Auburn vs. Arkansas Complete Game Preview
One of the SEC's most underrated rivalries returns this Saturday as Auburn (4-2, 1-2 SEC) travels to face Arkansas (2-4, 1-2 SEC) in Fayetteville.
While these two West Division foes don't share much more than a division and a little bit of history, the rivalry aspect of this matchup stems from the two head coaches—Arkansas' Bret Bielema and Auburn's Gus Malzahn.
Bielema, who has been outspoken in his criticisms of uptempo football—like the one Malzahn's teams play—told a crowd at a booster club meeting it "probably doesn't need to be said in here how much I hate Auburn," per Brandon Marcello of AL.com.
Malzahn, an Arkansas native and former Razorbacks offensive coordinator, is still quite famous in his home state and has beaten Bielema in their previous two meetings, with the 2013 trip to Fayetteville causing quite a stir.
This season, their respective teams are a long way off from their high preseason expectations thanks to some dreadful starts to 2015. Both are no longer in the Associated Press Top 25 and have just one road win apiece against the SEC East heading into this weekend's matchup. It'll be another signature clash of styles Saturday as both teams fight for the win they need to keep their bowl dreams alive.
Before we break down Auburn vs. Arkansas—aka Malzahn vs. Bielema III—here is all the basic info you need to know.
Date: Saturday, October 24
Time: Noon ET (11 a.m. local time)
Location: Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas
TV: SEC Network
Line: Arkansas -5.5, according to Odds Shark
Auburn Keys to Victory
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Get out to another quick start
The first quarter of Auburn's tight 30-27 Thursday night win over Kentucky was a throwback to the offense's last two seasons under Gus Malzahn. Auburn hit the Wildcats for big plays downfield, converted crucial third-down situations and got on the scoreboard first for a change.
Although Auburn's great start eventually faded into a downright ugly third quarter, quarterback Sean White and the offense need a repeat performance in Fayetteville. Big plays are out there—Arkansas has allowed 8.58 yards per pass attempt in the first half this season.
Arkansas' offense is just not designed to come back quickly from an early deficit. If the Tigers can jump on the Razorbacks early and race out to a multi-score lead, they'll be in great shape for the rest of what will most likely turn into a grueling contest.
Slow down the Arkansas rushing attack
Auburn got an extremely bad break last Thursday night in what could have been one of its best rush-defense performances of the season. Cassanova McKinzy missed a sure tackle in the backfield in the first quarter, which led to a 60-yard run from Kentucky's Boom Williams that set up a touchdown.
Outside of that huge run by Williams, though, Auburn allowed 78 rushing yards on Kentucky's 32 other carries that evening. That would be the best yard-per-carry average this defense—ranked 102nd nationally in yards allowed on the ground—has for the entire season.
Now, Arkansas will provide a different type of test than what Auburn saw against Kentucky's rushing attack. The Razorbacks have a massive offensive line and will go with a traditional power-running look. LSU devastated Auburn's run defense with a similar style last season, and now it's time to see if the Tigers have improved at all in that category.
Win the turnover battle
Taking care of the football is always important in a conference road game, and the Tigers showed that last week against Kentucky. Auburn didn't commit a turnover, while Kentucky threw an interception to cornerback Carlton Davis in the end zone.
With Arkansas' emphasis on dominating the time of possession, Auburn must value its offensive drives even higher than usual this weekend. Turnovers will put an already-struggling Tigers defense in a tough position, and they'll place even more pressure on a transitioning offense with a redshirt freshman quarterback.
On the flip side, Auburn can snatch some much-needed momentum on the road by forcing turnovers. The defense has given up chunks of yardage all season, but it's also been able to post key takeaways during its previous four wins.
Arkansas Keys to Victory
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Keep those chains moving
In addition to Auburn's woeful statistics against the run this season, the Tigers have looked bad on third-down situations, ranking 112th nationally in that category. (Arkansas, surprisingly enough, is 111th.)
Auburn struggled on 3rd-and-long situations against Kentucky, but now it has to be worried about plays in the range of 3rd-and-short or 3rd-and-intermediate. Arkansas' rushing attack will take it right to this defense, looking to keep the clock and the chains moving on methodical touchdown drives.
The Razorbacks love to brutally wear down defenses, especially one with as many issues as Auburn. Converting on third-down opportunities will frustrate the Tigers and open up opportunities for Arkansas to break long plays toward the end of the game with up-and-down quarterback Brandon Allen.
