The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 76
Update
Due to a concussion suffered by Joseph Duffy, doctors have not cleared him to fight on Saturday, and his bout with Dustin Poirier has been called off. The UFC's statement on the matter can be found here.
The UFC thinks it may have found the next Conor McGregor in the last man to defeat its Irish superstar. Joseph Duffy is Irish but hails from Donegal by way of Wales rather than the island nation's metropolis of Dublin. He's soft-spoken by any standard but especially compared to the brash and rarely silent McGregor.
Duffy is also an exceptionally talented young fighter. He's 27 years old and in his prime, and he has racked up four consecutive finishes since returning to MMA from a three-year stint in professional boxing. With a win here, the Irishman could become a major factor in a market that's suddenly become a hot and lucrative one for the world's biggest promotion.
Dustin Poirier will be Duffy's opponent in his Irish homecoming, which takes place Saturday afternoon on the UFC's Fight Pass platform. The American has been on a great run since moving up to lightweight, racking up a pair of impressive knockout victories, and he represents a massive step up in competition for Duffy.
The main event of Duffy vs. Poirier is a crackling scrap. The card loses much of its luster after that, particularly since an injury to Stipe Miocic robbed it of its co-main event. Instead, the second fight will feature Irishman Paddy Holohan against Hawaii's Louis Smolka in a solid but hardly can't-miss flyweight matchup.
Northern Ireland's Norman Parke takes on Sweden's Reza Madadi, who returns from an absence of several years due to a stint in prison. Talented prospects Nicolas Dalby and Darren Till clash in the main card opener in what promises to be an outstanding fight.
The prelims include talented prospect Tom Breese in a bout against Ireland's Cathal Pendred and a promising women's strawweight matchup between Aisling Daly and Ericka Almeida, but the early fights are otherwise not terribly promising.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Prelims
1 of 5
Middleweights
Bubba Bush (8-2, 1 N/C; 1 N/C UFC) vs. Garreth McLellan (12-3; 0-1 UFC)
Texas' Bush returns to action for the first time in more than a year and draws South Africa's McLellan in the evening's curtain-jerker. Kevin Casey viciously finished Bush in just over a minute in his promotional debut in July 2014, but Casey then tested positive for anabolic steroids. McLellan debuted against Bartosz Fabinski in April and lost a decision.
The American is a physical specimen with great speed, power and athleticism. A defensively porous striker, he punches his way into the clinch or a takedown attempt, gets the fight to the mat and then goes to work with heavy punches and smooth passes.
McLellan is big and physical and does most of his work in the clinch, but the rest of his skills are subpar.
Both fighters prefer to operate in the clinch, and this profiles as a grinding bout that favors the American's greater physicality and skill. Eventually Bush will secure a takedown, pass and get the finish. The pick is Bush by submission in the second round.
Featherweights
Darren Elkins (18-5; 8-4 UFC) vs. Robert Whiteford (12-2; 2-1 UFC)
The veteran Elkins makes his 13th appearance in the UFC, drawing Scotland's Robert Whiteford in a potentially entertaining featherweight bout. The American has alternated wins and losses in his last five, dropping a decision to Hacran Dias after taking a close win over Lucas Martins. Whiteford has won two in a row—the most recent a knockout win over Paul Redmond in July.
Elkins is a grinder, pure and simple. He's a willing if awkward striker who can fire off combinations and take a great punch, but the core of his game is chaining shot takedowns and trips against the fence and maintaining control from the top if he succeeds. Whiteford has a background in judo and has a slick arsenal of clinch takedowns and strong control, along with potent southpaw combination punching.
This is a tough fight to call, but Whiteford's strong clinch game, fence work and willingness to throw hard combinations should be the difference if he can stuff Elkins' chain-wrestling and control the pace. The pick is Whiteford by decision.
Welterweights
Cathal Pendred (17-3-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Tom Breese (8-0; 1-0 UFC)
Blue-chip prospect Breese draws Ireland's Pendred in a solid welterweight clash. Breese, a native of England who now trains under Firas Zahabi in Montreal, is one of the most promising up-and-comers in the division. Pendred started his UFC career with four wins, some of them controversial, and John Howard ended that streak at UFC 189 in July.
Breese stands an enormous 6'3" and puts his size and leverage to good use with a potent clinch game that consists of trips, knee taps, and vicious knees. He's a solid striker as well, with strong left kicks and straight lefts from the southpaw stance, plus he owns a dangerous top game.
