Why Nico Rosberg Is the Driver to Watch at the 2015 U.S. Grand Prix
The destination of the 2015 Formula One Drivers' Championship could be decided at the forthcoming United States Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton's victory in Sochi means he needs an absolute maximum of 34 points from the final four races to be sure of a deserved third world title.
But he could well wrap things up in Austin, Texas, if results go his way. The form book says he will, and there's no doubt Hamilton would love to be crowned in the U.S., a country in which he spends more than the occasional weekend off.
Sebastian Vettel and Nico Rosberg are the only drivers still in with a mathematical chance of stopping Hamilton emulating his idol Ayrton Senna, but the odds are massively against them. Vettel is 66 points down with 100 left to play for, while Rosberg's deficit is 73 points.
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Unless something truly bizarre happens, neither man will bridge his respective gap. Realistically, all they can do is try to ensure the gulf is as narrow as possible when the chequered flag falls at the end of the final race of the year.
For Vettel, it doesn't really matter if he ends up 50 or 150 points down. After being embarrassed by rising star Daniel Ricciardo in 2014, the four-time world champion has rebuilt his reputation and confidence in his first year at Ferrari.
No one expected him to be anywhere near the title hunt with four races to go. Whatever happens between now and Abu Dhabi, he'll go into 2016 believing that—if Ferrari can build a good enough car—he is capable of fighting for a fifth championship.
But Rosberg is in a different boat entirely.
The man who took the title fight all the way down to the final race of 2014 has not been the same driver this time around. Whether it's down to a lack of self-confidence, a lack of belief in the car or something else, he isn't nailing qualifying laps like he did last season, and he seldom gets a sniff in the races.
If Hamilton leads into the first corner, it's usually race over—no one expects Rosberg to challenge, and he rarely has. There has been only one occasion in 2015 where it looked like Rosberg might actually overtake his team-mate, and that was scuppered by the British weather in the closing laps at Silverstone.
But if Hamilton is behind Rosberg? On the rare occasions that happens, there's always a sense of anticipation that we might actually get a proper race. Hamilton is the better driver, he's the better overtaker and he can do what Rosberg cannot.
Chances are, Rosberg believes it just as much as we do. He has to change that—and the Circuit of the Americas is the perfect place to start.
Rosberg has been on pole at the last two races, and COTA was the scene of one of his best one-lap displays of 2014. Under pressure, he hooked up almost every corner beautifully to beat Hamilton to pole by a comfortable four-tenths of a second.
The pressure is perhaps lower this time around, but Rosberg needs to pull out the same sort of lap to give himself the best possible chance of doing something he has only achieved twice in 2015—beating Hamilton in a straight fight.
And just as importantly, doing so at a track where he was cleanly overtaken by his team-mate in 2014.
Of course, as discussed above, even if he does win, Rosberg probably isn't going to take the title. His chances would still rest on Hamilton suffering a catastrophic string of results including at least two retirements and—realistically—two races off the podium.
A Rosberg victory in the U.S. would do nothing more than delay the inevitable as far as 2015 is concerned.
But how he fares in the final races of this season—starting on Sunday—will have a massive impact on how he approaches 2016.
Speaking to Autosport's Ian Parkes after the Russian Grand Prix, Mercedes executive director Toto Wolff suggested Rosberg's focus would switch after he fell 73 points behind:
"I'm gutted for him, but he's going to recover.
It takes my head off how he handles the situation, staying calm and trying to recover.
These boys have been in motor racing all their life. They have won races and lost races, won titles and lost titles.
The reason why they are here is because they are strong characters and strong personalities.
As gutted as he might be now, he's realising he's going to switch on to 2016 mode and try to bounce back next year.
"
Of course, Rosberg would like to win the 2015 title, but regardless of whether he does or doesn't, Wolff's words make perfect sense. Whatever happens between now and the chequered flag falling in Abu Dhabi, Rosberg needs to head into 2016 with two things very clear in his mind.
First, he has to believe he can beat Hamilton in a straight fight. And second, he needs Hamilton to believe that he can be beaten.
If Rosberg heads into the winter on the back of a 100-plus-point defeat and having won just three or four races to Hamilton's 12 or 13, he'll be pushed even further—having already made a start—down the route taken by Mark Webber after he lost out to Sebastian Vettel in 2010.
That was the final year that the two were together in which Webber looked to have the pace to challenge; from 2011 onward, it was all one-way traffic as Vettel reeled off the titles.
A similar pattern has been repeated, to a lesser extent, between Hamilton and Rosberg. In 2014, the German was at the very least able to stay within touching distance of his rival; in 2015, the performance gap has widened.
And if Rosberg's 2015 season ends with a whimper, there will be no way back. Psychologically he's already down; that would put him well and truly out.
But if he can close out the year by beating Hamilton at least twice in the remaining four races, he'll be able to approach 2016 with a bit of a spring in his step.
Yes, the likelihood is that he'll still have been heavily beaten, but he'd have two, three or maybe even four strong, recent memories of coming out on top.
And, championship trophy or not, Hamilton's most recent memories would be of Rosberg standing on the top step of the podium.
So over to you, Nico. Blazing rocket or damp squib—what's it going to be?
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