Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions (1-5) will look to build off their first win of the season when they face the Minnesota Vikings (3-2) for the second time in six weeks on Sunday. The Vikings won the first matchup between the two NFC North teams 26-16 at home in Week 2 as 2.5-point home favorites, improving to 16-1 straight up in the past 17 meetings as chalk.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.5-20.7 Lions

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota plays great defense and has proven that the team does not need a stellar effort from running back Adrian Peterson to win games anymore. That was not the case before, but Peterson had just 60 yards on 26 carries last week in a 16-10 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs. He had 81 yards versus the Denver Broncos two weeks earlier, and the Vikings nearly pulled off the upset in a tough 23-20 loss.

Still, Peterson is more than capable of having a monster game against the Lions, as he totaled 134 yards on a season-high 29 carries in the first meeting and also caught two passes for 58 yards. Detroit’s defense is awful and should allow him to put up similar numbers.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions got back on track offensively last week in a 37-34 overtime win over the Chicago Bears, with quarterback Matthew Stafford posting a season-high 405 passing yards and four touchdowns. Stafford was pulled from the team’s previous game, a 42-17 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals, after throwing three interceptions.

A big part of Stafford’s revival was the re-emergence of wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who also totaled a season-high 166 yards and scored just his second touchdown this year. Johnson had 10 catches for only 83 yards in the first meeting with the Vikings, and his ability to stretch the field gives Detroit a dangerous offensive weapon.

Smart pick

This is a huge test for a Minnesota team that has yet to win a game away from home this season. The Vikings lost to the offensively challenged San Francisco 49ers 20-3 in the season opener as three-point road favorites and will find it difficult to beat the Lions in this spot as well. Look for Detroit to come through as a home underdog like San Francisco did and pull off the upset for the team’s second straight win.

Betting trends

The Vikings are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games as favorites against the Lions.

The Vikings are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games against the Lions.

The Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six games at home in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.