Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals are not known for their road prowess over recent seasons, and in fact are only 2-5 against the spread their last seven times out as favorites away from home. The Bengals will go off as road chalk when they visit the Bills in Buffalo Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Bengals opened as one-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report here.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.6-22.5 Bills

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincy stands as one of the last undefeated teams in the league after rallying to beat Seattle last week 27-24 in overtime. The Bengals trailed 24-7 heading into the fourth quarter, tied the game on a Mike Nugent field goal at the buzzer, then won it on a Nugent bank shot 11 minutes into the extra period.

Quarterback Andy Dalton, off to the best start of his career, hit on 30 of 44 passes last week for 331 yards and two scores, with one interception. Tight end Tyler Eifert caught eight balls for 90 yards and both Dalton touchdowns, and the Cincy defense sacked Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson four times and picked him off once.

So Cincinnati is off to its best start since 1988, which was also the last time it reached the Super Bowl. The Bengals are also 4-0-1 ATS on the season, after salvaging a push last week as field-goal favorites.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is 3-2 both SU and ATS after edging Tennessee last week 14-13. Playing without several key players on offense, the Bills trailed 10-0 late into the third quarter, but quarterback Tyrod Taylor scampered into the end zone from 22 yards out, then connected with Chris Hogan on a two-yard scoring pass with five minutes left to take the lead.

The defense then did the rest, forcing a Titans punt, then securing the victory with an interception with a minute-and-a-half to go in the game.

On the day, Buffalo outrushed Tennessee 127-97, and on the season,the Bills have now outrushed four of five opponents. That's a good way to cover spreads; so far this NFL betting season, teams that have won the ground battles are 42-21 SU and 41-20 ATS.

Smart pick

Cincinnati is rolling, while Buffalo is banged up, now forced to start EJ Manuel at quarterback in place of the injured Taylor. So despite their recent track record on the road the smart bet in this spot is the Bengals.

Betting trends

The Bengals are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games.

The Bills are 10-2 SU and ATS in their last 12 games against the Bengals.

The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.