Ranking the PGA Tour Golfers Ready for a Breakout in 2016
When it comes to ranking PGA Tour golfers set to have a breakout year in 2016, there are a lot of candidates—and even more criteria.
On one hand, Rickie Fowler or Jordan Spieth’s respective 2015 campaigns could be considered models for breakouts of the highest order. On the other hand, a young player who triples his career best in top-10 finishes at big tournaments could also be considered a breakout, albeit in a less glamorous sense.
For this list, we focus on players who are primed to become regulars near the top of the leaderboard and who can be expected challenge for multiple titles during 2016. They got their feet wet, put together at least one solid year of full-time tour action and showed us they’re ready to take the next step.
But which players are looking most likely to become breakout players in 2016? Will Brooks Koepka make an even bigger splash at the majors next season? Will he perform better than Danny Lee and Daniel Berger, who both topped him on the FedEx Cup leaderboard in 2015?
But before we rank the top contenders, let’s first look at the players who just missed the cut.
Honorable Mentions
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Robert Streb
Streb occupies a gray area when it comes to the term “breakout.” Did he have a breakout season in 2014, when he made 17 cuts from 21 starts, tied for second in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and broke the million-dollar mark in yearly earnings for the first time?
Or did he break out in the 2015 season, when he got his first PGA Tour win at the McGladrey Classic, claimed nine top-10 results and more than tripled his record earnings? If Streb were to win multiple big tournaments in 2016—or even a major—you could call it a breakout year, relative to his career to date. But then again, that’s a high bar.
Scott Pinckney
Scott Pinckney had a positive 2015 season. With only three top-10 finishes, it would be difficult to call it a breakout year, so he isn’t in the same boat as Streb in that regard. On the other hand, though, it also would be difficult to say, with confidence, that a year that featured 10 missed cuts and only seven top 25s is plausible foreshadowing for a breakout 2016.
Pinckney could turn heads next season, but there’s an equally good chance he’ll just have another year similar to this one. That’s why he’s only an honorable mention.
Carlos Ortiz
Carlos Ortiz is included here in the honorable mention section as something of a representative for all the young pros with a low threshold for what would constitute a breakout 2016 season. Ortiz finished the season ranked 93rd in FedEx Cup standings, so he’s on the radar. He also started 30 events this season, which is a huge improvement on his single appearance in 2014.
However, Ortiz only picked up one top-10 finish (a tie for ninth at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba). Technically speaking, he could have a breakout season in 2016 with a handful of top 10s, but that threshold for success is too low to be considered for this list.
6. Kevin Kisner
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World golf rank: 34
FedEx Cup finish: 21
Kevin Kisner has been around for a while—he turned pro in 2006 and made his first PGA Tour cut in 2011—but 2015 was the first year that could actually be considered the precursor to a potential breakout season.
Before this past season, Kisner never had a podium finish. Now he has three, and they’re all from tournaments that boasted strong fields. Kisner claimed second place at the RBC Heritage, second at the Players Championship and yet another runner-up medal at the Greenbrier Classic—all three in playoffs.
Overall, the 31-year-old doubled his record for most top-10 finishes in one year, earning six in 2015, and nearly quadrupled his personal record for earnings in one season. Add to that the fact that he survived through the entire FedEx Cup playoffs with respectable finishes at all four events (including a tie for 12th at the Deutsche Bank Championship), and it’s clear Kisner is close to a major breakthrough.
5. Justin Thomas
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World golf rank: 75
FedEx Cup finish: 32
The 22-year-old from Kentucky has been slowly but surely climbing into serious tour discussions—and 2015 was the year he made his biggest jump to date.
Thomas made seven PGA starts in 2014 (making three cuts) as a modest prelude to the 30 events he played this past season. Of those 30, he made 23 cuts—a 77 percent success rate—and earned 15 top-25 finishes.
Among his most impressive results in 2015 were a tie for fourth at the Quicken Loans National, a tie for fifth at the John Deere Classic, a tie for seventh at the Wells Fargo Championship and a tie for 13th at the BMW Championship.
Thomas only entered one major championship (the PGA), but he turned in a more-than-respectable tie-for-18th-place finish, suggesting there’s hope for more major involvement in the near future.
And as far as metrics are concerned, it’s always a nice confidence booster for a young player to see his earnings increase by more than $2 million from 2014 to 2015.
