Rugby World Cup 2015: Bold Predictions for New Zealand vs. South Africa

New Zealand take on South Africa with a place in the Rugby World Cup 2015 final at stake. A fascinating matchup sees the brawn of the Springboks up against the pragmatism of the All Blacks.

The first four of Bleacher Report’s bold predictions for the first semi-final have a strong tactical element to them, and the fifth is disciplinary. Do you agree with these forecasts?

Fourie du Preez to Outplay Aaron Smith

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“Aaron Smith is the best scrum-half around. He’s got a big All Blacks pack in front of him, which makes life a lot easier. Imagine being behind that every week; you could do anything. But his game-management, awareness and skill set as a scrum-half are pretty special.”

So said injured Wales No. 9 Rhys Webb, one of the world game’s up-and-coming half-backs, as quoted in the Guardian.

There is next to nothing to disagree with from Webb’s assessment, but he does hit on an important factor: Smith, to be at his best, needs the New Zealand pack to dominate.

Against South Africa, the forwards are likely to cancel each other out. Player for player, the Springboks could even claim to be stronger, but Kiwi organisation counts for a lot.

With Smith deprived of a pack constantly going forward, Fourie du Preez, that wise old South African head, could outplay his opposite number. He box kicks better, offers more physicality around the fringes of rucks and mauls and has the experience of marshalling his team to World Cup glory.

Francois Louw to Outplay Richie McCaw at the Breakdown

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Richie McCaw has a very strong case to be the finest forward in rugby history. His main strength has always been the breakdown. Until now.

Approaching 35, how much power does the All Blacks skipper still have to steal opposition possession and provide a quick ball for his team?

As per World Rugby Stats Hub, McCaw does not feature in the list of top turnover merchants at the tournament. His main opponent this week, Francois Louw, is 10th with six steals.

Fortunately for the All Blacks, Kieran Read has stepped up with seven snatches.

It could be argued that McCaw was lucky not to be sin-binned against France after a series of infringements at the breakdown. He also lost his head against Argentina and was yellow-carded for a trip.

McCaw’s primary function for the All Blacks now is as a leader. If it weren’t for that, Sam Cane would be wearing the seven jersey and Read could focus more on ball-carrying.

As the fetching flanker, expect Louw to dominate the celebrated All Black at the breakdown.

New Zealand to Score Against South Africa from a Cross-Kick

Dan Carter twice tested the French out by changing the focus of the Kiwi attack with a cross-kick. Toward the end of the first half, a promising lateral punt from the fly-half was knocked-on by Dane Coles, and France’s full-back Scott Spedding claimed another high ball minutes later.

With great jumpers such as Kieran Read and Ben Smith, New Zealand will have an eye for targeting the Springbok try line using this play.

New Zealand have form here. They employed the tactic to good effect when they beat South Africa 14-10 last year. That day Richie McCaw touched down after good aerial and offloading work from Read (see video above).

Aaron Cruden was the architect then, but Carter is more than able to deliver a pinpoint ball.

Bryan Habana to Break Jonah Lomu’s Rugby World Cup Try Record

Bryan Habana, level with Jonah Lomu with 15 World Cup tries, didn’t look like crossing the whitewash against Wales in the quarter-final, so why might he in the semi?

Habana has more chance of scoring this Saturday because to beat New Zealand, South Africa are going to have to offer a lot more in the backs. Against Wales, the Springboks could trust their power game in the forwards to deliver victory.

That’ll still be the main feature of their play against the All Blacks, but they will look to test young Nehe Milner-Skudder in the air, and should they throw the ball wide, going to Habana against Milner-Skudder makes more sense than banking on JP Pietersen versus Julian Savea.

South Africa have struggled to get Willie le Roux or Jesse Kriel into space this tournament, so Habana will be their go-to man against New Zealand.

A Sin-Binning

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Tight contests like this one promises to be are often decided on fine margins. And games that rest on a knife edge often lead to players doing all they can to gain an upper hand, which can dovetail into indiscipline and the referee going to his pocket.

Whether it’s a yellow card for killing the ball when the defence is stretched, or a tense, physical match causing a high tackle, expect New Zealand and South Africa to push the referee to his limits.

Not too many players get the chance to play in World Cup finals, so the excitement, pressure and adrenaline needed to get there can easily overflow.