The Irishman, by contrast, is a glacially slow grinder who relies on clinch control against the fence, chained takedowns and uneventful work on top.
This is Breese's fight to lose. He has a lot left to learn, particularly as a striker, but his natural gifts, great coaching and consistent improvement should give him a substantial edge. The pick is Breese by decision.
Middleweights
Scott Askham (13-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (15-1; 2-1 UFC)
England's Askham meets Poland's Jotko in an intriguing matchup of young middleweights. The Englishman knocked out Antonio dos Santos after dropping a decision to Magnus Cedenblad in his debut, while Jotko followed his own defeat to Cedenblad with a win over Tor Troeng last October.
The clinch is Askham's strongest area, where his 6'3" height gives him great leverage. His knees are lethal, and he complements them with trips and throws. At range, the southpaw slings punch-kick combinations at a good clip, but he has occasionally struggled to defend takedowns. Jotko is an aggressive southpaw striker with nice combinations, excellent defensive wrestling and a strong clinch game of his own.
This is a razor-thin fight between a pair of similar fighters. Both are southpaws who are better in the clinch than at range and have solid ancillary wrestling and grappling skills, but Askham is more dangerous and dynamic. The pick is Askham by tight decision.
Women's Strawweights
Aisling Daly (15-6; 1-1 UFC) vs. Ericka Almeida (7-1; 0-1 UFC)
Brazil's Almeida gets a tough draw in Dublin in hometown fighter Aisling Daly. The Irishwoman participated in The Ultimate Fighter 20 tournament and defeated Alex Chambers before dropping a decision to Randa Markos. Almeida was a hyped prospect prior to entering the UFC but lost an uncompetitive decision to Juliana Lima in her debut.
Daly fights with a strange, offbeat rhythm, weaving her way forward with odd footwork and sneaky punching combinations. From there she looks for trips or throws in the clinch, and she does her best work while hunting for submissions on the mat.
Almeida is an aggressive and dangerous grappler who does an excellent job of punching her way into the clinch and takedown attempts, and she isn't afraid to jump on submission attempts.
If the Brazilian were more experienced, she'd have a good shot in a stylistic matchup that suits her fairly well. However, Daly's experience, greater striking acumen and ability to survive tough spots on the mat should be the difference. The pick is Daly by decision.
Flyweights
Neil Seery (15-11; 2-2 UFC) vs. Jon Delos Reyes (8-4; 1-2 UFC)
The 36-year-old Irishman Seery has outperformed expectations in his four-fight run in the UFC, stringing together a pair of solid wins before dropping a decision to Louis Smolka in July. He draws Guam's Delos Reyes, who got on the board with a win over Roldan Sangcha-an in May following a pair of losses.
Seery is a boxer by trade and a pretty good one. He slings crisp if not overly powerful combinations from both stances, mixes in the occasional takedown and is quite competent on the mat. Delos Reyes is a physical specimen with elite athleticism and power, but he lacks a wrestling game and acumen on the mat.
This seems fairly straightforward: Either Delos Reyes will overwhelm Seery with his physicality, or the more experienced and skilled Irishman will take over after a rough early spot. The latter seems more likely, and the pick is Seery by submission in the second round in a strong contender for Fight of the Night.
Lightweights
Steven Ray (18-5; 2-0 UFC) vs. Mickael Lebout (14-4-1, 1 N/C; 1-1 UFC)
Scotland's Steven Ray returns to action close to home against France's Lebout in what should be an entertaining lightweight clash. Ray debuted on short notice with a convincing win over Marcin Bandel and followed that up with a huge knockout win over Leonardo Mafra in front of the Scottish fans in July. Lebout fought on the same two cards, losing his debut and then beating Teemu Packalen.
Ray is big, athletic, powerful and quite fast, and the southpaw game is built around his physical gifts. He has a potent counter right hook and a nice left kick and has improved his combination work. Wrestling, clinch fighting and grappling are his real strengths, though, and he has an aggressive submission game on the mat.
Lebout isn't a great athlete, but he is a durable and well-rounded grinder. He wrestles well, scrambles nicely and puts together solid combinations on the feet. Pace and output are his strong suits, and he doesn't seem to get tired.
It's somewhat surprising that the betting odds—Ray currently sits at minus-550, per Odds Shark—are so wide. Lebout is tricky and difficult to finish, and he could easily outwork or catch Ray in a submission. The more likely scenario, however, involves the more athletic Scotsman landing big shots, staying out of trouble and taking a decision.
