Texans vs. Jaguars: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

Get the ball into the hands of DeAndre Hopkins early and often.

The Texans can't afford to approach this game with a pass-first strategy for all four quarters, but they should pass the ball early to get their best playmaker involved and hopefully back off the defense enough to set up the running game.

Hopkins is on pace for a huge statistical season and would be a guarantee to make his first Pro Bowl or even All-Pro roster if he keeps up this level of play.

At his current pace, Hopkins will finish the season with 134 receptions, 1,849 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

The likelihood of Hopkins reaching those eye-popping stats is obviously small, but it does illustrate just how great of a season he's currently having.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

While looking at the splits on Hopkins' stats to prepare for the preview article earlier this week, I noticed that the majority of his numbers had been piled up during the second half and/or when the Texans trailed the opposition.

What also stood out was the down in which Hopkins has done most of his damage.

On first-down plays this season, Hopkins has 16 receptions for 267 yards; both are his highest totals for any down. Of his 16 receptions on first down, 12 of those have gone for a first down.

A similar pattern can be found on the splits for his starting quarterback this week.

For his career, Brian Hoyer has a higher completion percentage, a better quarterback rating and is averaging more yards per attempt on first down than third down.

Third-down play-calling is typically more predictable, which is likely why their numbers are better on first down.

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On 3rd-and-2 or less, the defense knows a run is most likely coming, while anything over three or four yards to go is almost always a pass. By comparison, the offense can pretty much call anything on first down with two more downs available if that play doesn't work.

The Texans don't have overwhelming talent on offense, so they could use an element of surprise in their attack.

Passing in situations where the defense expects them to run the ball would be a good first step to achieve that goal.

If they have enough success doing that, then the Jaguars will probably put in an extra defensive back or take a safety out of the box to match up, which would then open up lanes for Arian Foster and the running game.

Defensive Game Plan

The Texans have to get pressure on Blake Bortles any way they can—even if that includes more blitzing than normal.

Going into the season, many probably hoped the play of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney would allow the team to get pressure without blitzing, but that hasn't been the case this year.

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For the season, the Texans rank 30th in sacks with just six through five games. To make matters worse, an injury to Clowney, who leads the team in quarterback hurries, per Pro Football Focus, will keep him out of this week's game at Jacksonville.

Bortles has played better this season, but not surprisingly, as a young quarterback, he still struggles when facing pressure.

According to Pro Football Focus, Bortles ranks 27th in completion percentage while under pressure at 42.1 percent.

Some veteran quarterbacks thrive under pressure by quickly getting the ball to their hot receiver or exploiting the pressure by throwing to the area the extra defender came from, but Bortles isn't at that point yet.

	Completion Percentage	Yards Per Attempt	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Quarterback Rating
No Pressure	63.6	7.3	9	2	101.9
Facing Pressure	42.1	5.9	1	2	53.0

The Texans can't afford to bring six or seven very often with their struggles in coverage, but defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel should mix up how he tries to get pressure with more stunts and zone blitzes.

If the Texans pass-rushers aren't able to beat their man one-on-one, then trying to confuse the Jaguars' offensive line with outside guys looping in on stunts or dropping linemen out in coverage with a safety blitzing in that gap could get the job done.

Key Players and Matchups

Be Careful When Throwing at Davon House

Davon House ranks third in the league in lowest percentage of receptions completed on passes thrown into his coverage at 41.7 percent this season, according to PFF. The Jaguars corner has also held opposing quarterbacks to a QB rating of 57.1, which ranks 13th best in the league.

Teammate Dwayne Gratz has played considerably fewer snaps than House (305 to 129) but also ranks well in those two stats with a quarterback rating of 52.7 and a 42.9 completion percentage on passes thrown his way.

Hoyer should trust Hopkins enough to throw a few jump balls his way, but he will need to be careful against the corners of the Jaguars.

Covering Allen Robinson

The Jaguars have a pair of tall wide receivers who could cause the Texans secondary problems, but Allen Robinson in particular is a big concern.

Robinson ranks ninth this season in PFF's wide receiver rating—the rating quarterbacks have when throwing them the ball—ahead of several more famous names such as Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton.

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Robinson and teammate Allen Hurns are both 6'3", which can cause problems for any secondary, but both Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are under 6'0", so they'll have their hands full.

The trio of Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy—who are all 6'2" or taller—caught six passes for 129 yards against the Texans' smaller corners on passes 15 yards or deeper during their Week 3 game.

Joseph made several plays during that game as well with five passes defensed, but the coaching staff shouldn't be afraid to drop a linebacker or safety underneath the routes of Robinson or Hurns in obvious passing situations.

Prediction

With a combined record of 2-8, both teams clearly have many flaws.

The play of the Texans defense through five games hasn't inspired much confidence, but of the two units that will be on the field this Sunday, the Texans' group looks more capable of making a game-changing play.

Through five games, the Jaguars rank 31st in points allowed per game, 25th in opponents quarterback rating, 25th in rushing touchdowns allowed, 32nd in opponents' third-down conversion percentage at 50 percent and are last in the league in interceptions with just one for the entire season.

This could be an ugly, low-scoring game, but at this point, the Texans will take a win any way they can get one. 

Final Score: Texans 20, Jaguars 17

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.