NASCAR at Kansas 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for the Hollywood Casino 400
Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway marks the midpoint of the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup, as well as the middle race of Round 2 of the Chase.
A great deal is riding on this race for all of the 12 remaining Chase contenders.
First, Talladega looms ahead next week. If a driver finds himself in trouble after Kansas, the odds of mounting a comeback—short of winning—become much more difficult.
Second, three particular drivers who had a rough race at Charlotte last Sunday need a major comeback at Kansas, lest their Chase chances will likely be done heading to Talladega.
We’re talking of Matt Kenseth, currently last in the Chase (45 points behind series leader Joey Logano), and preceded in the rankings by Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-32) and Kyle Busch (-23).
But that doesn’t mean the other nine Chase drivers—not including Logano, who is already locked into a Round 3 berth—are completely safe, either. Kenseth is a good example of that, going from tied for first heading to Charlotte to last afterward.
Here’s how Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 shapes up:
By the Numbers: Kansas Speedway
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Hollywood Casino 400
Place: Kansas Speedway
Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
Time: 2:15 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBC, 1 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 267 laps, 400.5 miles (1.5-mile banked oval)
Defending winner: Joey Logano won this race last fall, while Jimmie Johnson won this year’s spring race at Kansas.
Youngest winner: Joey Logano on Oct. 14, 2014 (24 years, four months, 11 days)
Oldest winner: Mark Martin on Oct. 9, 2005 (46 years, nine months, zero days)
Youngest pole winner: Joey Logano on May 9, 2015 (24 years, 11 months, 15 days)
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on Oct. 4, 2009 (50 years, eight months, 25 days)
Most wins: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson (three each)
Most poles: all-time and active—Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne (three each)
Most top fives: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (11)
Most top 10s: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (15)
Lead lap finishes: all-time and active—Greg Biffle and Jeff Gordon (16 each)
Laps completed: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (4,981)
Laps led: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (596)
Most race starts at Kansas: all-time and active—Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman (19 each)
Race record: Denny Hamlin (144.122 mph) on April 22, 2012
Qualifying record: Kevin Harvick (197.773 mph) on Oct. 3, 2014
Best average start: all-time and active—Joey Logano (10.000)
Best average finish: all-time—Rusty Wallace (8.200); active—Jimmie Johnson (9.056)
TRACK NOTES:
- Total number of races at Kansas: 19
- Total number of different pole winners in Kansas history: 12
- Races won from pole: four
- Last race won from pole: Kevin Harvick on Oct. 6, 2013
- Number of race winners at Kansas: 12
- DNFs (most): all-time and active—Bobby Labonte, J.J. Yeley and Michael McDowell (seven each)
- DNFs (least): all-time and active—Paul Menard (zero in 13 starts)
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.
Key Storylines
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Laying it all on the line
While this is the second race in a three-race round, Sunday’s race could arguably be the most pivotal race of the playoffs. Drivers who fall way behind in the standings absolutely cannot think they can bounce back at Talladega next week. That’s why every driver will likely forget about the points and focus on just one thing Sunday: winning. Because whoever wins (unless it’s a non-Chase or already-eliminated Chase driver like Jimmie Johnson) gets an automatic berth into Round 3 and doesn’t have to worry about a make-or-break showing at ‘Dega.
Already on the bubble
Just one race into the second round of the Chase and several drivers are already on the elimination bubble heading into Kansas. Kenseth, Earnhardt and Kyle Busch all need a strong rebound race, lest their Chase will essentially be over even before they get to Talladega.
Where does Joey Logano go from here
After winning at Charlotte this past Sunday, Logano has a free ride to advance to the next round, is the points leader and is in a fairly comfortable position. But just because he knows he'll race in Round 3, that doesn't mean he can't have a bad race, either. Remember, Kenseth was part of a 12-way tie heading into Charlotte and went from tied for first to last in just one race. Logano won the fall Chase race at Kansas last year, and that helped propel him to the championship round. Will history repeat itself again on Sunday?
Process of elimination for Hendrick Motorsports
It’s not been an easy last few weeks for Hendrick Motorsports. Kasey Kahne, who became a father earlier this week, failed to make the Chase. Then, six-time Sprint Cup champ Jimmie Johnson was surprisingly eliminated after the first round of this year’s Chase. And now, heading to Kansas, Earnhardt is in a precarious position. It’s very possible that with Gordon being the only other Hendrick driver left in contention, we could potentially see HMS down to one—and possibly zero—drivers after Round 2.
How will the non-Chasers fare
Kansas could be a place where several non-Chasers make some noise for themselves. Biffle has two career wins there, Jamie McMurray was eliminated in the first round of the Chase and would love to play the role of spoiler, as well as guys such as Aric Almirola, who has been doing very well in recent weeks, and Kahne. We saw four non-Chasers finish in the top 10 at Dover two weeks ago. We could potentially see that many—and maybe even more—this Sunday.