Nicolas Dalby vs. Darren Till
2 of 5
Welterweights
Nicolas Dalby (14-0; 1-0 UFC) vs. Darren Till (13-0; 1-0 UFC)
Aside from the main event, this is the odds-on favorite for Fight of the Night. Denmark's Dalby was the welterweight champion in the Cage Warriors organization in Europe and won an exciting, back-and-forth UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Till, an Englishman who now resides in Brazil, is only 22 years old and won his first UFC outing against Wendell Oliveira by devastating knockout.
This is a great stylistic matchup, and the winner will have an inside track toward the exciting action fights at the top of the stacked welterweight division.
Till is a big, athletic southpaw with a deep striking background and an increasingly well-rounded game. On the feet, where he prefers to operate, the southpaw relies on the lethal pairing of his left kick and left straight. He cracks away with the kick to the legs, body and head, beating up the opponent's legs and forearms while freezing his head in place where the quick and piercing straight can repeatedly find it.
This is a dangerous and highly effective combination. The only problems are that he throws little off the right side and that he occasionally falls into a lull of inactivity.
The rest of Till's game is coming along nicely. He hits the occasional well-timed takedown, preferring trips, and can do a ton of damage with strikes from top position when he postures up. Submissions aren't his strong suit, and his takedown defense could use some work, but both are improving markedly.
Dalby is older (30) and has a great deal of experience against solid regional competition. He is a striker by trade, but the rest of his game is developing enough to offer solid secondary options.
The Dane does his best work at range. Snapping kicks follow smooth punching combinations as Dalby darts in and out of range, and he rarely sticks around long enough to get caught in an exchange. Volume is the name of the game, and the constant barrage of kicks to the legs and body serves to wear down his opponent over the course of the fight.
Well-timed takedowns complement Dalby's potent striking game. He has a beautiful reactive double-leg as his opponents commit to their strikes, and the Dane can also hit a variety of singles and body-lock trips against the cage. He is not a terribly clean finisher, however, and he offers little from top position aside from control.
Betting Odds
Dalby -135, Till +105
Prediction
This is yet another close fight. The basic dynamic pits Till's more powerful southpaw arsenal against Dalby's high-output, in-and-out attack with the possibility that either man might work a takedown or two. Till is making consistent improvements and has greater upside, but Dalby has shown the ability to execute excellent game plans and to work around his opponents' weaknesses.
In that scenario, the Dane's volume and well-timed takedowns seem marginally more likely to come out on top. It's a coin flip, but the pick is Dalby by tight decision.
Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi
3 of 5
Lightweights
Norman Parke (20-4-1; 4-2-1 UFC) vs. Reza Madadi (13-3; 2-1 UFC)
Following a 14-month stint in prison for aggravated robbery, Sweden's Madadi returns to action for the first time since April 2013, when he finished current contender Michael Johnson. He draws Parke, the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes, who has lost consecutive fights to Gleison Tibau and Francisco Trinaldo since starting his UFC career unbeaten in five outings.
For Parke, a native of Northern Ireland, this fight represents a chance to get his once-promising career back on track, while Madadi risks being cut from the promotion with a loss, given his checkered legal history.
Parke's game is based around the idea of being either all the way outside or all the way inside. The southpaw works behind a nice one-two and a steady diet of slapping kicks, but he lacks power, doesn't have great striking fundamentals and relies more on volume and movement than a particularly dangerous arsenal. While he is rarely there to be hit, he relies entirely on footwork and a static high guard for defense.
If he can't keep his opponent outside on the end of his rangy strikes, Parke is more than happy to step into the clinch. A decorated judo practitioner, he is at his best working trips and throws on the inside or simply grinding against the fence. He has excellent timing on his shot takedowns, and showcases a clean double and a single that he finishes beautifully.
On the mat, Parke is a grinder. While he passes and controls well, he has little finishing ability with his strikes or submissions and is much more concerned with maintaining position than trying to end the fight.
Madadi is a wrestler first and foremost. He can sling some leather at range and packs good power, but he barely throws any volume and rarely works in combination.
Instead, Madadi's strikes mainly serve to cover the entries on his takedowns. He times them well, takes excellent angles and finishes cleanly. Singles, doubles, trips and knee taps come together in slick, highly technical chains.
The Swede's wrestling blends together beautifully with his grappling game. He has a strong front headlock and uses that to secure a variety of chokes, including guillotines and d'Arces, and he has an outstanding move to the back. His ground striking and top control are not terribly special, but they can force the kinds of scrambles in which he's most comfortable.