Limit big plays downfield
Something is going to have to give when Auburn has the ball Saturday in Fayetteville. Arkansas has been prone to giving up some big plays this season, as its defense has allowed the second most plays of 30 or more yards in the SEC. Auburn, on the other hand, is second-worst nationally in plays of 20 or more yards—just ahead of winless UCF.
The Tigers were able to hit a few of those big plays downfield last Thursday against Kentucky, with senior wide receiver Ricardo Louis emerging as a new go-to target for White in the passing game. Auburn is still far from its usual best in explosiveness, but it created some momentum in Lexington.
Arkansas' run defense is quite strong at 15th in the country, so the main concern for the Razorbacks has to be what White can do after picking up the first SEC win of his career. While Auburn is no Texas Tech or Texas A&M in terms of passing, the Razorbacks have struggled with stopping long passes for much of 2015.
Tighten up on special teams
Close games can often come down to a few momentum-changing plays, and special teams units can be put on high alert if things get tight down the stretch.
Auburn holds an advantage in the kicking game over Arkansas, which is last in the SEC in punting and third-worst in field-goal percentage. The latter stat has played a role a few times this season in Arkansas' bad red-zone scoring percentage—the Razorbacks are only ahead of Old Dominion, Vanderbilt and Wyoming in that category this season.
Arkansas needs to make every trip to the red zone count against Auburn even if it means knocking down short field goals. Field position will also be crucial to how the Razorbacks want to play this game, putting an additional spotlight on punting. Bielema's team needs to show more in both categories.
Auburn Players to Watch
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QB Sean White
To the surprise of some in the media—including this writer—Auburn did not bench White last week for Jeremy Johnson, and the redshirt freshman played well in his first career road game.
White completed most of his passes against Kentucky, and while he is still searching for his first touchdown through the air, he is doing an excellent job of taking care of the football and leading Malzahn's offense in its most explosive performances of an otherwise quiet season.
Going on the road and winning back-to-back games against SEC opponents is a tough ask for a young quarterback, but White has shown he's capable of helping Auburn turn its season around with his arm. He'll have a ton of pressure on him this weekend as the Tigers look to hit the Arkansas pass defense for huge gains.
RB Kerryon Johnson
Expect to see more of true freshman running back Kerryon Johnson moving forward, especially with sophomore Roc Thomas continuing to deal with a nagging injury and highly touted JUCO signee Jovon Robinson seemingly falling off the face of the earth after a rough fall camp, per AL.com's Brandon Marcello.
Johnson has great speed and agility out of the backfield similar to Thomas, and he's already been trusted to take the snaps in a Wildcat package Auburn used five times against Kentucky. White can also rely on him to catch some passes too, as he has eight receptions for 70 yards this season.
The former Mr. Football winner for the state of Alabama is averaging nearly 30 yards per kick return this season, so his impact could be felt in the special teams game Saturday.
The linebackers
Arkansas' style of offense will place a lot of responsibility on Auburn's linebackers, who have struggled numerous times this season, to step up and make plays.
In addition to McKinzy, who is also getting plenty of snaps in his new pass-rushing role, Auburn has to see more out of Kris Frost, Justin Garrett and Tre' Williams. Frost and McKinzy came into the season as one of the most experienced linebacker duos in the country, but they haven't lived up to expectations.
If Auburn is able to contain the rushing attack of Arkansas, it's going to start with better performances from the linebacking corps. Sure tackling and rock-solid gap play will be vital to the Tigers' success away from home this weekend.
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Arkansas Players to Watch
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RB Alex Collins
Arkansas wasn't able to bring the one-two punch of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams into the 2015 season after the latter star's injury, but Collins is doing a fantastic job of leading the Razorbacks on the ground by himself. Collins is averaging five yards per carry this season and scored a touchdown in every game except for the Hogs' most recent loss to Alabama.
"He is a very good one," Malzahn said of Collins on Tiger Talk (h/t Wesley Sinor of AL.com). "He's very explosive, he's fast, he can hit the hole, he can make things bounce. He can hit anywhere on the field and that's really something special that a running back has. I his think speed to get to the perimeter is really something too."
Collins will be the unquestioned key player in the Arkansas offense this Saturday, and he has the ability to break away for huge gains after wearing down the defense with tough, shorter runs.
The offensive linemen
Paving the way for Collins and the rest of the Arkansas offense is the biggest offensive line in football, per Best of Arkansas Sports. No, that's not just college football—football in general. There aren't any NFL teams that have a line quite like the Razorbacks.
At an average weight of 328 pounds, Arkansas' offensive linemen will have a size advantage on any team they face, and they're the perfect fits for Bielema's ground-and-pound offense. After all, it's quite difficult to get a solid push up front against players who are that large and physical.