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4. Daniel Berger
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World golf rank: 44
FedEx Cup finish: 11
Daniel Berger turned pro just two years ago, but it took him one to get his feet wet.
In 2014, the 22-year-old played just one event. In 2015, he started 31. Granted, Berger only made 17 cuts, but he put up impressive numbers whenever he was invited to stick around for the weekend.
Overall, he had six top-10 finishes this past season, including taking second in a playoff at the Honda Classic, a tie for 10th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and another at the AT&T Byron Nelson. What’s most astonishing, though, is how the young man capped his biggest season to date.
In his final three starts—all of which were part of the FedEx Cup Playoffs—Berger tied for 12th at the Deutsche Bank Championship, took solo second at the BMW Championship and tied for 12th at the Tour Championship. (Just look at his final FedEx Cup rank.)
His detractors may point to the seven consecutive cuts he missed from early June to late August as evidence Berger isn’t ready for sustained success on tour, but there’s actually a better case to be made for the flip side of that coin.
Berger flubbed his lines during his FedEx Cup playoff debut at the Barclays, but then he rediscovered his best form and stayed alive week after week in a win-or-go-home scenario against the best field the PGA had to offer.
If that’s not a sign he’s prepped for long-term success on the roller coaster that is the PGA Tour, then nothing is.
3. Tony Finau
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World golf rank: 86
FedEx Cup finish: 43
Tony Finau has played intermittently on the PGA Tour since his debut in 2007. His first three attempts could be considered misfires, as the 26-year-old made one cut in 2007, missed one cut (from one start) the following year and missed another (also from his lone season start) in 2012.
And that was it…until this season.
In 2015, Finau exploded onto the scene with 22 made cuts from 31 attempts. The massive increase in number of starts is enough to suggest initiative by itself, but when you look a little further at his results, it’s clear Finau’s enthusiasm at the registration table was an extension of his effort on the practice greens.
This past season, he registered 16 top-25 finishes, including five top 10s. Among Finau’s most impressive results were a tie for eighth at the Memorial Tournament, a tie for 10th at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a tie for 16th at the Barclays.
Add to that a tie for 10th at the PGA Championship and a tie for 14th at the U.S. Open (his only two major starts of the season), and it’s clear Finau has what it takes to hang with the heavy hitters when it matters.
Expect to see him build on that foundation in 2016.
2. Brooks Koepka
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World golf rank: 12
FedEx Cup finish: 24
Brooks Koepka has been a cut-making machine since he really settled into the PGA Tour in 2014. That year, he stuck around for the weekend at 12 of the 16 events he started. This past season, Koepka improved on that record by completing 20 of the 23 events he started.
In 2015, he also picked up 14 top-25 finishes, eight top 10s and claimed his first-ever PGA Tour victory at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. What’s more, Koepka also played all four majors and had excellent showings at three of them.
After earning a respectable tie for 33rd at the Masters, he went on to tie for 18th at the U.S. Open, tie for 10th at the British Open and tie for fifth at the PGA Championship. Clearly the pressure of golf’s biggest tournaments is not getting to the 25-year-old, and that’s a great sign for a potential breakout player.
After all, what accomplishment gets a young player on the map faster than beating out the established order for a major trophy?
1. Danny Lee
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World golf rank: 37
FedEx Cup finish: 9
Danny Lee absolutely tore it up during the second half of the season, but his first half wasn’t bad either.
In the early months of 2015, the South Korean missed alternating cuts through his first seven events. But he also had some positive results, like a tie for seventh at the Valspar Championship and a tie for 17th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Once the calendar hit May, though, Lee transformed into a dangerous force on tour.
After tying for 13th at the Wells Fargo Championship and tying for 10th at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, he went on to win the Greenbrier Classic in a playoff and tie for third at the John Deere Classic one week later.
But Lee wasn’t finished yet with top-10 results. He went on to tie for fourth at the Quicken Loans National, tie for sixth at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and, most recently, tie for second at the Tour Championship to conclude the season.
The Tour Championship gives him short-term inspiration going into the offseason. His last five months prove that result wasn’t a fluke, while also giving him a nice, big wave of positive momentum he can ride into 2016. That could be the most crucial factor of all.
Danny Lee has become a regular contender on tour, and he’s here to stay.
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