Betting Odds
Parke -280, Madadi +240
Prediction
Despite Parke's recent struggles, it's hard to justify a pick for Madadi here. The Swede is 37 years old, hasn't fought in 30 months and spent 14 of those months in prison, where he wasn't exactly getting top-notch MMA training.
Leaving all of that aside and looking at this purely as a matchup, it still favors Parke. The Northern Ireland native is difficult to take down, strong in the clinch and throws good volume at range. Madadi, meanwhile, isn't a high-output fighter and depends on his takedowns.
This is unlikely to be an exciting fight, but Parke should be able to keep Madadi outside, stuff his takedowns and work some top control of his own. The pick is Parke by decision.
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Paddy Holohan vs. Louis Smolka
4 of 5
Flyweights
Paddy Holohan (12-1-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Louis Smolka (9-1; 3-1 UFC)
Ireland meets Hawaii as Dublin native Holohan takes on Smolka in an excellent matchup at 125 pounds. Holohan has won two in a row since a huge upset loss to the debuting Chris Kelades last October. The Hawaiian has likewise won a pair of fights since his last loss; the most recent was a decision over Irishman Neil Seery in July.
The winner will be situated for a run at the top of the thin and wide-open flyweight division.
Holohan is an enormous flyweight at 5'9", and he uses that height fairly well. At range he likes to work behind a snapping front kick to the body and a steady diet of round kicks; when he finds his rhythm, he can be a dangerous, high-output combination striker, but that happens only rarely.
The Irishman does a good job of setting up his takedowns with strikes and timing his shots as counters, but he isn't a clean finisher and has a limited arsenal of wrestling technique. The clinch is a stronger point, with decent knees and trips, but he isn't as imposing there as his height might imply.
The ground is Holohan's world. He's great on top, with a nice arsenal of passes, surprisingly powerful ground strikes and a threatening submission repertoire. His guard, however, frankly isn't as good as he thinks it is. He's far too willing to give up top position for submissions, particularly his triangle choke.
Like Holohan, Smolka is enormous for the division and likewise clocks in at 5'9". His game in all phases revolves around pace and constant activity; he makes it impossible for opponents to take a break or find breathing room.
A solid technical striker, the Hawaiian slings a great volume of head-body punching combinations and mixes in a steady diet of round, front and side kicks. While not particularly powerful, he's perfectly willing to hang in the pocket and exchange, and he places his shots beautifully. He doesn't connect his punches and kicks particularly well, however, and he is far too hittable for comfort.
Smolka does great work in the clinch. He has a background in judo and owns a nice arsenal of trips and throws, all of which he mixes nicely with sharp knees. His takedown defense is somewhat lacking, though, and he relies on his ability to scramble more than real acumen in stuffing his opponents' shots.
Transitions are the Hawaiian's specialty on the mat, and he's difficult to hold down. He does great work from top position, with solid passes, hard ground strikes and the ability to find the occasional submission.
Most importantly, Smolka is making substantial and visible improvements from fight to fight; at only 24 years of age, the best is yet to come from him.
Betting Odds
Smolka -120, Holohan +100
Prediction
As the line suggests, this is essentially an even fight. I favor the Hawaiian, though, for several reasons. Smolka is a more consistent striker, has a broader arsenal of takedowns and is unlikely to find himself in much trouble on the mat.
This profiles as a quick-paced fight both on the feet and on the ground, and unlike the Irishman, Smolka has no history of gassing out in frenetic, active fights. The pick is Smolka by decision.
Dustin Poirier vs. Joseph Duffy
5 of 5
Update
Due to a concussion suffered by Duffy, doctors have not cleared him to fight on Saturday, and the bout has been called off. The UFC's statement on the matter can be found here.
Lightweights
Dustin Poirier (18-4; 10-3 UFC) vs. Joseph Duffy (14-1; 2-0 UFC)
The powers that be in the UFC believe that Duffy might be the next big thing, and they've given him a huge opportunity to shine in front of the Dublin crowd.
The Irishman has been impressive since he entered the UFC, finishing Jake Lindsey and Ivan Jorge in the first round. Two prior wins in the Cage Warriors organization bring him to 4-0 since his lone professional loss in 2011, after which he took a three-year break to box professionally.
This will be Poirier's 14th fight in the UFC, and while he is still a young fighter (26), the clock is ticking on whether he will ever turn into a true contender. He came up short at featherweight, but a move to 155 pounds has him looking better than ever with brutal knockout wins over Carlos Diego Ferreira and Yancy Medeiros.
