Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi Rebels Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Texas A&M is 2-1 in three meetings with Ole Miss since joining the Big 12, but the Rebels won last year's meeting and are 3-0 against the spread in the series. In an elimination game in the SEC West, the Aggies battle the Rebels Saturday night down in Oxford.

Point spread: Rebels opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.0-22.2 Rebels

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

After opening this season 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, Texas A&M came up short last week against Alabama, losing 41-23 in College Station and missing the cover as five-point home dogs. The Aggies fell down 28-6 with help from a pair of Crimson Tide interception returns for touchdowns, rallied to within one score at 28-20 midway through the third quarter but couldn't sustain the comeback and later allowed another Alabama defensive score.

So, in actuality, the A&M defense only gave up 20 points to the Tide.

Three weeks ago the Aggies opened SEC play with an overtime victory at Arkansas, and they followed that up with a 30-17 win over Mississippi State. They're averaging 37 points per game on the season. If it can come close to that figure this week, Texas A&M might not even need the points.

Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread

Mississippi started 4-0 this season, including that big upset of Alabama, but has lost two of its last three games. Last week the Rebels stepped out of conference and lost to an underrated Memphis outfit 37-24. Ole Miss led 14-0 early, allowed the Tigers to score the next 31 points of the game, pulled to within 31-24 heading into the fourth quarter but came up empty from there.

The Rebels piled up 480 yards of offense on the day as quarterback Chad Kelly produced his fifth 300-yard passing effort of the season. But the Ole Miss defense just didn't have an answer for Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch, who threw for 384 and three scores.

At 2-1 in SEC play, the Rebels sit in a tie for third place in the West Division with Texas A&M. But Ole Miss actually controls its own destiny; win out, starting Saturday and running through the home date with LSU November 21 and the Egg Bowl after that, and the Rebels will play in the SEC Championship Game.

Smart pick

Both teams are looking to bounce back from defeats last week, and it's easier to bounce back when you're at home and own the better defense. The smart money in this spot sides with Ole Miss.

Betting trends

Ole Miss is 3-0 ATS in its last three games against Texas A&M.

The total has gone under in Ole Miss' last seven games in October.

Texas A&M is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games on the road in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.