College Football Rankings 2015: Hits and Misses from the Week 8 Polls
Finally, clarity.
Well, some clarity. In a sport like college football, maybe that's the most we could realistically ask for at this point.
With the halfway point of the season officially here, the landscape is starting to come together. Playoff-caliber teams are emerging from the pack, and the list of likely playoff candidates has shrunk to somewhere between 10 and 15 teams. That's progress.
Still, caught in the intersection is the timeless question about polling: Do you rank teams based on what they've done or what they look like? Or both?
It's time to find out and peruse all the latest trends by evaluating the recent USA Today coaches poll and the Associated Press Top 25.
Where did pollsters get it right? Where did they swing and miss? We give our two cents in the following slides based not only on Saturday's action but also on what has transpired so far this season.
Hit: Memphis
1 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: T-No. 17 (previously No. 22)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 18 (previously NR)
Welcome to the playoff conversation, Memphis. Who knows if you'll actually make it to college football's Final Four, but you make the race far more interesting.
After handling—yes, handling—Ole Miss 37-24, the Tigers are now a consensus Top 25 team. The Rebels may be sliding, but it's not wrong to say it's the best win for Memphis in a long, long time. It's also a huge boost for the American Athletic Conference. Commissioner Mike Aresco told Dan Wolken of USA Today it was "maybe our most significant win ever."
Though Memphis made a statement by beating Ole Miss, the Tigers' schedule actually gets tougher in the month of November. Memphis will face Navy, Houston and Temple in consecutive weeks, with the latter two contests on the road, before closing the regular season at home against SMU.
The Tigers are a lot of fun to watch, and college football deserves a Cinderella a la the Boise State teams from the late 2000s. With some undefeated squads still to play one another, Memphis will have opportunities to make more leaps.
Miss: Florida
2 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 14 (previously No. 11)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 13 (previously No. 8)
If you've read "Hits and Misses" consistently this year, you know the vibe around here is not to punish teams that lose close games against quality opponents. Florida falls into that category.
You never want to pin a win or loss on one play, but LSU's fake field goal ended up being the difference in a 35-28 win over the Gators. As Florida head coach Jim McElwain said, Matt Baker of the Tampa Bay Times, "They've got to fake one to beat us."
Still, the Gators, who started a second-string quarterback on the road and faced perhaps college football's best player in Tigers running back Leonard Fournette, had a chance to win.
Florida didn't drop that far down the polls—just three and five spots in the coaches poll and AP, respectively—but you could argue the Gators have a better win (Ole Miss) than undefeated Iowa and Florida State, both of which are ranked higher.
Hit: Stanford
3 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 11 (previously No. 16)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 10 (previously No. 15)
At the risk of mass ridicule, which actually isn't that different from any other day, I'm going all-in with Stanford.
The comparisons between the Cardinal this year and Ohio State last year are beginning to make the rounds. It's a tricky one—no one's confusing Stanford for Ohio State, per se—but there are some similarities. Both suffered surprising early-season losses before going on a roll.
Whether Stanford will win out like the Buckeyes did in 2014 remains to be seen, but the Cardinal are playing excellent football right now. For the second straight week, Stanford scored at least 50 points in a game. That's when pollsters have to make a decision: eye test or resume?
The latter could come in time. While it doesn't get Utah in the regular season, Stanford can end the year on a strong note with wins over Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame. Add in a victory over the Pac-12 South champion, presumably the Utes, and the Cardinal could be impossible to ignore.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Miss: Clemson
4 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 6 (previously No. 6)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 6 (previously No. 5)
Maybe it's that there are a wealth of undefeated teams—14 to be exact—and, ultimately, only four meaningful spots. But it just feels wrong to have Clemson out of the Top Four at this time.
If this sounds like a broken record argument, it's because it is. The reasoning stands, though. The Tigers have a quality win against Notre Dame, which looks better and better with each passing week, and have taken care of their business elsewhere; only Louisville and the Irish have come within single digits. You could argue the Notre Dame win alone is better than anything Ohio State, Baylor or TCU has done.
At least one media member—George Schroeder of USA Today—would have Clemson in the playoff. The big thing is the Tigers still have to play Florida State. Since the Seminoles are undefeated as well, that would give Clemson another huge win should the program pull it off.
The Tigers have plenty of time to prove their case. Being ranked sixth isn't nearly as egregious as being a fringe Top 10 team. But it seems like there should be more love for what Clemson has done.
Hit: Michigan
5 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: T-No. 17 (previously No. 14)
Associated Press Top 25: T-No. 15 (previously No. 12)
It's the next day. I've had a full night to sleep on things. Yet, I still can't believe what happened in Saturday's game between Michigan and Michigan State. If, somehow, you missed it, watch the video here. It's likely the wildest thing we'll see this season—and perhaps for years to come.
If you're a pollster, what do you do about that? In a matter of 10 seconds, the Wolverines went from a legitimate challenger to Ohio State in the Big Ten East to seeing their playoff hopes probably dashed for good. College football is cruel like that, but Sunday rankings don't always have to mirror that.
Thankfully, that didn't happen here. Sure, Michigan fell three spots in each poll. That's going to happen. But generally, voters seemed to recognize how close the Wolverines came to pulling off the win. In fact, neither poll moved the Spartans at all.
There shouldn't be a big gap between Michigan State and Michigan, but the Spartans are ranked 13 spots higher than the Wolverines in the coaches poll. If there's one complaint, it's that.
Miss: TCU
6 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 3 (previously No. 3)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 4 (previously No. 3)
Say this for Baylor: Its schedule may not be the most difficult, but at least it's not leaving anything to doubt. The Bears are averaging 63.8 points per game and beating opponents by an average of 39 points per game.
TCU? Well, it's been a tale of two stadiums. At home, the Frogs are outscoring opponents by nearly 42 points per game. On the road, that number shrinks to 10 points.
Granted, they have had some tough road games: Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State. Even Saturday's road trip to Ames, Iowa, was scary (Ames is known to be a Twilight Zone for opponents). In that sense, TCU is battled-tested. But following the Frogs has been almost like watching two different teams.
Based on all that, having TCU in the Top Four seems like it's a result of preseason hype rather than what's actually happened. The quarterback-wide receiver combo of Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson is practically unstoppable. But the Frogs' injuries on both sides of the ball have been a problem.
TCU will have a chance to showcase its best work late in the year, though. In November, the Frogs visit Oklahoma State and Oklahoma before hosting Baylor in their regular-season finale.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