The winner of this bout will have an inside track at a bright future in the stacked lightweight division. Duffy would become the next big thing in the sport's hottest market overnight. For Poirier, this would undoubtedly be the most meaningful win in an up-and-down career that has consistently fallen just short of the elite.
Duffy is a well-rounded, aggressive and lethally dangerous fighter with high-level skills in every phase. A former professional boxer, he does his best work on the feet. Constant, unpredictable head movement and a tightly tucked chin make him difficult to catch cleanly as he works his way forward behind a crisp, hard jab.
A piercing straight right hand usually follows the jab, and he occasionally throws it as a lead as well. His left hook is equally crisp, and it is particularly dangerous when he throws it as a counter or uses the jab to draw his opponent's hands to the front of his face.
Duffy excels at countering in the pocket. His aggressive forward movement pushes his opponent toward the fence, and the threat of his long, straight punches draws out a response; he then counters with a gorgeous head-body combination or a well-timed knee.
Although he is already one of the division's most dangerous strikers, the rest of Duffy's game is equally formidable. A strong wrestler and clinch fighter who has improved even more since moving to Firas Zahabi's Tristar Gym in Montreal, he has lovely trips, nice shot takedowns and excellent defensive wrestling skills. This is likely the weakest part of his game, though.
On the mat, the Irishman is lethal. Most of his wins are by submission, and he has a technical guard-passing game that sets up a variety of topside submissions and quick back-takes. He isn't afraid to give up position for a submission, either, and his triangle choke in particular is especially dangerous.
In all phases, Duffy works fast. He routinely throws 15 to 20 strikes per minute, works in combination and has a good shot at producing enough volume to win a decision if he can't get the finish.
Poirier seems like he's been around forever, and with 13 UFC bouts under his belt, he has been. It's easy to forget, however, that he's still only 26 and continues to improve from fight to fight, particularly after moving up to lightweight.
The Louisiana native can do everything but is at his best on the feet. A devastating southpaw puncher with big power in both hands and legs, he is most comfortable while exchanging in the pocket, where he slings brutal left-right counter combinations to the head and body. Few fighters at 145 or 155 pounds can comfortably go shot for shot with Poirier at close range.
He is less imposing at distance and not terribly comfortable in a stick-and-move scenario but is still dangerous. He favors shift punches and kicks, starting with a left kick or straight, landing in the orthodox stance and then immediately continuing to throw. Pace is a strong suit, and so is aggressiveness.
The problem with Poirier's striking game is defense. He has improved but is still intensely hittable—and even more so than his preference for operating in the pocket would suggest. His head almost never moves off the center line, and even in the pocket he relies entirely on footwork and a double-forearms guard for defense. McGregor finished him by exploiting the predictable nature of that defense and working around it.
The rest of Poirier's game is excellent. Dirty boxing is probably the second-strongest aspect of his game, and his uppercuts, hooks and elbows in the clinch are vicious. He complements them with slick trips and throws.
His takedown defense is outstanding, and especially so for a fighter who spends so much time at close range. Shot takedowns are less his strong suit, and he has a bad habit of shooting from too far outside and giving his opponents too much time to sprawl.
Poirier is excellent on the mat. He excels at finding d'Arces, anaconda chokes and guillotines in transition. The combination of smooth passes, vicious ground strikes and submissions makes his top game devastating.
Betting Odds
Duffy -245, Poirier +205
Prediction
This is a tough fight to call, but it's hard to see how the American should be such a substantial underdog against an unproven fighter. Duffy is undeniably talented, but he has never fought anyone of Poirier's caliber in the UFC.
With that said, the matchup does seem to favor Duffy. His footwork, movement, awareness of the space of the cage and striking intangibles are all miles beyond Poirier's, despite his substantial experience against elite competition.
Most importantly, the American has a terrible habit of backing himself to the fence and then throwing to create space instead of using his feet to stay out in the center of the cage, and this plays directly into Duffy's hands.
The Irishman will back Poirier up with that piercing jab, let him throw his counters and then come back with well-placed shots around, under and through the American's tight guard. Duffy could easily find himself in trouble, however, if he's too willing to exchange with the harder puncher.
All of this assumes that Poirier will be happy to strike with Duffy, as he has been in practically all his fights. If the American uses his entire toolbox, however, he could make things substantially more difficult, particularly in the clinch. Duffy's takedown defense has thus far proved to be rock-solid, and it looks like a wash on the ground.
With those substantial caveats in mind, the pick is Duffy by knockout in the fourth round.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report. He can be found on Twitter.
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