Drivers to Watch
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Where to from here for Matt Kenseth
Kenseth went from hero to zero in just one race and finds himself not only 45 points behind series leader Joey Logano, but he’s also in virtually a win-or-else situation. Even if Kenseth can earn back 20 points in the standings with a strong run Sunday, he’ll still not be in a very comfortable position heading to Talladega. But if he wins, he can practically miss ‘Dega and still be fine.
Let’s not forget about Jimmie Johnson
Even though he’s been eliminated from the Chase, Johnson is always a threat to win at any track, particularly a 1.5-mile facility like Kansas. Having fallen short of his goal of a seventh Cup championship, he still has plenty to race for in the six remaining races.
Brad Keselowski
The 2012 Sprint Cup champion has become somewhat of a forgotten man this season as teammate Joey Logano has been the unquestioned star of Team Penske. Logano has four wins, including Sunday at Charlotte and the season-opening Daytona 500, while Keselowski has just one victory. Plus, Logano is locked into Round 3 of the Chase already. I keep waiting for a breakout race from Keselowski, but so far, nothing.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Maybe it was me, but Earnhardt looked so dejected after Charlotte, that I wonder if he really can get past Round 2. He’s trying to keep a positive outlook and spirit, but he could be setting himself up for yet another early career exit from the Chase if he doesn’t win at either Kansas or Talladega.
Sure, he’s had a great run on restrictor-plate tracks in the last couple of years, including winning at Talladega earlier this season, but Earnhardt can’t base his advancement hopes to Round 3 if he waits for ‘Dega or has a false sense of security that he can pull off yet another plate-track win.
Jeff Gordon
Six races remain not only in the season, but also in Gordon’s legendary Sprint Cup career. Of the tracks remaining, I’d put his best chances to finally earn that elusive first (and potentially only) win of 2015 are Martinsville and Phoenix. But he has to get to Round 3 to visit those tracks if he hopes to still be in championship contention. That’s why Kansas, while it has also been a good track for Gordon, may carry the most significance because a win would give him that coveted berth in Round 3.
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Favorites
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Matt Kenseth
He’s behind the eightball, sitting last in the Chase standings after the debacle that was Charlotte this past Sunday. Kenseth may be one of the circuit's quietest drivers, but he’s also one of the most confident drivers, as well. If he thinks he can win at Kansas and get an automatic berth into Round 3, he certainly can do it. And given 1.5-mile tracks are his specialty, that automatically makes him a favorite Sunday.
Kevin Harvick
Oh, geez, Harvick hasn’t won a race in two weeks. He’s long overdue, right? But seriously, Harvick is also one of the top drivers on 1.5-mile tracks. And with Kansas Speedway starting to come into its own as a multi-groove raceway after 2012’s repaving, Harvick may be the one driver to get the most out of Kansas on Sunday.
Carl Edwards
Hailing from nearby Columbia, Missouri, Edwards (photo) has long sought to win a Cup race at his “home track.” That puts him in the same boat as Emporia, Kansas, native Clint Bowyer, who also badly wants his first win at Kansas. Frankly, my fear is Edwards will have a bad race Sunday, leaving him to race himself into Round 3 by having a stellar performance at Talladega, a track that he has struggled at.
Kyle Larson
I still am convinced Larson will get his first career Sprint Cup win before the season ends. Kansas is a track where Larson can rim-ride (one of his specialties) along the top of the wall all day long. The key, though, is try not to do too much or get overly aggressive because just as likely as it is for him to win, it’s also equally likely he can destroy his day himself if he tries to do too much, too quickly. If Larson can pace himself, he could surprise a lot of people Sunday.
Jamie McMurray
Just like Edwards, McMurray is a Missouri native who has not had the greatest of overall records at Kansas. While I thought he would do better at Charlotte than he did, McMurray still has plenty of incentive to race for in the remainder of the Chase. And beating out Edwards and Bowyer to become the first “local” to win at Kansas would not only be a great accomplishment, but it would also give McMurray bragging rights that the other two would likely be very jealous of.
Dark Horse: Greg Biffle
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There’s something about Kansas that seems to bring out the best in Biffle, who is a two-time winner there.
He’s shown some encouraging signs over the last several weeks, and a strong run at Kansas could ultimately wind up being Biffle's biggest highlight of the season—as well as the overall Roush Fenway Racing organization.
And the Winner Is: Kurt Busch
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After picking Kyle Busch to win the last two races, I’m switching my pick to win Sunday at Kansas to older brother Kurt.
This is strictly a gut feeling on my part, but Busch has ridden under the radar so much this season that if he hopes to win his second career Sprint Cup championship, he’s eventually going to have to have his coming-out party.
And Kansas would be a perfect spot to do just that, putting Busch into Round 3 and potentially placing himself and teammate and defending Sprint Cup champ Kevin Harvick in a strong position to both advance to the championship round.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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