Stenson
Listen, it’d be easy to say Spieth or Rory McIlroy are the favorites to win EVERY major, but what’s the fun in that?
None. There’s no fun in that, so let’s pick a different favorite for each of the majors as long as it makes sense. Look no farther than Stenson.
He’s one of the best players without a major, and his recent play in the FedEx Cup playoffs suggests that he’s fully capable of winning one of next year's majors.
What makes him a U.S. Open favorite is his efficiency in hitting greens. He led the PGA Tour by hitting 73.52 percent of his greens, the best on Tour since Woods in 2006.
Notables
Dustin Johnson
He was right there at Chambers Bay before that infamous three-putt on No. 18.
Johnson straight up lost the U.S. Open. In many ways, he has the emotional complexity of a cyborg, so it should be no surprise to see him back in the mix at a U.S. Open.
There’s a major champion inside Johnson somewhere.
He’s long and accurate off the tee, and that nearly put him in a playoff at this past U.S. Open.
Rory McIlroy
Remember when McIlroy won two majors in 2014 and it was the “Rory Era”? Then Spieth went on his tear and made everyone forget about McIlroy.
It’s hard to win two majors in a single year and then come back the following year and win one. 2016? Advantage McIlory.
He won twice on the PGA Tour in 2015, and not winning a major sets him for a strong sequel.
The Open Championship
3 of 4
Royal Troon Golf Club
Par: 71
Length: 7,175
Defending Champion: Zach Johnson
Last Open Champion at Royal Troon: Todd Hamilton, 2004
Todd Hamilton won his only major by holding off Ernie Els in a playoff back in 2004. Phil Mickelson, having won the first major of his career at the Masters earlier that year, finished third.
It’s a fair course and should give players a mix of easy and difficult conditions.
“Royal Troon is a traditional out and back links course. The opening few holes are relatively gentle, with a series of short par fours running along the Fifth of Clyde,” reads Top100GolfCourses.com.
Gone with the wind, one with the wind.
This could be one of those front-runner friendly courses. That, of course, depends on the weather.
The Favorite
Rory McIlroy
A European will win this tournament, and McIlroy will look to take his second Open Championship in a row*.
When McIlroy gets out front, he’s tough to catch. The wide-open expanses and the “hometown” crowd will be in his corner.
He’s long off the tee, and when his game is dialed in, as it was in 2014, he has but one rival: Spieth.
Notables
Sergio Garcia
Has Garcia run out of runway to win a major? Maybe.
Last time at Royal Troon, Garcia missed the cut, which is a bit odd because he performs well at the Open.
The European galleries pull for this Spaniard, and if he’s in the hunt, he’ll be the fan favorite to win that elusive major championship.
Jason Day
He finished in a tie for fourth in the 2015 Open and won his first major at the PGA Championship a few weeks later.
Day is one of the best all-around golfers on tour, and if there’s a course where he can win that second career major, Royal Troon is the one.
*: McIlroy missed the 2015 renewal with an ankle injury.
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The PGA Championship
4 of 4
Baltusrol Golf Club
Par: 72
Length: 7,400
Defending Champion: Jason Day
Last PGA Champion at Baltusrol: Phil Mickelson, 2005
Baltusrol Golf Club hosts its 11th major championship—men's and women’s—when the PGA Championship tees off. It’s only the second time that a PGA Championship has been played here. That time, Phil Mickelson won his second career major in 2005.
BGC is, no doubt, a long and challenging course that will be monumentally different than the links-style course players saw at Whistling Straits in 2015.
Ryan Cannon, championship director, commented on the 2005 tournament in Andy Vasquez’s Record story (h/t NorthJersey.com):
"[That] was a wonderful event. In some ways, it wasn’t that long ago; in other ways, it might as well have been 100 years ago, because everything changes and evolves—not only the surroundings of where we’re trying to execute this championship, but the championship itself.…Hopefully it gets better. That’s our intent.
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Mickelson will be too old to win again, so who does that leave?
The Favorite
Rickie Fowler
He hasn’t won a major yet, but he won the Players Championship, and he won the Deutsche Bank Championship in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Fowler has the moxie and the game to win a major, and, lest we forget, he finished in the top five in all four majors in 2014.
Notables
Bubba Watson
Big-hitting Bubba Watson has come close in the PGA Championship, most notably losing in a playoff to Martin Kaymer in 2010.
Watson has one speed when he plays, but if that speed marries well with the course and the conditions, he’ll contend at Baltusrol.
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