Arkansas' high emphasis on offensive line play has turned into proven results on the field. The Razorbacks have allowed the seventh-fewest sacks and the fourth-fewest tackles for loss of any team in college football. Experienced, tough and massive, this front five has MVP potential in this matchup.
DB Henre' Toliver
When Auburn goes to the air against the Arkansas defense, keep an eye on cornerback Henre' Toliver, who leads the team in pass breakups and ranks second among Arkansas defensive backs in total tackles.
The starting nickelback has made some great plays this season, including an excellent interception during the season opener against UTEP. He was also the man Texas A&M wide receiver Christian Kirk beat for a game-winning touchdown in overtime a few weeks ago.
Toliver is a busy man in the Arkansas secondary, as evidenced by his statistics so far this season. The Razorbacks could use a huge game from him Saturday as they look to turn things around in pass defense for the second half of the regular season.
What They're Saying
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Auburn
Head coach Gus Malzahn to Tiger Talk on his team as it heads into Arkansas (h/t Phillip Marshall of Auburn Undercover): "We are improving. You can see it in practice. You can see it in our guys’ demeanor. We’re 2-0 in October. That’s kind of what we did. We said let’s put the first month behind. We talked about having a great opportunity to improve each game. We need to do it on Saturdays."
Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee on Auburn's offensive line, per Tom Green of the Opelika-Auburn News: "We’ve been doing some things really good. I just think they are making a slow, steady progression as we are. They’re doing a good job of all being on the same page. ... We’re just going to have to be real physical and real tough and dirty like Auburn likes it the rest of the way."
Linebacker Tre' Williams on facing a physical team like Arkansas, per Wesley Sinor of AL.com:
"As a linebacker, you have to enjoy contact. With Arkansas, you're going to come out of this game pretty sore. You have to get your mind right from Day 1. We knew what we were getting into ever since the beginning of the season... It's going to be a big one and it's a must-win, so we're going to do whatever we can do to get that W.
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Arkansas
Head coach Bret Bielema on Auburn, per Brandon Marcello of AL.com:
"As you become acquainted with the Arkansas fan base and everything else, I think everybody always wants to beat certain teams and I probably hear it more about that game than anything. It's kind of unusual to me because obviously I know the history of Gus and he coached here and all that stuff. There's a lot of their coaches on that roster but more than that it goes back to recruiting, even though we really don't recruit against them a whole lot.
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Bielema on where Arkansas stands right now, per Kurt Voigt of the Associated Press (via NWAOnline.com): "I saw what this team did a year ago, and I see a lot of those same things coming to phase in front of us. I know it's not where everybody wants to be at the right time, but the fact of the matter is that's what reality gives us right now until get a little bit better depth."
Defensive coordinator Robb Smith on linebacker Brooks Ellis, per Bob Holt of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette:
"It starts with he had a great week of practice. I thought he was really in tune with a lot of things that Alabama did and it showed up on the field. He played very well not only in the interior of our defense, but he got out in space a couple of times and made some plays there as well. I think he's starting to come on as a middle linebacker, and I'm excited to see what he can do down the stretch for us.
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Prediction
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Records can be deceiving, and this matchup is perfect proof of that. Auburn has a better record than Arkansas. But the 2-4 Razorbacks opened as four-point favorites on Odds Shark, and that number is climbing.
Why? Well, Arkansas has seemed to bounce back after two bad losses to Toledo and Texas Tech by taking a great Texas A&M team to overtime away from home, beating Tennessee in Knoxville and hanging with Alabama for most of the game two weeks ago. That, plus the home-field advantage, gives the Razorbacks the upper hand.
Auburn answered the call last week by taking a must-win game away from home and showing some offensive sparks in the process. White was a difference-maker in Lexington, and he'll have to be one this weekend against a defense that has been tough on the run but rough-looking through the air.
Both teams have plenty of issues, but the matchup favors an Arkansas offense that should be able to wear down the Auburn defense in the second half. Can Auburn open up a big lead and avoid the mid-game offensive lull long enough to hold off the Razorbacks?
I'm fully aware I'm against the common thought here, but this game is going to have quite a bit of scoring on both sides. Both defenses have issues with giving up big-time yardage—Arkansas through the air, Auburn on the ground—and Bielema will pull out some surprises to get quick points. In the end, Auburn's defense will run out of gas against a more physical team as Bielema finally gets his first win over Malzahn.
Prediction: Arkansas 34, Auburn 30
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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